For the first time ever, six wide receivers were selected in the top 20 of an NFL draft, and those guys will command plenty of attention in fantasy drafts. But if history is any indication, the receivers selected after the first round will be even better.

That sounds crazy. Guys like Garrett Wilson (pictured), Chris Olave and Drake London look like they’re going to be really good. And probably some of them will be. But if you work through the historical data, the results indicate that there will also be a ton of productive receivers who are chosen in the later rounds – and not at all. And with the pool of receivers coming from outside the first round being much larger, it will produce more great ones (even if the hit rate isn’t as high).

Consider the list below. It shows the top 50 wide receivers of the last 10 years. The top 50 seasons actually, with a limit of one per player (that way, we’re getting 50 different names – all guys chosen in the last 20 years or so). We can then go back and look at where those receivers came from.

Only 16 of the 50 were first-round picks (they’re bolded on the list). And of those 16, only half were chosen in the first half of the first round. So while some of these early receiver picks (a group that includes Jahan Dotson and Jameson Williams) will hit, the numbers suggest some of them won’t make a big impact.

Two thirds of the guys listed below weren’t chosen in the first round.

While we’ve got these names in front of us, we can also look at schools. It seems like every year there are Alabama and Ohio State receivers chosen in the first round. I can’t remember the last time there was a first round that didn’t include a Crimson Tide wide receiver. Yet on this list of 50 receivers, only three come from those schools.

Of the 50 receivers, 13 came from schools outside the Power 5 conferences, and I’ve got them tagged with black dots. The smaller school guys occupy five of the top 11 spots. There’s always going to be a tendency for those guys to be discounted in NFL drafts, with teams wondering about level of competition. When a receiver is playing in the SEC, he’s going against defensive backs who are more similar to what he’ll see in the NFL.

Note that this year, two of the league’s best offenses (Green Bay, Kansas City) used second-round picks on wide receivers from less-heralded schools – Christian Watson (North Dakota State) going to the Packers and Skyy Moore (Western Michigan) headed to Arrowhead. It would not be a surprise if they went on to have better careers than most of the wide receivers chosen in the first round.

The Packers have had a good track record of drafting and developing receivers, and they seem to feel pretty good about Watson – particularly his size, speed and blocking ability. Blocking seems to be more important to them than with most other teams. Watson probably will have a limited role in his first year (maybe hardly playing at all) but he looks like he might eventually develop into a much faster version of Allen Lazard. In the shorter term, he more likely will be used like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, running primarily deep routes. The combine measurables for Watson (size-speed) are almost identical to what MVS posted back in 2018.

There is, by the way, an interesting connection between Jameson Williams and Christian Watson, who are both in the NFC North. The Lions could have kept their picks and selected Watson at 34. Instead, they traded up with Minnesota, giving the 32nd and 34th picks (and there were other picks involved) to get up to 12. The Packers, having gotten shut out of the first wave of receivers, tried to trade up to 32nd to select Watson. The Vikings didn’t want to do that, but agreed when the same deal was offered for 34. They say you don’t trade inside your division, but he’s a rare pick that’s been the property of three different teams in the same division. If Watson is better than Williams, the Lions will be wondering why they didn’t just stay put (and if Williams is great, they’ll be patting themselves on the back for having the stones to move up).

With Moore, Kansas City doesn’t have any wide receivers that I’m excited about. Valdes-Scantling (who moves between these teams) is just a one-trick pony deep threat. Mecole Hardman has been there three years without ever looking like he’ll get over the hump. JuJu Smith-Schuster had a 111-catch season a few years back with the Steelers, but he’s drawn very little interest in free agency the last two years. He signed for only $3.3 million this year – teams don’t seem to think much of him. So there’s certainly a pathway for Moore to get on the field when he’s ready.

Overall, I’m not suggesting we should all go out of our way to select wide receivers from small schools who were selected outside the first round. As things stand right now, I think the first six rookie receivers drafted should be those six who were chosen with top-20 picks. But I take the chart below as evidence that when you see a less-heralded receiver playing well in the preseason, you at that point shouldn’t hesitate to move him ahead of receivers who were selected earlier in the NFL draft.

TOP 50 WIDE RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 10 YEARS
YearPlayerRdPkCollegeBest yr stats
2021• Cooper Kupp, LAR369Eastern Washington145-1947-16
2015• Antonio Brown, Pitt.6195Central Michigan136-1834-11
2015Julio Jones, Atl.16Alabama136-1871-9
2019Michael Thomas, N.O.247Ohio State149-1725-9
2020• Davante Adams, G.B.253Fresno State115-1374-18
2012Calvin Johnson, Det.12Georgia Tech122-1964-5
2015• Brandon Marshall, NYJ4119Central Florida109-1502-14
2021Deebo Samuel, S.F.236South Carolina77-1405-14
2014Demaryius Thomas, Den.122Georgia Tech111-1619-11
2018DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.127Clemson115-1572-11
2018• Tyreek Hill, K.C.5165West Alabama87-1479-14
2021Justin Jefferson, Min.122Louisiana State108-1616-10
2020Stefon Diggs, Buff.5146Maryland127-1535-8
2014Jordy Nelson, G.B.236Kansas State98-1519-13
2015Odell Beckham, NYG112Louisiana State96-1450-13
2014Dez Bryant, Dall.124Oklahoma State88-1320-16
2013Josh Gordon, Cle.2sBaylor87-1646-9
2018• Adam Thielen, Min.FA--Minnesota State113-1373-9
2013A.J. Green, Cin.14Georgia98-1426-11
2021JaMarr Chase, Cin.15Louisiana State81-1455-13
2016Mike Evans, T.B.17Texas A&M96-1321-12
2015Allen Robinson, Jac.261Penn State80-1400-14
2014Emmanuel Sanders, Den.382Southern Methodist101-1404-9
2018JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.262Southern Cal111-1426-7
2014Randall Cobb, G.B.264Kentucky91-1287-12
2012Andre Johnson, Hou.13Miami112-1598-4
2012Wes Welker, N.E.FA--Texas Tech118-1354-6
2013Alshon Jeffery, Chi.245South Carolina89-1421-7
2015Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.13Pittsburgh109-1215-9
2017Keenan Allen, LAC376California102-1393-7
2020Calvin Ridley, Atl.126Alabama90-1374-9
2013Eric Decker, Den.387Minnesota87-1288-11
2013• Pierre Garcon, Was.6205Mount Union113-1346-5
2021• Diontae Johnson, Pitt.366Toledo107-1161-8
2014Jeremy Maclin, Phil.119Missouri85-1318-10
2019Chris Godwin, T.B.384Penn State86-1333-9
2015Jarvis Landry, Mia.263Louisiana State110-1157-6
2016• T.Y. Hilton, Ind.392Florida International91-1448-6
2020DK Metcalf, Sea.264Mississippi83-1303-10
2012Reggie Wayne, Ind.130Miami106-1355-5
2013DeSean Jackson, Phil.249California82-1332-9
2012• Roddy White, Atl.127Alabama-Birmingham92-1351-7
2015Doug Baldwin, Sea.FA--Stanford78-1069-14
2018Robert Woods, LAR241Southern Cal86-1219-7
2020Tyler Lockett, Sea.369Kansas State100-1054-10
2021Hunter Renfrow, L.V.5149Clemson103-1038-9
2012• Vincent Jackson, T.B.261Northern Colorado72-1384-8
2014Golden Tate, Det.260Notre Dame99-1331-4
2019• Julian Edelman, N.E.7232Kent State100-1117-6
2012• Marques Colston, N.O.7252Hofstra83-1154-10

—Ian Allan