We've done some things recently about how top running backs have fared in the next season. I thought I would take a look at something similar with wide receivers. Specifically, when a wide receiver catches 100 balls, what are the odds he'll put up great numbers again the following season?
I pulled the numbers for all wide receivers that caught at least 100 passes since 2000. There were 88 such wideouts; about four per season. Last year there were nine, including Jaylen Waddle (pictured), and that's probably going to be more typical going forward -- 17-game season now.
Anyway, of those previous 88 wideouts, 31 came back and caught 100 passes again the following season. That's 35 percent, which seems like pretty good odds. Looked at in fantasy terms, just over half (45 of 88) finished in the top 12 (PPR) the following season, what you might call a WR1 in fantasy land. So a 50 percent chance that last year's 100-catch wideouts will go on to be top-12 wideouts in 2022.
Sixty-seven of the 88 (76 percent) ranked in the top 25 the next season. Still pretty good, and worthy of an early pick in most leagues.
Predictably, the worst performers a year later missed extensive time. Of the 21 that finished outside the top 25, 11 played in 10 or fewer games. If your 100-catch wideout can stay on the field, pretty strong chance he'll be a top-25 (or better) wide receiver the next season.
100-CATCH WIDE RECEIVERS, ONE YEAR LATER (2000-2021) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Previous Year | G | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
2000 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 102-1413-14 | 16 | 109 | 1524 | 15 | 351.7 | 1 |
2001 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 109-1524-15 | 16 | 143 | 1722 | 11 | 384.2 | 1 |
2002 | Randy Moss, Min. | 106-1347-7 | 16 | 111 | 1632 | 17 | 378.0 | 1 |
2008 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 115-1575-8 | 16 | 101 | 1569 | 9 | 314.9 | 1 |
2013 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 110-1499-9 | 16 | 129 | 1698 | 14 | 391.1 | 1 |
2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 129-1698-14 | 16 | 136 | 1834 | 11 | 392.2 | 1 |
2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 136-1834-11 | 15 | 106 | 1284 | 12 | 307.3 | 1 |
2018 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 125-1405-9 | 16 | 149 | 1725 | 9 | 374.6 | 1 |
2007 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 100-1409-10 | 16 | 96 | 1431 | 12 | 311.1 | 2 |
2014 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 104-1593-6 | 16 | 136 | 1871 | 9 | 377.1 | 2 |
2016 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 106-1284-12 | 14 | 101 | 1533 | 9 | 310.3 | 2 |
2020 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 115-1374-18 | 16 | 123 | 1553 | 11 | 344.3 | 2 |
2000 | Rod Smith, Den. | 100-1602-9 | 15 | 113 | 1343 | 11 | 318.0 | 3 |
2009 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 100-1264-10 | 16 | 111 | 1355 | 6 | 282.5 | 3 |
2018 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 113-1677-8 | 15 | 99 | 1394 | 6 | 274.1 | 3 |
2003 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 117-1696-12 | 16 | 94 | 1372 | 10 | 291.2 | 4 |
2005 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 102-1331-9 | 16 | 93 | 1188 | 10 | 271.8 | 4 |
2008 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 111-1165-3 | 14 | 123 | 1348 | 4 | 285.4 | 4 |
2018 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 115-1572-11 | 15 | 104 | 1165 | 7 | 270.6 | 4 |
2019 | DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz. | 104-1165-7 | 16 | 115 | 1407 | 6 | 291.8 | 4 |
2002 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 143-1722-11 | 15 | 94 | 1272 | 10 | 281.5 | 5 |
2007 | Brandon Marshall, Den. | 102-1325-7 | 15 | 104 | 1265 | 6 | 266.1 | 5 |
2010 | Roddy White, Atl. | 115-1389-10 | 16 | 100 | 1296 | 8 | 277.6 | 5 |
2012 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 118-1508-11 | 16 | 100 | 1295 | 12 | 305.5 | 5 |
2016 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 107-1023-6 | 16 | 109 | 1156 | 6 | 263.7 | 5 |
2017 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 101-1533-9 | 15 | 104 | 1297 | 15 | 323.7 | 5 |
2002 | Hines Ward, Pitt. | 112-1329-12 | 16 | 95 | 1163 | 10 | 277.4 | 6 |
2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 122-1964-5 | 14 | 84 | 1492 | 12 | 305.2 | 6 |
2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 136-1871-9 | 14 | 83 | 1409 | 6 | 259.9 | 6 |
2017 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 104-1245-5 | 16 | 125 | 1405 | 9 | 319.5 | 6 |
2005 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 103-1563-13 | 14 | 83 | 1166 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
2008 | Brandon Marshall, Den. | 104-1265-6 | 15 | 101 | 1120 | 10 | 276.9 | 7 |
2009 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 101-1569-9 | 13 | 86 | 1216 | 8 | 256.6 | 7 |
2011 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 122-1569-9 | 16 | 118 | 1354 | 6 | 291.4 | 7 |
2020 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 127-1535-8 | 17 | 103 | 1225 | 10 | 285.5 | 7 |
2001 | Marty Booker, Chi. | 100-1071-8 | 16 | 97 | 1189 | 6 | 258.1 | 9 |
2007 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 112-1175-8 | 16 | 111 | 1165 | 3 | 250.1 | 10 |
2011 | Roddy White, Atl. | 100-1296-8 | 16 | 92 | 1351 | 7 | 269.1 | 10 |
2012 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 112-1598-4 | 16 | 109 | 1407 | 5 | 279.7 | 10 |
2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 111-1619-11 | 16 | 105 | 1304 | 6 | 271.4 | 10 |
2002 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 100-1300-14 | 15 | 80 | 1102 | 9 | 244.0 | 11 |
2015 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 109-1215-9 | 16 | 107 | 1023 | 6 | 245.8 | 11 |
2020 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 100-992-8 | 16 | 106 | 1138 | 6 | 257.8 | 11 |
2017 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 102-1393-7 | 16 | 97 | 1196 | 6 | 262.1 | 12 |
2019 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 104-1199-6 | 14 | 100 | 992 | 8 | 249.1 | 12 |
2007 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 104-1510-10 | 16 | 82 | 1145 | 6 | 234.5 | 13 |
2015 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 110-1157-6 | 16 | 94 | 1136 | 4 | 235.3 | 13 |
2005 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 102-1402-7 | 16 | 83 | 1203 | 4 | 230.1 | 15 |
2013 | Julian Edelman, N.E. | 105-1056-6 | 14 | 92 | 972 | 5 | 228.6 | 15 |
2015 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 105-1304-6 | 16 | 90 | 1083 | 5 | 230.3 | 16 |
2020 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 100-1054-10 | 16 | 73 | 1175 | 8 | 241.4 | 16 |
2001 | Jimmy Smith, Jac. | 112-1373-8 | 16 | 80 | 1027 | 7 | 226.9 | 17 |
2001 | Rod Smith, Den. | 113-1343-11 | 16 | 89 | 1027 | 5 | 222.6 | 18 |
2009 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 123-1348-4 | 15 | 86 | 848 | 7 | 212.8 | 18 |
2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 101-1404-9 | 15 | 76 | 1135 | 6 | 228.4 | 18 |
2017 | Jarvis Landry, Cle. | 112-987-9 | 16 | 81 | 976 | 5 | 219.8 | 18 |
2001 | Keyshawn Johnson, T.B. | 106-1266-1 | 16 | 76 | 1088 | 5 | 218.8 | 20 |
2007 | Derrick Mason, Balt. | 103-1087-5 | 16 | 80 | 1037 | 5 | 216.0 | 20 |
2007 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin. | 112-1143-12 | 15 | 92 | 904 | 4 | 207.3 | 21 |
2012 | Wes Welker, Den. | 118-1354-6 | 13 | 73 | 778 | 10 | 210.8 | 21 |
2018 | Stefon Diggs, Min. | 102-1021-9 | 15 | 63 | 1130 | 6 | 218.1 | 21 |
2009 | Brandon Marshall, Mia. | 101-1120-10 | 14 | 86 | 1014 | 3 | 205.7 | 22 |
2001 | Troy Brown, N.E. | 101-1199-7 | 14 | 97 | 890 | 3 | 207.4 | 23 |
2018 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 111-1386-13 | 12 | 83 | 997 | 5 | 214.7 | 23 |
2005 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 103-1409-10 | 13 | 69 | 946 | 6 | 199.6 | 24 |
2003 | Randy Moss, Min. | 111-1632-17 | 13 | 49 | 767 | 13 | 205.6 | 25 |
2010 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 111-1355-6 | 16 | 75 | 960 | 4 | 195.0 | 25 |
2017 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 109-1156-6 | 16 | 69 | 734 | 6 | 186.0 | 26 |
2006 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 103-1147-5 | 9 | 60 | 851 | 8 | 193.1 | 27 |
2013 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 109-1407-5 | 15 | 85 | 936 | 3 | 196.6 | 28 |
2015 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 111-1521-11 | 16 | 78 | 954 | 4 | 197.4 | 29 |
2013 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 100-1295-12 | 13 | 61 | 721 | 8 | 181.1 | 34 |
2002 | Eric Moulds, Buff. | 100-1292-10 | 13 | 64 | 780 | 1 | 148.0 | 41 |
2020 | DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz. | 115-1407-6 | 10 | 42 | 572 | 8 | 147.2 | 46 |
2013 | Pierre Garcon, Was. | 113-1346-5 | 16 | 68 | 752 | 3 | 161.2 | 47 |
2015 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 109-1502-14 | 15 | 59 | 788 | 3 | 155.8 | 49 |
2003 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 101-1377-8 | 10 | 56 | 623 | 1 | 124.6 | 52 |
2000 | Muhsin Muhammad, Car. | 102-1183-6 | 11 | 50 | 585 | 1 | 114.5 | 55 |
2009 | Steve Smith (USC), NYG | 107-1220-7 | 9 | 48 | 529 | 3 | 118.9 | 61 |
2018 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 111-1426-7 | 12 | 42 | 552 | 3 | 115.2 | 63 |
2018 | Adam Thielen, Min. | 113-1373-9 | 10 | 30 | 418 | 7 | 114.4 | 65 |
2012 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 106-1355-5 | 7 | 38 | 503 | 2 | 102.8 | 67 |
2020 | Allen Robinson, Chi. | 102-1250-6 | 12 | 38 | 410 | 1 | 87.0 | 81 |
2016 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 101-1367-10 | 4 | 25 | 302 | 3 | 74.0 | 84 |
2019 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 149-1725-9 | 7 | 40 | 438 | 0 | 83.9 | 95 |
2019 | Julian Edelman, N.E. | 100-1117-6 | 6 | 21 | 315 | 0 | 56.6 | 112 |
2000 | Ed McCaffrey, Den. | 101-1317-9 | 1 | 6 | 94 | 1 | 21.4 | 123 |
2018 | Antonio Brown, N.E. | 104-1297-15 | 1 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 16.1 | 154 |
2021 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 145-1947-16 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 123-1553-26 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 111-1239-66 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 108-1616-46 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 107-1161-86 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 106-1138-116 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104-1015-126 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 103-1038-106 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 103-1225-76 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
--Andy Richardson