Baker Mayfield, by all accounts, is done in Cleveland. He posted what felt like a goodbye on social media last night, with the Browns moving to potentially land Deshaun Watson. Even if those attempts fall short, the team seems like it will be moving onto to a new quarterback.

Things are up in the air for now, but it seems like Mayfield will be with a new team before long – maybe as a starter, maybe as a backup. He’s signed through 2022 at $18.8 million guaranteed. Some team probably will be interested in taking a one-year flyer on him at that price tag.

If this saves us having to watch anymore of Mayfield’s Progressive commercials, I consider it to be a good thing. (Has any NFL player ever gotten more off-field endorsements with less on-field production?)

Reclamation project quarterbacks have been a theme recently, with the Steelers signing Mitchell Trubisky and the Commanders trading for Carson Wentz. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are on the market, looking for jobs, and Mayfield can now be tossed into that mix.

It’s an arena where there’s a lot more misses than hits. Most recently, Wentz didn’t work out for the Colts and Sam Darnold went down in flames for the Panthers. Jared Goff went to Detroit last year, and that one perhaps can be called a wash. Goff is never going to develop into an average starting quarterback, but he arguably was about as good as could be expected last year for the Lions.

Below is a list of quarterbacks selected in the first round in the 32-team era. I won’t call them busts (Wentz and Goff helped their teams to Super Bowls, for example, while Blake Bortles had a season with 35 TD passes). But with all of these quarterbacks, for various reasons, they got to the point where the team regretted the selection and wanted to move on, trading, releasing or not re-signing them. And the list below shows how those quarterbacks fared the next season.

I don’t see many hits, either short- or long-term. Of these guys, only two posted top-20 fantasy stats in their first season on their second team. (Both Jay Cutler and Wentz ranked 14th among quarterbacks using standard scoring). Cutler got to an NFC Championship game, but I don’t think the Bears look back fondly on trading two first-round picks for him. (Cutler is a little different than most on this list, having had more success with his first team.)

The Steelers are among the biggest believers in the value of handing out second chances. In the last four years, they’ve signed Paxton Lynch, Dwayne Haskins and now Trubisky. Further back, they signed Todd Blackledge and had some success with Tommy Maddox. But the big picture indicates that it’s rare for a quarterback to fail with his original team, then later become the great quarterback that everyone was hoping for at the time he was drafted.

Unlikely, I think, that Trubisky somehow turns things around in Pittsburgh. And unlikely that Mayfield ever progresses beyond being a lesser starter.

Year PlayerYrPassTDPIntRunTDR
2006Patrick Ramsey, NYJ500000
2006Joey Harrington, Mia.522361215240
2007Byron Leftwich, Atl.52791270
2007David Carr, Car.663535590
2009J.P. Losman, Oak.600000
2009Rex Grossman, Hou.7330190
2009Kyle Boller, St.L.789936760
2009• Jay Cutler, Chi.4366627261731
2010Jason Campbell, Oak.623871382221
2010JaMarcus Russell, none4----------
2011Matt Leinart, Hou.65710-10
2011Vince Young, Phil.686649790
2012Tim Tebow, NYJ339001020
2012Brady Quinn, K.C.6114128660
2013Josh Freeman, Min.51900100
2014Blaine Gabbert, S.F.4381050
2014Brandon Weeden, Dall.330332-10
2014Mark Sanchez, Phil.624181411871
2015Sam Bradford, Phil.637251914390
2015Christian Ponder, none5----------
2016Robert Griffin, Cle.5886231902
2016Johnny Manziel, none3----------
2017EJ Manuel, Oak.526511150
2018Teddy Bridgewater, N.O.51181150
2019Blake Bortles, LAR6300-90
2019Josh Rosen, Mia.256715130
2019Paxton Lynch, Sea.-Pitt.400000
2020Jameis Winston, N.O.67500-60
2020Marcus Mariota, L.V.622611881
2021Dwayne Haskins, Pitt.300000
2021Mitchell Trubisky, Buff.54301241
2021Sam Darnold, Car.425279132225
2021Jared Goff, Det.63245198870
2021• Carson Wentz, Ind.635632772151

—Ian Allan