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Volume receivers

Will Cooper's Kupp runneth over?

I was poking around with the numbers some on Cooper Kupp, trying to estimate how much statistical decline will happen this year. It’s not realistic, of course, to hope for another 145 catches. That’s just insane.

But as I look at previous receivers who’ve caught 120 passes (and there are 14 of them), they did a lot better as a group than I was expecting.

Two of them completely imploded, but injuries were involved. Wes Welker tore his ACL late in 2009, so for him to catch 86 passes the next season was more of an impressively accomplishment rather than a disappointment. And Michael Thomas had the ankle injury that shelved him for a bunch of 2020.

But look at the other 12 of these receivers. Four of them – a third – finished as the No. 1 overall receiver in their next season (using PPR scoring). The other eight all finished between 3rd and 7th. None of them were what you would call a disaster pick in a fantasy draft.

If I were walking into a draft tonight, I would think Kupp would probably be the guy I would pick at No. 2 overall, behind only Jonathan Taylor.

The numbers are below. Davante Adams also gets into this one, but he’s a different case, being relocated into a different team.

In the table below, the final column (the rank) shows where the player ranked among wide receiver in the particular year, using PPR scoring.

YearPlayerPrevious YrRecYdsTDPPRRk
1995Cris Carter, Min.122-1256-7122137117361.14
1996Herman Moore, Det.123-1686-1410612969291.63
1996Cris Carter, Min.122-1371-1796116310272.37
1996Jerry Rice, S.F.122-1848-1710812549295.11
2003Marvin Harrison, Ind.143-1722-1194127210281.55
2010Wes Welker, N.E.123-1348-4868487212.818
2012Wes Welker, N.E.122-1569-911813546291.47
2013Calvin Johnson, Det.122-1964-584149212305.26
2015Antonio Brown, Pitt.129-1698-14136183411392.21
2016Julio Jones, Atl.136-1871-98314096259.96
2016Antonio Brown, Pitt.136-1834-11106128412307.31
2019Michael Thomas, N.O.125-1405-914917259374.61
2020Michael Thomas, N.O.149-1725-940438083.995
2021Stefon Diggs, Buff.127-1535-8103122510285.57
2022Cooper Kupp, LAR145-1947-16?????
2022Davante Adams, L.V.123-1553-11?????

—Ian Allan

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