We talk a lot about the devaluing of running backs, not only with them having a difficult time getting paid, but being selected later in the drafts; fewer first-round picks these days. Accordingly, better players should slip into the later rounds of the NFL Draft, and make an impact in fantasy leagues.
This year, 17 of the 23 running backs drafted were selected in the fourth through seventh rounds. It's a statement about a draft class that wasn't highly regarded, to be sure, but also about the general value of the position -- teams don't tend to use premium picks on running backs as often. That doesn't mean some of those later selections won't make an impact early on. It's happening more frequently now than it used to, suggesting the talent slipping into the later rounds is better than it once was.
I took a look at the last 20 years of Day 3 picks (running backs drafted in the last four rounds). I included their first two seasons in the league, so not just rookies but also Year 2 players. And yes, it's more common for those backs to be significant fantasy backs these days.
There have been 32 top-30 seasons by first- or second-year backs drafted from the fourth round on in the last 20 years. Two-thirds of those seasons (22 of 32) were from players drafted in the last 10 years. That includes a pair from 2o21, Michael Carter and Elijah Mitchell. Just 10 were selected in the previous 10 years. So it's twice as likely these days.
| TOP-30 SEASONS FROM DAY 3 RUNNING BACKS, 2002-2021 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | G | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 6 | 2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 11 | 207 | 963 | 19 | 137 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | 2021 | Michael Carter, NYJ | 14 | 147 | 639 | 36 | 325 | 4 | 29 |
| 7 | 2020 | Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 10 | 142 | 584 | 41 | 388 | 5 | 25 |
| 4 | 2018 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 16 | 99 | 444 | 71 | 725 | 8 | 11 |
| 7 | 2018 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 14 | 247 | 1151 | 20 | 163 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | 2018 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 12 | 195 | 908 | 17 | 103 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | 2018 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 12 | 133 | 728 | 26 | 206 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | 2017 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 16 | 87 | 370 | 53 | 353 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 15 | 252 | 1313 | 29 | 298 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | 2017 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 16 | 276 | 1122 | 23 | 125 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | 2017 | Alex Collins, Balt. | 15 | 212 | 973 | 23 | 187 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | 2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 16 | 174 | 612 | 31 | 265 | 5 | 29 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 15 | 260 | 1272 | 27 | 151 | 8 | 11 |
| 4 | 2015 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 16 | 137 | 514 | 45 | 353 | 3 | 29 |
| 4 | 2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 16 | 148 | 537 | 22 | 279 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | 2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 15 | 265 | 1056 | 73 | 578 | 14 | 1 |
| 4 | 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 16 | 217 | 721 | 18 | 130 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | 2014 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 12 | 201 | 660 | 46 | 395 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 14 | 250 | 973 | 26 | 141 | 8 | 21 |
| 6 | 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 15 | 118 | 652 | 39 | 371 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | 2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 16 | 335 | 1613 | 11 | 77 | 13 | 7 |
| 6 | 2013 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 16 | 276 | 1275 | 9 | 78 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | 2011 | Roy Helu, Was. | 15 | 151 | 640 | 49 | 379 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | 2012 | Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl. | 16 | 94 | 362 | 53 | 402 | 2 | 29 |
| 5 | 2009 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 16 | 143 | 598 | 63 | 428 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | 2009 | Justin Forsett, Sea. | 16 | 114 | 619 | 41 | 350 | 5 | 28 |
| 4 | 2006 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 16 | 135 | 654 | 23 | 196 | 16 | 19 |
| 4 | 2005 | Mewelde Moore, Min. | 16 | 155 | 662 | 37 | 339 | 4 | 26 |
| 4 | 2004 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 15 | 302 | 1188 | 68 | 588 | 14 | 3 |
| 4 | 2003 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 14 | 238 | 1031 | 47 | 351 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | 2004 | Onterrio Smith, Min. | 11 | 124 | 544 | 36 | 394 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | 2003 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 13 | 215 | 957 | 21 | 146 | 9 | 21 |
Most of these seasons (24 of 32) were put up by fourth- or fifth-round picks. Far less likely you'll pull a starter out of the sixth and seventh rounds (although Mitchell was a sixth-rounder, as was Index hero Alfred Morris). So using a late-rounder in fantasy drafts on Keaontay Ingram (Arizona) or Tyler Badie (Baltimore) doesn't look too promising, at least statistically.
Your chances of hitting are better from the fourth and fifth, and I admit I've been scooping up some of those guys in early drafts or dynasty leagues. Everyone knows about potential Houston starter Dameon Pierce and likely Chargers No. 2 Isaiah Spiller; those guys aren't making it out of the middle rounds of fantasy leagues. I've been taking Snoop Conner (pictured; Jacksonville fifth-rounder who could have a major role if either James Robinson or Travis Etienne is slowed coming back from serious injury) and Zamir White (possible No. 2 in Las Vegas, depending whether Kenyan Drake has fans in the new regime as anything more than a third-down back, or if they want to shed his absurd contract). I would have mentioned Rams fifth-rounder Kyren Williams, but he broke his foot in practice last week, reducing his chance of any kind of early role.
Anyway, I think it can be said that there is value in these later-round running backs. Today's fourth-rounders might well have been drafted in the third round 10 years ago. There are some potential fantasy starters in these rounds.
--Andy Richardson