Eighteen times in the last 20 years a rookie quarterback has posted top-20 per-game numbers – about once per season. But I don’t think we’re getting one of those guys this year.
Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral aren’t even in the conversation, I think, having fallen to the third round. Maybe Ridder and Corral start a few games, but not guys that anybody should be looking to draft (unless, I suppose, we’re talking about a SuperFlex league, with 40 quarterbacks selected).
Kenny Pickett can at least be discussed some, with the good chance of starting sooner rather than later. And the Steelers have some decent stuff around him.
But if we look at other quarterbacks who have put up top-20 per-game numbers in their first season, Pickett doesn’t really fit the profile.
Of those 18 guys, all but three have been top-10 overall picks. Pickett was drafted 20th by the Steelers. If other teams had more confidence in his ability, he would have been picked earlier. The three who weren’t selected with top-10 picks: Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Gardner Minshew.
We can also look at mobility. Of those 18, a third of them averaged over 30 rushing yards in their first season. Guys like Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Kyler Murray. Pickett can run around some, but he’s not that kind of scrambler.
For me, Pickett is not a consideration with a top-20 pick among quarterbacks for a 2022 league.
The 18 successful rookie quarterbacks are listed below. Per-game stats. Final column shows their per-game rank relative to other quarterbacks who started at least half the season.
ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WITH TOP-20 PER-GAME NUMBERS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
2003 | Byron Leftwich | 13 | 207.3 | .92 | 8.3 | .15 | 15.8 | 20 |
2006 | Vince Young | 13 | 158.9 | .85 | 40.6 | .54 | 18.8 | 9 |
2006 | Matt Leinart | 11 | 226.6 | 1.00 | 5.1 | .18 | 16.9 | 14 |
2009 | Matthew Stafford | 10 | 226.7 | 1.30 | 10.8 | .20 | 19.0 | 14 |
2011 | Cam Newton | 16 | 253.2 | 1.31 | 44.1 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
2012 | Robert Griffin | 15 | 213.3 | 1.33 | 54.3 | .47 | 24.2 | 5 |
2012 | Russell Wilson | 16 | 194.9 | 1.63 | 30.6 | .25 | 20.8 | 12 |
2012 | Andrew Luck | 16 | 273.4 | 1.44 | 15.9 | .31 | 22.9 | 10 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota | 12 | 234.8 | 1.58 | 21.0 | .25 | 22.2 | 16 |
2015 | Jameis Winston | 16 | 252.6 | 1.38 | 13.1 | .38 | 21.8 | 17 |
2016 | Dak Prescott | 16 | 229.2 | 1.44 | 17.6 | .38 | 21.2 | 17 |
2018 | Josh Allen | 11 | 181.8 | .91 | 55.0 | .73 | 22.8 | 13 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield | 13 | 271.1 | 2.08 | 10.2 | .00 | 23.0 | 11 |
2019 | Kyler Murray | 16 | 232.6 | 1.25 | 34.0 | .25 | 21.9 | 13 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew | 12 | 237.4 | 1.50 | 27.5 | .00 | 21.0 | 18 |
2019 | Daniel Jones | 12 | 250.8 | 2.00 | 22.8 | .17 | 24.2 | 8 |
2020 | Justin Herbert | 15 | 289.1 | 2.07 | 15.6 | .33 | 26.5 | 7 |
2020 | Joe Burrow | 10 | 268.8 | 1.30 | 14.2 | .30 | 21.9 | 15 |
2021 | Kenny Pickett | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan