We have debated in this space the effectiveness of teams drafting receivers. Sometimes it seems like the Steelers and Packers are the best at picking and developing them, while it seems like the Patriots are the worst. So I parsed some of the numbers on this topic.
There are various ways to grade picks, and I won’t try to argue that what I’m laying out here is the best. It’s more of just a stab at it.
I started by tossing out all wide receivers drafted after the first three rounds. Those top 100 picks, those are the ones that count – that’s the area where you’re taking a guy with the expectation he’s going to help your team.
I also tossed out work by players for other teams. That is, if a player caught 100 passes and 10 touchdowns for his second NFL team, that’s disregarded. I’m looking only for the best production for the team that made the draft pick.
I’m looking only at numbers since 2010 (trying to get a sense of what current teams are doing). So in the 2010-2021 window, I’m pulling out the best season for each wide receiver who was drafted.
The chart below shows the average production of wide receivers picked in the first three rounds by each franchise. And there’s one other number in there showing how many of those receivers ever had a top-30 season using PPR scoring.
The way I’ve got it set up, the Falcons come out on top, but in a sneaky way. They’ve used a league-low two early picks on wide receivers (Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley), and they’ve both had good seasons).
Seven teams had gotten top-30 seasons out of more than half of the receivers they’ve selected in the first three rounds. That includes all four teams in the NFC South (but the Saints and Bucs each picked only one more receiver than the Falcons). I’ve got those teams in bold.
Four other teams had gotten top-30 seasons out of half of the receivers they’ve selected in the first three rounds. That includes the Steelers and Packers (Pittsburgh’s best receiver pick, Antonio Brown, doesn’t factor in here because he was selected long after those first three rounds).
Three teams haven’t drafted any receivers in the first three rounds who’ve put up top-30 numbers: Jets, Patriots and Kansas City. I’ve got them tagged with black dots. (KC, like Pittsburgh, had a big hit with a receiver selected later – Tyreek Hill). So probably best for now to keeps expectations modest for receiver prospects like Skyy Moore (pictured).
Overall, there have been 159 wide receivers picked in the first three rounds since 2010. About 39 percent of those players have put up a top-30 numbers in a season (at least for the team that drafted them).
| AVERAGE PRODUCTION OF DRAFTED RECEIVERS (best season) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Picks | No | Yards | TD | PPR | 30? | Pct |
| Atlanta | 2 | 113 | 1623 | 9.0 | 329.3 | 2 | 100% |
| New Orleans | 3 | 87 | 1115 | 7.0 | 240.5 | 2 | 67% |
| Dallas | 4 | 72 | 1108 | 6.8 | 223.5 | 3 | 75% |
| Tampa Bay | 3 | 71 | 1032 | 8.0 | 221.8 | 2 | 67% |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 68 | 988 | 6.6 | 206.6 | 4 | 57% |
| Jacksonville | 5 | 68 | 945 | 7.2 | 205.3 | 3 | 60% |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 65 | 897 | 6.0 | 190.5 | 3 | 50% |
| Minnesota | 3 | 63 | 796 | 6.7 | 182.2 | 1 | 33% |
| Denver | 8 | 56 | 817 | 6.3 | 175.6 | 4 | 50% |
| Green Bay | 4 | 56 | 711 | 8.0 | 175.3 | 2 | 50% |
| NY Giants | 5 | 61 | 785 | 4.0 | 163.7 | 1 | 20% |
| Indianapolis | 5 | 59 | 784 | 4.2 | 162.4 | 2 | 40% |
| Cleveland | 5 | 54 | 782 | 4.0 | 155.8 | 2 | 40% |
| Detroit | 3 | 45 | 702 | 6.3 | 153.2 | 1 | 33% |
| Tennessee | 7 | 53 | 736 | 4.4 | 153.1 | 3 | 43% |
| Carolina | 7 | 53 | 680 | 4.4 | 147.6 | 4 | 57% |
| Chicago | 3 | 53 | 755 | 3.0 | 146.8 | 1 | 33% |
| LA Chargers | 4 | 47 | 634 | 6.0 | 146.4 | 1 | 25% |
| Buffalo | 5 | 48 | 630 | 5.0 | 141.2 | 1 | 20% |
| Arizona | 7 | 52 | 659 | 3.7 | 140.1 | 3 | 43% |
| LA Rams | 7 | 47 | 613 | 5.3 | 140.0 | 2 | 29% |
| Miami | 6 | 54 | 596 | 4.3 | 139.8 | 3 | 50% |
| Las Vegas | 3 | 43 | 703 | 3.7 | 135.7 | 1 | 33% |
| Seattle | 7 | 45 | 591 | 4.6 | 131.1 | 3 | 43% |
| Baltimore | 6 | 48 | 615 | 3.5 | 130.3 | 2 | 33% |
| Houston | 6 | 42 | 563 | 4.0 | 121.8 | 1 | 17% |
| Washington | 4 | 43 | 582 | 3.3 | 120.7 | 1 | 25% |
| San Francisco | 5 | 33 | 524 | 5.2 | 116.4 | 1 | 20% |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 40 | 513 | 4.0 | 115.5 | 3 | 43% |
| • Kansas City | 4 | 41 | 466 | 3.0 | 105.6 | 0 | 0% |
| • New England | 3 | 24 | 290 | 2.0 | 65.3 | 0 | 0% |
| • NY Jets | 5 | 21 | 287 | 1.6 | 59.3 | 0 | 0% |
—Ian Allan