Eighteen times in the last 20 years a rookie quarterback has posted top-20 per-game numbers – about once per season. But I don’t think we’re getting one of those guys this year.

Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral aren’t even in the conversation, I think, having fallen to the third round. Maybe Ridder and Corral start a few games, but not guys that anybody should be looking to draft (unless, I suppose, we’re talking about a SuperFlex league, with 40 quarterbacks selected).

Kenny Pickett can at least be discussed some, with the good chance of starting sooner rather than later. And the Steelers have some decent stuff around him.

But if we look at other quarterbacks who have put up top-20 per-game numbers in their first season, Pickett doesn’t really fit the profile.

Of those 18 guys, all but three have been top-10 overall picks. Pickett was drafted 20th by the Steelers. If other teams had more confidence in his ability, he would have been picked earlier. The three who weren’t selected with top-10 picks: Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Gardner Minshew.

We can also look at mobility. Of those 18, a third of them averaged over 30 rushing yards in their first season. Guys like Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Kyler Murray. Pickett can run around some, but he’s not that kind of scrambler.

For me, Pickett is not a consideration with a top-20 pick among quarterbacks for a 2022 league.

The 18 successful rookie quarterbacks are listed below. Per-game stats. Final column shows their per-game rank relative to other quarterbacks who started at least half the season.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WITH TOP-20 PER-GAME NUMBERS
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2003Byron Leftwich13207.3.928.3.1515.820
2006Vince Young13158.9.8540.6.5418.89
2006Matt Leinart11226.61.005.1.1816.914
2009Matthew Stafford10226.71.3010.8.2019.014
2011Cam Newton16253.21.3144.1.8827.84
2012Robert Griffin15213.31.3354.3.4724.25
2012Russell Wilson16194.91.6330.6.2520.812
2012Andrew Luck16273.41.4415.9.3122.910
2015Marcus Mariota12234.81.5821.0.2522.216
2015Jameis Winston16252.61.3813.1.3821.817
2016Dak Prescott16229.21.4417.6.3821.217
2018Josh Allen11181.8.9155.0.7322.813
2018Baker Mayfield13271.12.0810.2.0023.011
2019Kyler Murray16232.61.2534.0.2521.913
2019Gardner Minshew12237.41.5027.5.0021.018
2019Daniel Jones12250.82.0022.8.1724.28
2020Justin Herbert15289.12.0715.6.3326.57
2020Joe Burrow10268.81.3014.2.3021.915
2021Kenny Pickett???????

—Ian Allan