Recently I posted an item showing the track record of quarterbacks selected in the first round of NFL drafts. It's where most of the league's starters (good and bad) come from. Now here are the best seasons turned in by quarterbacks drafted outside the first round -- if drafted at all.
Predictably, it's rarer to come up with success stories . Since 2000, 33 different quarterbacks have made it into the top 12 at the position, so about 1.5 per season. A handful of those guys are Hall of Famers (current or future) who did it multiple times: Brady, Brees, Favre, Warner, maybe Russell Wilson, and (less likely) Tony Romo. Another Cowboy, Dak Prescott, can perhaps move up into that general area.
But the vast majority are guys who had just a couple or a few good seasons, or in many cases just one. Tyler Thigpen, Derek Anderson, Jay Fiedler, Shaun King. Weren't drafted in the first round then, wouldn't be drafted in the first round now.
In the table, I've listed those 33 quarterbacks who had at least one top-12 fantasy season, with their best ones (FF rank) shown. Last year a pair of second-rounders, Derek Carr and Jalen Hurts, had their best seasons. In the last decade, five other non-first-rounders did so: Prescott, Cousins, Wilson, Dalton, Brees. But about half of the names on the list did it in the first few years of the century. It's increasingly rare.
TOP 12 QUARTERBACKS, 2000-PRESENT (NON-1ST RD) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rd | Year | Player | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | PPR | Rk |
2 | 2021 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 428 | 626 | 4804 | 23 | 14 | 343.0 | 12 |
2 | 2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 265 | 432 | 3144 | 16 | 9 | 365.6 | 9 |
4 | 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 388 | 596 | 4902 | 30 | 11 | 412.8 | 3 |
4 | 2017 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 347 | 540 | 4093 | 27 | 13 | 354.6 | 4 |
3 | 2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 339 | 553 | 3983 | 34 | 11 | 415.8 | 1 |
2 | 2013 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 363 | 586 | 4293 | 33 | 20 | 377.0 | 3 |
2 | 2012 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 422 | 670 | 5177 | 43 | 19 | 437.4 | 1 |
7 | 2011 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff. | 353 | 569 | 3832 | 24 | 23 | 311.1 | 11 |
3 | 2009 | Matt Schaub, Hou. | 396 | 583 | 4770 | 29 | 15 | 362.2 | 3 |
4 | 2008 | David Garrard, Jac. | 335 | 535 | 3620 | 15 | 13 | 285.6 | 9 |
7 | 2008 | Matt Cassel, N.E. | 327 | 516 | 3693 | 21 | 11 | 311.7 | 8 |
7 | 2008 | Tyler Thigpen, K.C. | 230 | 420 | 2608 | 18 | 12 | 271.7 | 12 |
6 | 2007 | Derek Anderson, Cle. | 298 | 527 | 3787 | 29 | 19 | 332.4 | 5 |
6 | 2007 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 398 | 578 | 4806 | 50 | 8 | 462.1 | 1 |
FA | 2007 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 335 | 520 | 4211 | 36 | 19 | 379.5 | 2 |
6 | 2006 | Marc Bulger, St.L. | 370 | 588 | 4301 | 24 | 8 | 317.5 | 5 |
FA | 2006 | Jon Kitna, Det. | 372 | 596 | 4208 | 21 | 22 | 322.0 | 3 |
2 | 2004 | Jake Plummer, Den. | 303 | 521 | 4089 | 27 | 20 | 338.7 | 5 |
8 | 2004 | Trent Green, K.C. | 369 | 556 | 4591 | 27 | 17 | 348.1 | 4 |
FA | 2004 | Jake Delhomme, Car. | 310 | 533 | 3886 | 29 | 15 | 327.4 | 7 |
9 | 2003 | Brad Johnson, T.B. | 354 | 570 | 3811 | 26 | 21 | 299.7 | 9 |
6 | 2003 | Matt Hasselbeck, Sea. | 313 | 513 | 3841 | 26 | 15 | 320.6 | 3 |
4 | 2002 | Rich Gannon, Oak. | 418 | 618 | 4689 | 26 | 10 | 376.1 | 2 |
4 | 2001 | Aaron Brooks, N.O. | 312 | 558 | 3832 | 26 | 22 | 339.4 | 4 |
2 | 2001 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 314 | 510 | 3921 | 32 | 15 | 337.7 | 5 |
2 | 2001 | Kordell Stewart, Pitt. | 266 | 442 | 3109 | 14 | 11 | 295.2 | 10 |
FA | 2001 | Jay Fiedler, Mia. | 273 | 450 | 3290 | 20 | 19 | 300.6 | 9 |
FA | 2001 | Jeff Garcia, S.F. | 316 | 504 | 3538 | 32 | 12 | 364.3 | 2 |
FA | 2001 | Kurt Warner, St.L. | 375 | 546 | 4830 | 36 | 22 | 393.5 | 1 |
8 | 2000 | Elvis Grbac, K.C. | 326 | 547 | 4169 | 28 | 14 | 337.5 | 6 |
5 | 2000 | Mark Brunell, Jac. | 311 | 512 | 3640 | 20 | 14 | 299.6 | 7 |
2 | 2000 | Shaun King, T.B. | 233 | 428 | 2769 | 18 | 13 | 277.8 | 12 |
4 | 2000 | Steve Beuerlein, Car. | 324 | 533 | 3730 | 19 | 18 | 281.1 | 9 |
From the 2022 NFL Draft, I'm expecting just a couple of first-round quarterbacks: Kenny Pickett, who's going to Carolina unless someone jumps ahead of them to take him, and Malik Willis. The other top prospects -- Matt Corral (pictured), Desmond Ridder, perhaps Sam Howell or Carson Strong -- I'm not sure there's another first-rounder. Teams who select them will need to hope they've pulled the next Derek Carr or Dak Prescott. Or maybe Favre or Brady.
--Andy Richardson