I was poking around with the numbers some on Cooper Kupp, trying to estimate how much statistical decline will happen this year. It’s not realistic, of course, to hope for another 145 catches. That’s just insane.
But as I look at previous receivers who’ve caught 120 passes (and there are 14 of them), they did a lot better as a group than I was expecting.
Two of them completely imploded, but injuries were involved. Wes Welker tore his ACL late in 2009, so for him to catch 86 passes the next season was more of an impressively accomplishment rather than a disappointment. And Michael Thomas had the ankle injury that shelved him for a bunch of 2020.
But look at the other 12 of these receivers. Four of them – a third – finished as the No. 1 overall receiver in their next season (using PPR scoring). The other eight all finished between 3rd and 7th. None of them were what you would call a disaster pick in a fantasy draft.
If I were walking into a draft tonight, I would think Kupp would probably be the guy I would pick at No. 2 overall, behind only Jonathan Taylor.
The numbers are below. Davante Adams also gets into this one, but he’s a different case, being relocated into a different team.
In the table below, the final column (the rank) shows where the player ranked among wide receiver in the particular year, using PPR scoring.
|RECEIVERS CATCH 120-PLUS PASSES -- THE NEXT SEASON|
|1995||Cris Carter, Min.||122-1256-7||122||1371||17||361.1||4|
|1996||Herman Moore, Det.||123-1686-14||106||1296||9||291.6||3|
|1996||Cris Carter, Min.||122-1371-17||96||1163||10||272.3||7|
|1996||Jerry Rice, S.F.||122-1848-17||108||1254||9||295.1||1|
|2003||Marvin Harrison, Ind.||143-1722-11||94||1272||10||281.5||5|
|2010||Wes Welker, N.E.||123-1348-4||86||848||7||212.8||18|
|2012||Wes Welker, N.E.||122-1569-9||118||1354||6||291.4||7|
|2013||Calvin Johnson, Det.||122-1964-5||84||1492||12||305.2||6|
|2015||Antonio Brown, Pitt.||129-1698-14||136||1834||11||392.2||1|
|2016||Julio Jones, Atl.||136-1871-9||83||1409||6||259.9||6|
|2016||Antonio Brown, Pitt.||136-1834-11||106||1284||12||307.3||1|
|2019||Michael Thomas, N.O.||125-1405-9||149||1725||9||374.6||1|
|2020||Michael Thomas, N.O.||149-1725-9||40||438||0||83.9||95|
|2021||Stefon Diggs, Buff.||127-1535-8||103||1225||10||285.5||7|
|2022||Cooper Kupp, LAR||145-1947-16||?||?||?||?||?|
|2022||Davante Adams, L.V.||123-1553-11||?||?||?||?||?|