The cast around Kyle Pitts worries me. The Falcons look like they might be the worst team in the league, and that could make it tough for him to finish with good numbers. How, for example, can Pitts realistically make a run at 8-9 TDs if the entire team averages only about a touchdown pass per game?
Considering how early Pitts will go in fantasy drafts, he needs to finish with (at worst, I think) top-5 numbers among tight ends to justify where he’ll be taken.
The Falcons are starting with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. They might eventually shift to rookie Desmond Ridder. It’s hard to envision either reliably putting up good passing numbers.
It got me wondering whether any other tight ends in the past have accomplished with seems to be stacked up against Pitts – that is, putting up big stats while the team around him simultaneously stinks.
Below see the list of the last 100 tight ends to finish with top-5 numbers (that is, you’re seeing the best five tight ends from each of the last 20 years). And for each player, I’ve also listed his team’s win-loss record.
Five of these 100 tight ends, it turns out, played for teams that won only 2-3 games. I’ve got those guys in bold. Another eight played for teams that went 4-12 (and those players are tagged with black dots). That’s a combined 13 in 20 years from teams that finished with fewer than 5 wins.
| TOP-5 TIGHT ENDS (last 20 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk | W-L |
| 2011 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 90 | 1,327 | 18 | 330.9 | 1 | 13-3 |
| 2020 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 105 | 1,416 | 11 | 314.8 | 1 | 14-2 |
| 2013 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 86 | 1,215 | 16 | 303.5 | 1 | 11-5 |
| 2021 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 107 | 1,361 | 9 | 301.1 | 1 | 8-9 |
| 2018 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 103 | 1,336 | 10 | 296.6 | 1 | 12-4 |
| 2011 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 99 | 1,310 | 11 | 296.0 | 2 | 13-3 |
| 2020 | Darren Waller, L.V. | 107 | 1,196 | 9 | 282.6 | 2 | 8-8 |
| 2018 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 116 | 1,163 | 8 | 280.3 | 2 | 9-7 |
| 2009 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 100 | 1,106 | 10 | 271.7 | 1 | 14-2 |
| 2004 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 102 | 1,258 | 7 | 270.3 | 1 | 7-9 |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 82 | 1,124 | 12 | 266.4 | 1 | 12-4 |
| 2021 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 92 | 1,125 | 10 | 264.8 | 2 | 12-5 |
| 2008 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 96 | 1,058 | 10 | 261.8 | 1 | 2-14 |
| 2005 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 89 | 1,101 | 10 | 259.1 | 1 | 9-7 |
| 2018 | • George Kittle, S.F. | 88 | 1,377 | 5 | 258.7 | 3 | 4-12 |
| 2019 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 97 | 1,229 | 6 | 256.3 | 1 | 12-4 |
| 2015 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 72 | 1,176 | 11 | 255.6 | 1 | 12-4 |
| 2004 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 81 | 964 | 13 | 255.4 | 2 | 12-4 |
| 2009 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 78 | 965 | 13 | 252.5 | 2 | 8-8 |
| 2007 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 96 | 1,145 | 7 | 252.5 | 1 | 13-3 |
| 2010 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 94 | 1,002 | 9 | 250.2 | 1 | 6-10 |
| 2015 | Jordan Reed, Was. | 87 | 952 | 11 | 248.2 | 2 | 9-7 |
| 2007 | • Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 99 | 1,172 | 5 | 246.2 | 2 | 4-12 |
| 2015 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | 94 | 1,088 | 6 | 244.4 | 3 | 3-13 |
| 2009 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 79 | 1,157 | 8 | 242.7 | 3 | 13-3 |
| 2015 | Gary Barnidge, Cle. | 79 | 1,043 | 9 | 237.3 | 4 | 3-13 |
| 2012 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 85 | 982 | 9 | 237.2 | 1 | 7-9 |
| 2017 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 83 | 1,038 | 8 | 235.5 | 1 | 10-6 |
| 2012 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 93 | 930 | 8 | 234.0 | 2 | 13-3 |
| 2014 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 85 | 889 | 10 | 233.9 | 2 | 7-9 |
| 2012 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 110 | 1,039 | 3 | 231.9 | 3 | 8-8 |
| 2015 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 77 | 1,104 | 7 | 229.4 | 5 | 15-1 |
| 2007 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 75 | 984 | 9 | 227.4 | 3 | 11-5 |
| 2017 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 69 | 1,084 | 8 | 227.4 | 2 | 13-3 |
| 2007 | Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 82 | 1,106 | 5 | 224.6 | 4 | 10-6 |
| 2018 | Eric Ebron, Ind. | 66 | 750 | 14 | 224.2 | 4 | 10-6 |
| 2014 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 69 | 821 | 12 | 223.1 | 3 | 9-7 |
| 2004 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 87 | 980 | 6 | 223.0 | 3 | 6-10 |
| 2019 | Darren Waller, Oak. | 90 | 1,145 | 3 | 223.0 | 2 | 7-9 |
| 2016 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 85 | 1,125 | 4 | 223.0 | 1 | 12-4 |
| 2003 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 71 | 916 | 10 | 222.6 | 1 | 13-3 |
| 2019 | George Kittle, S.F. | 85 | 1,053 | 5 | 222.5 | 3 | 13-3 |
| 2014 | Martellus Bennett, Chi. | 90 | 916 | 6 | 221.6 | 4 | 5-11 |
| 2009 | Brent Celek, Phil. | 76 | 971 | 8 | 221.1 | 4 | 11-5 |
| 2014 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 84 | 1,008 | 6 | 220.8 | 5 | 7-8-1 |
| 2013 | • Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 83 | 859 | 8 | 218.9 | 2 | 4-12 |
| 2019 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 88 | 916 | 6 | 217.6 | 4 | 9-7 |
| 2006 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 71 | 924 | 9 | 217.4 | 1 | 14-2 |
| 2011 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 79 | 910 | 7 | 216.5 | 3 | 13-3 |
| 2013 | Julius Thomas, Den. | 65 | 788 | 12 | 215.8 | 3 | 13-3 |
| 2013 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 52 | 850 | 13 | 215.0 | 4 | 12-4 |
| 2013 | • Jordan Cameron, Cle. | 80 | 917 | 7 | 213.7 | 5 | 4-12 |
| 2011 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 80 | 875 | 7 | 209.5 | 4 | 10-6 |
| 2019 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 64 | 852 | 10 | 209.2 | 5 | 14-2 |
| 2016 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 83 | 840 | 7 | 209.0 | 2 | 8-8 |
| 2009 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 94 | 1,030 | 2 | 209.0 | 5 | 11-5 |
| 2021 | Dalton Schultz, Dall. | 78 | 808 | 8 | 208.8 | 3 | 12-5 |
| 2016 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 80 | 1,073 | 3 | 207.3 | 3 | 6-10 |
| 2017 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 74 | 824 | 8 | 204.4 | 3 | 13-3 |
| 2011 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 79 | 942 | 5 | 203.2 | 5 | 8-8 |
| 2012 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 71 | 816 | 8 | 202.6 | 4 | 8-8 |
| 2005 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 75 | 855 | 7 | 202.5 | 2 | 6-10 |
| 2008 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 81 | 952 | 4 | 202.3 | 2 | 9-7 |
| 2021 | George Kittle, S.F. | 71 | 910 | 6 | 200.0 | 4 | 10-7 |
| 2012 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 55 | 790 | 11 | 200.0 | 5 | 12-4 |
| 2005 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 65 | 891 | 7 | 198.1 | 3 | 11-5 |
| 2008 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 77 | 848 | 6 | 197.8 | 3 | 12-4 |
| 2006 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 73 | 900 | 5 | 195.0 | 2 | 9-7 |
| 2007 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 66 | 786 | 8 | 194.6 | 5 | 9-7 |
| 2006 | • Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 89 | 875 | 3 | 194.5 | 3 | 4-12 |
| 2018 | • Jared Cook, Oak. | 68 | 896 | 6 | 193.6 | 5 | 4-12 |
| 2002 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 68 | 836 | 6 | 193.4 | 1 | 7-9 |
| 2016 | Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 65 | 923 | 6 | 193.3 | 4 | 10-5-1 |
| 2010 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 56 | 914 | 7 | 191.4 | 2 | 6-10 |
| 2005 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 71 | 774 | 7 | 190.4 | 4 | 10-6 |
| 2010 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 50 | 782 | 10 | 188.2 | 3 | 9-7 |
| 2016 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | 65 | 800 | 7 | 188.1 | 5 | 9-7 |
| 2010 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 58 | 700 | 10 | 188.0 | 4 | 8-8 |
| 2003 | Shannon Sharpe, Den. | 62 | 770 | 8 | 187.0 | 2 | 10-6 |
| 2006 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 73 | 765 | 6 | 185.5 | 4 | 13-3 |
| 2005 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 65 | 877 | 5 | 184.7 | 5 | 8-8 |
| 2002 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 63 | 773 | 7 | 182.3 | 2 | 8-8 |
| 2006 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 56 | 780 | 8 | 182.0 | 5 | 7-9 |
| 2010 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 77 | 849 | 3 | 181.9 | 5 | 6-10 |
| 2021 | Zach Ertz, 2TM | 74 | 763 | 5 | 180.7 | 5 | 8-10 |
| 2017 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | 74 | 807 | 4 | 178.5 | 4 | 9-7 |
| 2008 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 60 | 704 | 8 | 178.4 | 4 | 8-8 |
| 2004 | • Randy McMichael, Mia. | 73 | 791 | 4 | 178.1 | 4 | 4-12 |
| 2020 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 67 | 723 | 6 | 177.3 | 3 | 5-11 |
| 2020 | Logan Thomas, Was. | 72 | 670 | 6 | 176.9 | 4 | 7-9 |
| 2020 | Robert Tonyan, G.B. | 52 | 586 | 11 | 176.6 | 5 | 13-3 |
| 2004 | Eric Johnson, S.F. | 82 | 825 | 2 | 176.5 | 5 | 2-14 |
| 2002 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 74 | 894 | 2 | 175.4 | 3 | 10-6 |
| 2008 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 83 | 849 | 1 | 173.9 | 5 | 8-8 |
| 2017 | Evan Engram, NYG | 64 | 722 | 6 | 173.6 | 5 | 3-13 |
| 2003 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 57 | 693 | 3 | 154.4 | 3 | 10-6 |
| 2002 | Shannon Sharpe, Den. | 61 | 686 | 3 | 147.6 | 4 | 9-7 |
| 2002 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 54 | 442 | 7 | 145.8 | 5 | 12-4 |
| 2003 | Randy McMichael, Mia. | 49 | 598 | 3 | 126.8 | 4 | 10-6 |
| 2003 | • Freddie Jones, Ariz. | 55 | 517 | 3 | 124.7 | 5 | 4-12 |
These numbers aren’t as bad as I was expecting. There have been only 36 teams in the last 20 years that have finished with 2-3 wins, and five of those teams had a top-5 tight ends. And 8 of the 52 teams that have finished with 4 wins have had one of these standout tight ends.
These numbers aren’t awful. The hit rates, in fact, are higher than for teams that finished with 11, 7 or 5 wins. For teams finishing 10-6 or 11-5, just 15 of those 118 teams finished with a top-5 tight end.
In general, this mini-study suggests that it’s best to not to worry too much about the Falcons finishing with a lesser record (which isn’t even a given anyway – they potentially will be better than I’m expecting).
At the same time, these numbers underscore if a team wins 13-plus games, the chances go up of that success being fueled in part by a productive tight end. The hit rate gets up over 30 percent for those kind of teams. (The numbers for this experiment, by the way, get a little slippery, with the league switching from 16 to 17 games last year.)
—Ian Allan