If you’re looking for an offense that will start the season strong, how about the Eagles and Chargers? They’ve got favorable schedules for the first month of the year.
Looking at the first five games for each team, the Eagles rank No. 1, with opponents having a win-loss record of 32-52-1 last year. And those opponents allowed an average of 25.3 points per game last year, 2nd-most. Yet another reason that I am interested in Jalen Hurts (pictured), despite his limitations – his game translates well for fantasy.
The Browns have the 2nd-easiest win-loss schedule (in the first five weeks), and with the most points allowed, but they’ll likely be starting Jacoby Brissett in those games.
Only one other team ranks in the top 5 in both of these categories: the Chargers (with opponents going 37-48-0 in wins, with 24.5 points allowed). I may be in the minority, but I think I like Justin Herbert more than Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
The Jaguars also grade out favorably in both categories. To me, that looks like a sleeper offense, with Trevor Lawrence potentially looking a lot more like the generational talent many expected him to be last year. I would be comfortable with Lawrence as my second quarterback in a typical league.
On the other end of the spectrum, three teams rank in the bottom-5 for schedule difficulty in the first five weeks of the season, and all three have offenses that people are excited about: Bucs, Rams, Raiders. Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr are all better quarterbacks than Hurts, but for fantasy purposes, I like Hurts better than those guys.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (G 1-5) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Philadelphia | 32 | 52 | 1 | .382 |
Houston | 34 | 51 | 0 | .400 |
Cleveland | 34 | 50 | 1 | .406 |
LA Chargers | 37 | 48 | 0 | .435 |
San Francisco | 37 | 48 | 0 | .435 |
Seattle | 37 | 47 | 1 | .441 |
Jacksonville | 38 | 47 | 0 | .447 |
Indianapolis | 38 | 47 | 0 | .447 |
Chicago | 39 | 46 | 0 | .459 |
Washington | 39 | 45 | 1 | .465 |
New England | 40 | 45 | 0 | .471 |
Denver | 40 | 45 | 0 | .471 |
Detroit | 40 | 45 | 0 | .471 |
Green Bay | 40 | 45 | 0 | .471 |
Tennessee | 41 | 44 | 0 | .482 |
Minnesota | 41 | 43 | 1 | .488 |
Miami | 42 | 43 | 0 | .494 |
Pittsburgh | 42 | 43 | 0 | .494 |
Cincinnati | 42 | 42 | 1 | .500 |
New Orleans | 42 | 41 | 2 | .506 |
Baltimore | 43 | 42 | 0 | .506 |
Carolina | 43 | 42 | 0 | .506 |
NY Jets | 44 | 40 | 1 | .524 |
Dallas | 46 | 39 | 0 | .541 |
Arizona | 48 | 37 | 0 | .565 |
NY Giants | 48 | 37 | 0 | .565 |
Atlanta | 50 | 35 | 0 | .588 |
Buffalo | 50 | 34 | 1 | .594 |
Las Vegas | 51 | 34 | 0 | .600 |
LA Rams | 51 | 34 | 0 | .600 |
Kansas City | 52 | 33 | 0 | .612 |
Tampa Bay | 54 | 31 | 0 | .635 |
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (G 1-5) | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
Cleveland | 26.16 |
Philadelphia | 25.29 |
Jacksonville | 24.65 |
LA Chargers | 24.51 |
Chicago | 23.88 |
Cincinnati | 23.82 |
Washington | 23.78 |
Houston | 23.65 |
New England | 23.62 |
New Orleans | 23.54 |
Denver | 23.38 |
Kansas City | 23.32 |
Arizona | 23.11 |
Dallas | 22.95 |
Indianapolis | 22.93 |
Detroit | 22.89 |
Tennessee | 22.86 |
Green Bay | 22.79 |
Minnesota | 22.74 |
Seattle | 22.54 |
NY Jets | 22.47 |
Miami | 22.31 |
NY Giants | 22.28 |
Buffalo | 22.22 |
Baltimore | 22.08 |
Pittsburgh | 22.06 |
San Francisco | 22.01 |
Las Vegas | 21.94 |
Tampa Bay | 21.82 |
LA Rams | 21.61 |
Carolina | 21.42 |
Atlanta | 20.76 |
—Ian Allan