I have heard the suggestion that teams might be interested in trading up into the end of the first round to select a quarterback. But I don’t think it will happen.
The advantage, the theory goes, is that by selecting a quarterback in the first round, it comes with the advantage of the cost-controlled fifth-year option. And maybe that’s enough to sneak a quarterback like Matt Corral (pictured), Desmond Ridder or Sam Howell into the end of the first round. (The expectation is that Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett will be selected well before the end of the first round.)
But the guy has to be able to play. If a quarterback is a second- or third-round kind of talent, the advantage of that fifth-year option can become more of a pain than an advantage. The Panthers and Browns, for example, at this point are wishing they hadn’t exercised the options on Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, putting those guys on the books for a guaranteed $18.9 million this year. Seeing those mistakes fresh in front of their eyes, the Giants aren’t expected to pick up the option on Daniel Jones (that decision must be made by Monday).
Not that the fifth-year option doesn’t have any value. Lamar Jackson is slated to play this year on his fifth-year option, so it’s been a great tool for the Ravens. And the Cardinals are picking up the option on Kyler Murray (though his preference is to sign an extension before the start of this season).
If one of these quarterbacks in question – Corral, Ridder, Howell – is a Jackson or Murray type guy, the fifth-year option will be valuable. But I don’t believe a team will be thinking along those lines late in the first round.
Below see a list of all quarterbacks since the most recent labor agreement who’ve been selected in either the back half of the first round or at any point in the second round. I see two cases where teams traded up into the first round, perhaps influenced by wanting to pick up the fifth-year option tool. The Vikings did it with Teddy Bridgewater, and the Ravens did it with Jackson.
Three other teams have traded to select quarterbacks in the last 10 picks of the first round, but with those players (Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Jordan Love) I don’t think the fifth-year option was a factor. I think they just wanted to get the player before somebody else did. (And I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.)
With the names in front of me, I see three other cases where a quarterback was selected early in the second round, with that player then performing well enough that teams in hindsight wish they had traded up into the late first to get them -- Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Derek Carr. I do not see Ridder-Correl-Howell on the same level as those guys.
With the five traded quarterbacks below, two were selected by picks traded away by the Seahawks (Bridgewater, Lynch) and Eagles (Manziel, Jackson). Love was chosen with a pick that the Dolphins traded away.
| SECOND-TIER QUARTERBACKS (last 10 yrs) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Tm | Pk | Player | School |
| 2011 | Cin. | 35 | Andy Dalton | Texas Christian |
| 2011 | S.F. | 36 | Colin Kaepernick | Nevada |
| 2012 | Cle. | 22 | Brandon Weeden | Oklahoma State |
| 2012 | Den. | 57 | Brock Osweiler | Arizona State |
| 2013 | NYJ | 39 | Geno Smith | West Virginia |
| 2014 | Cle. | 22 | • Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M |
| 2014 | Min. | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville |
| 2014 | Oak. | 36 | Derek Carr | Fresno State |
| 2014 | N.E. | 62 | Jimmy Garoppolo | Eastern Illinois |
| 2016 | Den. | 26 | • Paxton Lynch | Memphis |
| 2016 | NYJ | 51 | Christian Hackenberg | Penn State |
| 2017 | Cle. | 52 | DeShone Kizer | Notre Dame |
| 2018 | Balt. | 32 | Lamar Jackson | Louisville |
| 2019 | Den. | 42 | Drew Lock | Missouri |
| 2020 | G.B. | 26 | • Jordan Love | Utah State |
| 2020 | Phil. | 53 | Jalen Hurts | Oklahoma |
| 2021 | T.B. | 64 | Kyle Trask | Florida |
—Ian Allan