For the first time ever, six wide receivers were selected in the top 20 of an NFL draft, and those guys will command plenty of attention in fantasy drafts. But if history is any indication, the receivers selected after the first round will be even better.
That sounds crazy. Guys like Garrett Wilson (pictured), Chris Olave and Drake London look like they’re going to be really good. And probably some of them will be. But if you work through the historical data, the results indicate that there will also be a ton of productive receivers who are chosen in the later rounds – and not at all. And with the pool of receivers coming from outside the first round being much larger, it will produce more great ones (even if the hit rate isn’t as high).
Consider the list below. It shows the top 50 wide receivers of the last 10 years. The top 50 seasons actually, with a limit of one per player (that way, we’re getting 50 different names – all guys chosen in the last 20 years or so). We can then go back and look at where those receivers came from.
Only 16 of the 50 were first-round picks (they’re bolded on the list). And of those 16, only half were chosen in the first half of the first round. So while some of these early receiver picks (a group that includes Jahan Dotson and Jameson Williams) will hit, the numbers suggest some of them won’t make a big impact.
Two thirds of the guys listed below weren’t chosen in the first round.
While we’ve got these names in front of us, we can also look at schools. It seems like every year there are Alabama and Ohio State receivers chosen in the first round. I can’t remember the last time there was a first round that didn’t include a Crimson Tide wide receiver. Yet on this list of 50 receivers, only three come from those schools.
Of the 50 receivers, 13 came from schools outside the Power 5 conferences, and I’ve got them tagged with black dots. The smaller school guys occupy five of the top 11 spots. There’s always going to be a tendency for those guys to be discounted in NFL drafts, with teams wondering about level of competition. When a receiver is playing in the SEC, he’s going against defensive backs who are more similar to what he’ll see in the NFL.
Note that this year, two of the league’s best offenses (Green Bay, Kansas City) used second-round picks on wide receivers from less-heralded schools – Christian Watson (North Dakota State) going to the Packers and Skyy Moore (Western Michigan) headed to Arrowhead. It would not be a surprise if they went on to have better careers than most of the wide receivers chosen in the first round.
The Packers have had a good track record of drafting and developing receivers, and they seem to feel pretty good about Watson – particularly his size, speed and blocking ability. Blocking seems to be more important to them than with most other teams. Watson probably will have a limited role in his first year (maybe hardly playing at all) but he looks like he might eventually develop into a much faster version of Allen Lazard. In the shorter term, he more likely will be used like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, running primarily deep routes. The combine measurables for Watson (size-speed) are almost identical to what MVS posted back in 2018.
There is, by the way, an interesting connection between Jameson Williams and Christian Watson, who are both in the NFC North. The Lions could have kept their picks and selected Watson at 34. Instead, they traded up with Minnesota, giving the 32nd and 34th picks (and there were other picks involved) to get up to 12. The Packers, having gotten shut out of the first wave of receivers, tried to trade up to 32nd to select Watson. The Vikings didn’t want to do that, but agreed when the same deal was offered for 34. They say you don’t trade inside your division, but he’s a rare pick that’s been the property of three different teams in the same division. If Watson is better than Williams, the Lions will be wondering why they didn’t just stay put (and if Williams is great, they’ll be patting themselves on the back for having the stones to move up).
With Moore, Kansas City doesn’t have any wide receivers that I’m excited about. Valdes-Scantling (who moves between these teams) is just a one-trick pony deep threat. Mecole Hardman has been there three years without ever looking like he’ll get over the hump. JuJu Smith-Schuster had a 111-catch season a few years back with the Steelers, but he’s drawn very little interest in free agency the last two years. He signed for only $3.3 million this year – teams don’t seem to think much of him. So there’s certainly a pathway for Moore to get on the field when he’s ready.
Overall, I’m not suggesting we should all go out of our way to select wide receivers from small schools who were selected outside the first round. As things stand right now, I think the first six rookie receivers drafted should be those six who were chosen with top-20 picks. But I take the chart below as evidence that when you see a less-heralded receiver playing well in the preseason, you at that point shouldn’t hesitate to move him ahead of receivers who were selected earlier in the NFL draft.
| TOP 50 WIDE RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 10 YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rd | Pk | College | Best yr stats |
| 2021 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR | 3 | 69 | Eastern Washington | 145-1947-16 |
| 2015 | • Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 6 | 195 | Central Michigan | 136-1834-11 |
| 2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 1 | 6 | Alabama | 136-1871-9 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 2 | 47 | Ohio State | 149-1725-9 |
| 2020 | • Davante Adams, G.B. | 2 | 53 | Fresno State | 115-1374-18 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 1 | 2 | Georgia Tech | 122-1964-5 |
| 2015 | • Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 4 | 119 | Central Florida | 109-1502-14 |
| 2021 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 2 | 36 | South Carolina | 77-1405-14 |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 1 | 22 | Georgia Tech | 111-1619-11 |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 1 | 27 | Clemson | 115-1572-11 |
| 2018 | • Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 5 | 165 | West Alabama | 87-1479-14 |
| 2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 1 | 22 | Louisiana State | 108-1616-10 |
| 2020 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 5 | 146 | Maryland | 127-1535-8 |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 2 | 36 | Kansas State | 98-1519-13 |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 1 | 12 | Louisiana State | 96-1450-13 |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 1 | 24 | Oklahoma State | 88-1320-16 |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon, Cle. | 2 | s | Baylor | 87-1646-9 |
| 2018 | • Adam Thielen, Min. | FA | -- | Minnesota State | 113-1373-9 |
| 2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 1 | 4 | Georgia | 98-1426-11 |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 1 | 5 | Louisiana State | 81-1455-13 |
| 2016 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 1 | 7 | Texas A&M | 96-1321-12 |
| 2015 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 2 | 61 | Penn State | 80-1400-14 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 3 | 82 | Southern Methodist | 101-1404-9 |
| 2018 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 2 | 62 | Southern Cal | 111-1426-7 |
| 2014 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 2 | 64 | Kentucky | 91-1287-12 |
| 2012 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 1 | 3 | Miami | 112-1598-4 |
| 2012 | Wes Welker, N.E. | FA | -- | Texas Tech | 118-1354-6 |
| 2013 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 2 | 45 | South Carolina | 89-1421-7 |
| 2015 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 1 | 3 | Pittsburgh | 109-1215-9 |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 3 | 76 | California | 102-1393-7 |
| 2020 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 1 | 26 | Alabama | 90-1374-9 |
| 2013 | Eric Decker, Den. | 3 | 87 | Minnesota | 87-1288-11 |
| 2013 | • Pierre Garcon, Was. | 6 | 205 | Mount Union | 113-1346-5 |
| 2021 | • Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 3 | 66 | Toledo | 107-1161-8 |
| 2014 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 1 | 19 | Missouri | 85-1318-10 |
| 2019 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 3 | 84 | Penn State | 86-1333-9 |
| 2015 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 2 | 63 | Louisiana State | 110-1157-6 |
| 2016 | • T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 3 | 92 | Florida International | 91-1448-6 |
| 2020 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 2 | 64 | Mississippi | 83-1303-10 |
| 2012 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 1 | 30 | Miami | 106-1355-5 |
| 2013 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 2 | 49 | California | 82-1332-9 |
| 2012 | • Roddy White, Atl. | 1 | 27 | Alabama-Birmingham | 92-1351-7 |
| 2015 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | FA | -- | Stanford | 78-1069-14 |
| 2018 | Robert Woods, LAR | 2 | 41 | Southern Cal | 86-1219-7 |
| 2020 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 3 | 69 | Kansas State | 100-1054-10 |
| 2021 | Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 5 | 149 | Clemson | 103-1038-9 |
| 2012 | • Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 2 | 61 | Northern Colorado | 72-1384-8 |
| 2014 | Golden Tate, Det. | 2 | 60 | Notre Dame | 99-1331-4 |
| 2019 | • Julian Edelman, N.E. | 7 | 232 | Kent State | 100-1117-6 |
| 2012 | • Marques Colston, N.O. | 7 | 252 | Hofstra | 83-1154-10 |
—Ian Allan