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Let's go, Buffalo

Howard, Miller help address weak spots

Among the flurry of moves made on the first official day of free agency, two that stand out for me were made by the Buffalo Bills. The splashiest one was signing pass rusher Von Miller away from the Rams, while a quieter -- but shrewd, I think -- took O.J. Howard away from Tampa Bay.

Howard's a former first-round pick who never put it together with the Bucs for one reason or another -- drops, injuries, the team not really committing to him. But he's also flashed significant potential at times, especially in his second season (2018), averaging 57 yards per game and 16.6 yards per catch, while catching 0ver 70 percent of the passes thrown his way.

A third-year breakout didn't happen, and a year later he tore his Achilles (plus the Bucs added Rob Gronkowski). But Howard is still just 27 years old. In an NFL landscape where C.J. Uzomah and Will Dissly are signing for $8 million per year (and Mo Alie-Cox is getting $6 million per year) I think Howard at one year and $3.5 million is a great investment.

The Bills have Dawson Knox, of course, and Knox caught 9 TDs last year. He's still going to be their main red-zone weapon at the position. But there's plenty of room for Howard to contribute to the passing game, not only as a blocker but as a receiver between the 20s. Over the last two seasons, the Bills have thrown 19 TDs to tight ends (5th in the league), but otherwise haven't used the position much. Only three teams have completed fewer passes to tight ends, and only three teams have fewer yards from the position. Howard's presence should mean more sets with 2 tight ends, and more overall receiving. If Knox were to pick up an injury at some point, he could be something special.

TEAM TE PRODUCTION, 2020-2021
TeamNoYardsAvgTD
Kansas City231281012.223
Las Vegas216246911.418
Miami213233210.913
Denver20620219.813
Baltimore191226211.818
Philadelphia190228112.014
Tampa Bay187227412.222
Cleveland185195010.519
Tennessee17616449.320
San Francisco176215912.314
Atlanta174201411.611
LA Chargers171189211.116
Dallas17116999.915
Chicago16816069.616
Pittsburgh16414138.613
NY Giants16415279.36
Detroit163167610.314
LA Rams156160610.311
Green Bay149157710.620
Seattle14914579.811
Houston147152310.411
Indianapolis146161911.115
Minnesota145154410.611
Washington14314049.812
Jacksonville14213879.84
Arizona124141211.411
Cincinnati11610799.37
New Orleans115132311.516
Buffalo100108910.919
New England96115112.011
NY Jets9394310.16
Carolina726569.13

The bigger move yesterday, and the one far more talked about, was the Bills handing a 32-year-old (33 next week) linebacker a six-year, $120 million contract. That's a lot of coin for a player seemingly on the downside of his career, one who the Broncos traded away just a few months ago.

But as is often the case with these deals, the guaranteed money and contract structure indicates the deal will be something well below that. It looks like about three years and $53 million in guarantees, so roughly $18 million per season -- appropriate for a top pass rusher. Which it seems Miller still is.

With the Broncos and Rams in his age 32 season, Miller had 9.5 sacks, and then added 4 more takedowns in Los Angeles' four playoff games. And it's a clear area of need for Buffalo, which hasn't had a top-10 pass rush since 2016 -- 15th and 11th the last two seasons. Miller should help chance that.

There have seen plenty of instances of top pass rushers continuing to perform at a high level at an advanced age. Since 2000, there have been 31 seasons of a player aged 33 years or older recording at least 8 sacks, so 1-2 per year, on average. Miller should be another of those players -- this year, and probably a couple more. (Data from pro-football-reference.com used in compiling this table.)

TOP SACK SEASONS, 33 YEARS AND OLDER
PlayerTeamSeasonAgeGSk
Trace ArmstrongMIA2000351616.5
Lorenzo AlexanderBUF2016331612.5
Michael StrahanNYG2005341611.5
Cameron WakeMIA2016341611.5
John AbrahamARI2013351611.5
Terrell SuggsBAL2017351611.0
John RandleSEA2001341511.0
Jason TaylorMIA2007331611.0
Julius PeppersCAR2017371611.0
Rob BurnettBAL2000331610.5
Julius PeppersGNB2015351610.5
James HallSTL2010331610.5
Cameron WakeMIA2017351610.5
Bruce SmithWAS2000371610.0
John AbrahamATL2012341610.0
Calvin PaceNYJ2013331610.0
Warren SappOAK2006341610.0
John AbrahamATL201133159.5
Willie McGinestNWE200433169.5
James HarrisonPIT201133119.0
Bruce SmithWAS200239169.0
Michael StrahanNYG200736169.0
Michael BennettPHI201833169.0
Kyle Vanden BoschDET201133168.0
Chris ClemonsJAX201433168.0
Greg EllisDAL200833168.0
Terrell SuggsBAL201634158.0
John RandleMIN200033168.0
Clay MatthewsLAR201933138.0
Bryant YoungSFO200533138.0
Dwight FreeneyARI201535118.0

The Bills of course took a hit yesterday when the pass-catching running back they targeted, J.D. McKissic, backed out of his deal to return to Washington. But there are other good pass catching running backs (including in the draft), and plenty of time to add to their backfield. (Some have likely heard the Saquon Barkley rumors.)

I like what the Bills are doing here. After back-to-back championship game losses, they're looking to get over the hump, and these moves are a nice start.

--Andy Richardson

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