Six times in the last two years, a quarterback on a new team has finished with top-20 numbers, and it’s a safe bet that we’re going to have a least a couple of those guys again this season. There likely will be eight starting quarterbacks on opening day who finished last season with other teams.
While there may be some issues with learning new offenses and adjusting to new teammates, good quarterbacks are good quarterbacks. The last two Super Bowls have been won by transplants (Brady, Stafford), and both of those guys also threw 40-plus touchdowns.
If we widen the scope and look at the last 20 years, there have been 10 quarterbacks who finished with top-10 numbers in their first season with a new team. (That’s not including rookies – just relocated veterans.) Another 22 finished with top-20 numbers.
Russell Wilson is the headliner transplant this year. Given his legendary durability, he looks like a safe choice to finish somewhere around 10th among quarterbacks. If they open up the offense and things click, he could be a top-5 guy.
Deshaun Watson might be even better, once he gets on the field, but I’ll be surprised if he plays in more than half of the upcoming season. (I’m not sure that he’s going to play at all.)
Matt Ryan is the other notable transplant, but with him, I think we’re looking more at a guy who’ll finish in the second 10, giving his limited rushing production and the likelihood that the Colts will run the ball at times.
I think the only other relocated starter who might be one of the first 20 quarterbacks picked in some drafts is Carson Wentz. I worry about his tendency to hold the ball too long, particularly with a lesser line in front of him, but the Commanders at least have a decent group of pass catchers, with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown and tight end Logan Thomas.
Other transplant quarterbacks who might a good number of games this year: Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, Marcus Mariota and Drew Lock. I don’t expect any of those guys will be among the first 20 drafts. Perhaps Mayfield sneaks into the top 25 on some draft boards.
In the chart below, you’re looking at all transplant quarterbacks who finished with top-20 numbers in the last 20 years. Guys ranking in the top 10 are tagged with black dots. I used standard scoring and cumulative stats. That kind of approach favors quarterbacks who start the bulk of the season and quarterbacks who contribute as runners. Cam Newton in 2020, for example, finished as the 17th-best quarterback despite throwing only 8 TDs all year (he ran for 592 yards and 13 TDs).
TRANSPLANTED QUARTERBACKS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | Pts | Rk |
2002 | • Drew Bledsoe, Buff. | 16 | 4,359 | 24 | 15 | 67 | 2 | 332.7 | 5 |
2003 | Jake Delhomme, Car. | 15 | 3,219 | 19 | 16 | 39 | 1 | 246.9 | 15 |
2003 | Jake Plummer, Den. | 11 | 2,182 | 15 | 7 | 205 | 3 | 207.6 | 20 |
2004 | Kerry Collins, Oak. | 13 | 3,495 | 21 | 20 | 36 | 0 | 262.4 | 15 |
2004 | Vinny Testaverde, Dall. | 15 | 3,532 | 17 | 20 | 38 | 1 | 256.4 | 16 |
2005 | • Drew Bledsoe, Dall. | 16 | 3,639 | 23 | 17 | 50 | 2 | 293.0 | 5 |
2005 | Gus Frerotte, Mia. | 15 | 2,996 | 18 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 227.9 | 17 |
2006 | • Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 4,418 | 26 | 11 | 32 | 0 | 332.1 | 2 |
2006 | • Jon Kitna, Det. | 16 | 4,208 | 21 | 22 | 156 | 2 | 322.0 | 3 |
2006 | Steve McNair, Balt. | 16 | 3,050 | 16 | 12 | 119 | 1 | 234.4 | 19 |
2007 | Jeff Garcia, T.B. | 13 | 2,440 | 13 | 4 | 116 | 1 | 191.6 | 19 |
2008 | Brett Favre, NYJ | 16 | 3,472 | 22 | 22 | 43 | 1 | 274.1 | 11 |
2008 | Chad Pennington, Mia. | 16 | 3,653 | 19 | 7 | 62 | 1 | 270.9 | 13 |
2009 | • Brett Favre, Min. | 16 | 4,202 | 33 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 343.6 | 7 |
2009 | • Jay Cutler, Chi. | 16 | 3,666 | 27 | 26 | 173 | 1 | 318.6 | 10 |
2009 | Kyle Orton, Den. | 15 | 3,802 | 21 | 12 | 71 | 0 | 281.2 | 16 |
2011 | Matt Hasselbeck, Ten. | 16 | 3,571 | 18 | 14 | 52 | 0 | 255.8 | 18 |
2012 | • Peyton Manning, Den. | 16 | 4,659 | 37 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 383.6 | 6 |
2013 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 16 | 4,274 | 24 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 310.0 | 15 |
2013 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 15 | 3,313 | 23 | 7 | 431 | 1 | 307.4 | 16 |
2015 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ | 16 | 3,905 | 31 | 15 | 270 | 2 | 358.3 | 12 |
2015 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 14 | 3,035 | 20 | 6 | 568 | 4 | 316.0 | 18 |
2017 | Case Keenum, Min. | 14 | 3,547 | 22 | 7 | 160 | 1 | 289.4 | 15 |
2018 | • Kirk Cousins, Min. | 16 | 4,298 | 30 | 10 | 123 | 1 | 360.1 | 8 |
2018 | Case Keenum, Den. | 16 | 3,890 | 18 | 15 | 93 | 2 | 287.8 | 19 |
2019 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mia. | 13 | 3,529 | 20 | 13 | 243 | 4 | 306.8 | 18 |
2020 | • Tom Brady, T.B. | 16 | 4,633 | 40 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 410.3 | 7 |
2020 | Cam Newton, N.E. | 15 | 2,657 | 8 | 10 | 592 | 13 | 309.6 | 17 |
2020 | Teddy Bridgewater, Car. | 15 | 3,733 | 15 | 11 | 279 | 5 | 306.6 | 19 |
2020 | Philip Rivers, Ind. | 16 | 4,169 | 24 | 11 | -8 | 0 | 305.7 | 20 |
2021 | • Matthew Stafford, LAR | 17 | 4,886 | 41 | 17 | 43 | 0 | 416.6 | 5 |
2021 | Carson Wentz, Ind. | 17 | 3,563 | 27 | 7 | 215 | 1 | 317.7 | 14 |
2022 | Russell Wilson, Den. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Deshaun Watson, Cle. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Jacoby Brissett, Cle. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Matt Ryan, Ind. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Baker Mayfield, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Carson Wentz, Was. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Drew Lock, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Mitchell Trubisky, Pitt. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Marcus Mariota, Atl. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan