Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson. They were all terrible as rookies. What are the chances of any of them putting up viable numbers in their second season?
With Wilson, they’ve been stacking a lot of weapons around him, drafting Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, along with signing a pair of starter-caliber tight ends. The receiving corps there looked reasonable enough even before the additions, with Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios coming back.
With Fields, the supporting cast doesn’t look as good (lesser receivers, iffy offensive line) but there’s a mobility dimension. Fields ran for at least 35 yards in each of his last six full games last year. And Fields (unlike the other two) picked up some as a passer late last season, averaging 267 passing yards in his last three full games, with 4 TDs.
Lawrence came into the league considered to be a generational prospect. While he hasn’t played at that level yet, he could be sparked by a new coaching staff and some new teammates. (I still find him to be the most intriguing of the three.)
If any of these quarterbacks puts up top-15 numbers this year, however, that will be contrary to what usually happens.
In the last 20 years, 11 other rookie quarterbacks have finished with bottom-5 per-game numbers (using standard scoring) then come back and started at least half of their second season. Only two of those quarterbacks in their second year and finished higher than 20th in per-game production. (That’s using standard scoring.) Over half of these 11 quarterbacks again finished with bottom-10 numbers, while three moved up to 20th-21st.
Only two have pulled the big switcheroo. Carson Wentz in 2017 moved all the way up to 2nd. With 33 TDs in 13 games, he was on his way to MVP honors until missing the final three games with a knee injury. Wentz, for whatever it’s worth, was coached that year by the same guy who’s coaching Lawrence now (Doug Pederson). Mitchell Trubisky was the other big upward mover, climbing to 10th in per-game production in his second season (he was helped along by rushing production).
Maybe something happens in the preseason that changes my mind, but right now I see Lawrence and Fields as modest second quarterbacks in a typical 12-team draft – dart-throw kind of draft picks, where you’re hoping you might stumble onto something. And Wilson, I don’t think I can get in my top 24 right now, so he would be a third quarterback in my eyes. I typically prefer to carry two quarterbacks, but if I had a lesser second quarterback (perhaps Fields or Tua Tagovailoa) it would make some sense to carry Wilson for a few weeks to see if he might have some value.
| STRUGGLING ROOKIE QBs (the next season) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | Run | TD | Pts | Rk |
| 2003 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 16 | 180.0 | 5.4 | 1.06 | 14.0 | 27 |
| 2003 | David Carr, Hou. | 11 | 180.7 | 11.0 | 1.00 | 14.5 | 26 |
| 2004 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 16 | 159.9 | 11.8 | .88 | 12.9 | 31 |
| 2006 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 16 | 190.7 | 8.8 | 1.25 | 15.5 | 21 |
| 2008 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 14 | 192.8 | 8.4 | 1.00 | 15.0 | 24 |
| 2010 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 16 | 205.7 | 6.6 | 1.25 | 16.4 | 23 |
| 2012 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 10 | 166.2 | 5.6 | .90 | 12.9 | 31 |
| 2013 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 244.6 | 14.9 | 1.56 | 20.1 | 20 |
| 2015 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 249.2 | 8.6 | 2.00 | 21.4 | 20 |
| 2017 | • Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 253.5 | 23.0 | 2.54 | 25.7 | 2 |
| 2018 | • Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 230.2 | 30.1 | 1.93 | 23.2 | 10 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan