Factoid

March 10, 2022

Russell Wilson

Wilson brings deep-ball ability to Denver

Russell Wilson is headed to the Broncos. This makes me a lot more interested in Denver’s wide receivers. They’ve got some talent, and Wilson is a lot better at delivering deep passes than anybody who’s played for that franchise in a long time.

To me, Wilson is one of the very best deep ball passers in the game, with unusual ability to drop the ball in and long-range rainbows. On those kind of throws, the first two guys I think of are Wilson and Jeff Blake (who was an underrated quarterback with the Bengals in the ‘90s, with the same kind of knack on those throws). To me, Wilson without question is one of the top half-dozen deep ball passers in the game right now.

With player chip technology, the league now publishes “Next Gen Stats” that weren’t available in the past. One number they list for each quarterback is his longest pass each season. Not the actual yards gained on the play, but the distance the ball traveled in the air. On these, they don’t factor in the distance the ball travels across the field or how far the quarterback has retreated in the pocket. Instead, they look at how far downfield (from the line of scrimmage) the receiver is when the ball lands in his hands.

Wilson in 2020 had the league’s longest throw (64.4 yards by their technology). Last year he had the 3rd-longest completion (62.2 yards). Wilson is short (5-foot-11), but he’s got a strong arm, along with good mobility, giving time for those opportunities to develop. On the chart below, you’re seeing only the longest completion from each quarterback from each of those seasons (if a quarterback dominated this category, with 10 completions of 60-plus yards, it wouldn’t be represented in this chart – just the longest for each guy).

LONGEST THROWS (last 2 yrs)
Year	Player	Yds
2021	Baker Mayfield, Cle.	66.4
2020	Russell Wilson, Sea.	64.4
2021	Justin Herbert, LAC	63.8
2020	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	63.4
2020	Justin Herbert, LAC	63.2
2020	Josh Allen, Buff.	62.8
2021	Russell Wilson, Sea.	62.0
2020	Matthew Stafford, Det.	61.8
2020	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	60.9
2021	Lamar Jackson, Balt.	60.8
2020	Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	60.3
2021	Taylor Heinicke, Was.	58.5
2021	Matthew Stafford, LAR	58.4
2021	Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	58.3
2021	Carson Wentz, Ind.	58.2
2020	Cam Newton, N.E.	58.0
2020	Carson Wentz, Phil.	57.4
2021	Zach Wilson, NYJ	56.8
2020	Derek Carr, L.V.	56.8
2020	Jared Goff, LAR	56.7
2020	Matt Ryan, Atl.	56.7
2020	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	56.4
2020	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	56.2
2020	Kirk Cousins, Min.	55.6
2021	Derek Carr, L.V.	55.6
2021	Joe Burrow, Cin.	55.6
2020	Tom Brady, T.B.	55.5
2021	Teddy Bridgewater, Den.	55.4
2021	Kirk Cousins, Min.	55.2
2021	Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.	55.1
2021	Josh Allen, Buff.	55.1
2021	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	54.7
2020	Ryan Tannehill, Ten.	54.6
2021	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	54.3
2020	Nick Mullens, S.F.	54.1
2021	Daniel Jones, NYG	53.5
2020	Baker Mayfield, Cle.	53.4
2020	Philip Rivers, Ind.	53.3
2021	Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.	53.1
2021	Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	53.1
2020	Lamar Jackson, Balt.	53.1
2021	Ryan Tannehill, Ten.	53.0
2021	Justin Fields, Chi.	52.5
2021	Jalen Hurts, Phil.	52.3
2021	Mac Jones, N.E.	52.2
2021	Matt Ryan, Atl.	52.0
2020	Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	51.9
2021	Tom Brady, T.B.	51.8
2020	Teddy Bridgewater, Car.	51.4
2020	Drew Lock, Den.	51.2
2021	Trevor Lawrence, Jac.	51.0
2021	Dak Prescott, Dall.	51.0
2020	Daniel Jones, NYG	50.9
2020	Drew Brees, N.O.	50.8
2020	Gardner Minshew, Jac.	50.6
2021	Sam Darnold, Car.	50.5
2021	Davis Mills, Hou.	50.4
2020	Andy Dalton, Dall.	48.3
2020	Sam Darnold, NYJ	47.6
2020	Joe Burrow, Cin.	45.6
2021	Jared Goff, Det.	44.8
2020	Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.	44.6

On another stat chart I have in front of me, I see that Wilson last year produced completions of 40-plus yards on 3.9 percent of his completions (about 1 out of each 25). That ranked 3rd, behind only the two quarterbacks who started in the Super Bowl. He’s always looking for those deep balls.

The deep ball is a quality that’s been missing from Denver’s offense. Over the last five years, the Broncos have had only 10 completions of 50-plus yards. In the same time period, Wilson has had 28 of those plays – about three times as many.

In the charts below, touchdowns are tagged with black dots.

DENVER: 50-YARD PASSES (last 5 yrs)
Year	Opp	Play	Yds
2021	L.V.	• Lock to Jeudy 92 TD	92
2019	Clev.	• B.Allen to Fant TD	75
2019	LAC	• Flacco to Sutton, TD	70
2018	Ariz.	• Keenum to Sanders TD	64
2021	Phil.	Bridgewater to Okwuegbunam	64
2020	Mia.	Lock to Patrick	61
2021	Jac.	Bridgewater to Sutton	55
2017	Ind.	• Osweiler to Heuerman TD	54
2019	Oak.	Flacco to Sanders	53
2019	G.B.	Flacco to Sutton	52

WILSON: 50-YARD PASSES (last 5 yrs)
Year	Opp	Play	Yds
2017	Jac.	• Tyler Lockett TD	74
2021	Ind.	• Tyler Lockett TD	69
2021	Tenn.	• Freddie Swain TD	68
2017	Hou.	Tre Madden	66
2018	Den.	Will Dissly	66
2021	Tenn.	• Tyler Lockett TD	63
2020	Dall.	DK Metcalf	62
2017	Jac.	• Paul Richardson TD	61
2019	Min.	• David Moore TD	60
2019	Car.	Josh Gordon	58
2021	Det.	Freddie Swain	58
2020	Mia.	David Moore	57
2020	Buff.	• David Moore TD	55
2021	Hou.	• Tyler Lockett TD	55
2021	Was.	Tyler Lockett	55
2020	N.E.	• DK Metcalf TD	54
2018	Car.	David Moore	54
2019	N.O.	DK Metcalf	54
2017	Ariz.	Doug Baldwin	54
2017	Hou.	Tyler Lockett	54
2019	T.B.	• DK Metcalf TD	53
2017	Hou.	Tanner McEvoy	53
2018	S.F.	• Tyler Lockett TD	52
2018	Dall.	• Tyler Lockett TD	52
2020	Phil.	DK Metcalf	52
2018	Den.	• Tyler Lockett TD	51
2021	Tenn.	Tyler Lockett	51
2020	Buff.	Travis Homer	50

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

The fit here with Denver looks nice. The Broncos are well stocked with wide receivers who can get downfield. They haven’t quite gotten Jerry Jeudy going yet, but he’s got considerable potential. Big Courtland Sutton looked like he might be developing into another Demaryius Thomas before injuring his knee in 2020 (Sutton didn’t look quite as good last year). Tim Patrick is also large and has done some good things for them. And KJ Hamler looked like he was going to be their best deep threw last year until missing most of the season with a knee injury.

I’m not sure that there will be a heavily featured guy who’ll dominate the targets, but Wilson should do a better job of bringing these guys to life.

—Ian Allan

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