Fantasy Index

header banner img
CHEAT SHEET UPDATES: ON SALE NOW
Win here.

Factoid

100-catch wide receivers

How have they fared the next season?

We've done some things recently about how top running backs have fared in the next season. I thought I would take a look at something similar with wide receivers. Specifically, when a wide receiver catches 100 balls, what are the odds he'll put up great numbers again the following season?

I pulled the numbers for all wide receivers that caught at least 100 passes since 2000. There were 88 such wideouts; about four per season. Last year there were nine, including Jaylen Waddle (pictured), and that's probably going to be more typical going forward -- 17-game season now.

Anyway, of those previous 88 wideouts, 31 came back and caught 100 passes again the following season. That's 35 percent, which seems like pretty good odds. Looked at in fantasy terms, just over half (45 of 88) finished in the top 12 (PPR) the following season, what you might call a WR1 in fantasy land. So a 50 percent chance that last year's 100-catch wideouts will go on to be top-12 wideouts in 2022.

Sixty-seven of the 88 (76 percent) ranked in the top 25 the next season. Still pretty good, and worthy of an early pick in most leagues.

Predictably, the worst performers a year later missed extensive time. Of the 21 that finished outside the top 25, 11 played in 10 or fewer games. If your 100-catch wideout can stay on the field, pretty strong chance he'll be a top-25 (or better) wide receiver the next season.

100-CATCH WIDE RECEIVERS, ONE YEAR LATER (2000-2021)
YearPlayerPrevious YearGRecYdsTDPPRRk
2000Marvin Harrison, Ind.102-1413-1416109152415351.71
2001Marvin Harrison, Ind.109-1524-1516143172211384.21
2002Randy Moss, Min.106-1347-716111163217378.01
2008Andre Johnson, Hou.115-1575-81610115699314.91
2013Antonio Brown, Pitt.110-1499-916129169814391.11
2014Antonio Brown, Pitt.129-1698-1416136183411392.21
2015Antonio Brown, Pitt.136-1834-1115106128412307.31
2018Michael Thomas, N.O.125-1405-91614917259374.61
2007Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.100-1409-101696143112311.12
2014Julio Jones, Atl.104-1593-61613618719377.12
2016Antonio Brown, Pitt.106-1284-121410115339310.32
2020Davante Adams, G.B.115-1374-1816123155311344.32
2000Rod Smith, Den.100-1602-915113134311318.03
2009Reggie Wayne, Ind.100-1264-101611113556282.53
2018Julio Jones, Atl.113-1677-8159913946274.13
2003Torry Holt, St.L.117-1696-121694137210291.24
2005Torry Holt, St.L.102-1331-91693118810271.84
2008Wes Welker, N.E.111-1165-31412313484285.44
2018DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.115-1572-111510411657270.64
2019DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz.104-1165-71611514076291.84
2002Marvin Harrison, Ind.143-1722-111594127210281.55
2007Brandon Marshall, Den.102-1325-71510412656266.15
2010Roddy White, Atl.115-1389-101610012968277.65
2012Brandon Marshall, Chi.118-1508-1116100129512305.55
2016Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.107-1023-61610911566263.75
2017Antonio Brown, Pitt.101-1533-915104129715323.75
2002Hines Ward, Pitt.112-1329-121695116310277.46
2012Calvin Johnson, Det.122-1964-51484149212305.26
2015Julio Jones, Atl.136-1871-9148314096259.96
2017Michael Thomas, N.O.104-1245-51612514059319.56
2005Steve Smith Sr., Car.103-1563-13148311669259.77
2008Brandon Marshall, Den.104-1265-615101112010276.97
2009Andre Johnson, Hou.101-1569-9138612168256.67
2011Wes Welker, N.E.122-1569-91611813546291.47
2020Stefon Diggs, Buff.127-1535-817103122510285.57
2001Marty Booker, Chi.100-1071-8169711896258.19
2007Wes Welker, N.E.112-1175-81611111653250.110
2011Roddy White, Atl.100-1296-8169213517269.110
2012Andre Johnson, Hou.112-1598-41610914075279.710
2014Demaryius Thomas, Den.111-1619-111610513046271.410
2002Terrell Owens, S.F.100-1300-14158011029244.011
2015Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.109-1215-91610710236245.811
2020Keenan Allen, LAC100-992-81610611386257.811
2017Keenan Allen, LAC102-1393-7169711966262.112
2019Keenan Allen, LAC104-1199-6141009928249.112
2007Reggie Wayne, Ind.104-1510-10168211456234.513
2015Jarvis Landry, Mia.110-1157-6169411364235.313
2005Anquan Boldin, Ariz.102-1402-7168312034230.115
2013Julian Edelman, N.E.105-1056-614929725228.615
2015Demaryius Thomas, Den.105-1304-6169010835230.316
2020Tyler Lockett, Sea.100-1054-10167311758241.416
2001Jimmy Smith, Jac.112-1373-8168010277226.917
2001Rod Smith, Den.113-1343-11168910275222.618
2009Wes Welker, N.E.123-1348-415868487212.818
2014Emmanuel Sanders, Den.101-1404-9157611356228.418
2017Jarvis Landry, Cle.112-987-916819765219.818
2001Keyshawn Johnson, T.B.106-1266-1167610885218.820
2007Derrick Mason, Balt.103-1087-5168010375216.020
2007T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin.112-1143-1215929044207.321
2012Wes Welker, Den.118-1354-6137377810210.821
2018Stefon Diggs, Min.102-1021-9156311306218.121
2009Brandon Marshall, Mia.101-1120-10148610143205.722
2001Troy Brown, N.E.101-1199-714978903207.423
2018Davante Adams, G.B.111-1386-1312839975214.723
2005Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.103-1409-1013699466199.624
2003Randy Moss, Min.111-1632-17134976713205.625
2010Reggie Wayne, Ind.111-1355-616759604195.025
2017Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.109-1156-616697346186.026
2006Andre Johnson, Hou.103-1147-59608518193.127
2013Andre Johnson, Hou.109-1407-515859363196.628
2015DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.111-1521-1116789544197.429
2013Brandon Marshall, Chi.100-1295-1213617218181.134
2002Eric Moulds, Buff.100-1292-1013647801148.041
2020DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz.115-1407-610425728147.246
2013Pierre Garcon, Was.113-1346-516687523161.247
2015Brandon Marshall, NYJ109-1502-1415597883155.849
2003Anquan Boldin, Ariz.101-1377-810566231124.652
2000Muhsin Muhammad, Car.102-1183-611505851114.555
2009Steve Smith (USC), NYG107-1220-79485293118.961
2018JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.111-1426-712425523115.263
2018Adam Thielen, Min.113-1373-910304187114.465
2012Reggie Wayne, Ind.106-1355-57385032102.867
2020Allen Robinson, Chi.102-1250-61238410187.081
2016Odell Beckham, NYG101-1367-10425302374.084
2019Michael Thomas, N.O.149-1725-9740438083.995
2019Julian Edelman, N.E.100-1117-6621315056.6112
2000Ed McCaffrey, Den.101-1317-91694121.4123
2018Antonio Brown, N.E.104-1297-151456116.1154
2021Cooper Kupp, LAR145-1947-16??????
2021Davante Adams, G.B.123-1553-26??????
2021Tyreek Hill, K.C.111-1239-66??????
2021Justin Jefferson, Min.108-1616-46??????
2021Diontae Johnson, Pitt.107-1161-86??????
2021Keenan Allen, LAC106-1138-116??????
2021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.104-1015-126??????
2021Hunter Renfrow, L.V.103-1038-106??????
2021Stefon Diggs, Buff.103-1225-76??????

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index