Camps are opening, and it will be interesting to get eyes on some of these rookie receivers. There are no can’t-miss type prospects, but with the volume that were selected (including six with top-20 picks) there should be at least some value in there somewhere.
One of the key choices at wide receiver the last two years has been a rookie – JaMarr Chase last year, and Justin Jefferson in 2020. It would be a big ask for anyone to come anywhere close to those guys. None of the incoming rookies is entering the league with the same kind of anticipation as guys like A.J. Green and Julio Jones.
But they’ve all got their selling points, with some chance of instant success.
In the table below, I’m listing a subset of the first-round wide receivers of the last 20 years – how they fared in their first season. I’m not listing top-10 picks (with most those guys being a little more anticipated than this recent group). And I’m not listing the last 10 picks in the first round (with those groups being more a cut below). Instead, in the chart below, you’re seeing 26 who were picked between 11th and 22nd.
Of these 26 receivers, only seven finished with top-40 numbers (PPR scoring) in their first year. Jeremy Maclin (for the Eagles) was the 35th-best receiver in 2009, and the other six all ranked inside the top 30.
Only three made the top 20 – Jefferson (6th), Odell Beckham (8th) and Michael Clayton (14th).
With this most-recent group, then, in general you should be selecting them with hope they’ll beat the odds and finish with top 30 numbers. It’s kind of coin flip whether one of this group will be able to do that.
Jameson Williams can be scratched immediately. Working his way back from knee surgery, he’s unlikely to play before November.
Treylon Burks (pictured) was tossed into the best situation, with the Titans having traded away A.J. Brown. But Burks had an underwhelming offseason, through some combination of conditioning and an asthma problem.
Jahan Dotson is a small guy (178 pounds at the combine) and is going to a team that already has a pair of good receivers (Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel).
Chris Olave is joining a roster that has a pair of experienced possession receivers (Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry), but Olave has more big-play ability than those guys.
Drake London and Garrett Wilson also were chosen in the first round, but both were chosen in the top 10 – outside the area of picks were looking at here (though I consider them to be similar in potential to these other four guys).
How these receivers perform in the preseason will play a role in their ordering. For now, I would probably pick Burks first, hoping he can cash in on his opportunity. Olave and Dotson I see as late-round picks, on the off chance they pick things up quickly. Jameson Williams I am comfortable leaving undrafted (I don’t think we’ll start seeing dividends out of him until 2023).
The rookie numbers are below. (And as a reminder, these are the first-round picks who weren’t chosen in the top 10 or the bottom 10 of that round.)
| RECEIVERS, MIDDLE OF FIRST ROUND (last 20 yrs) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 39 | 420 | 0 | 82.6 | 89 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 74 | 935 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 |
| 2020 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 52 | 856 | 3 | 157.6 | 45 |
| 2020 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 26 | 452 | 2 | 88.1 | 89 |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 31 | 396 | 2 | 87.2 | 91 |
| 2016 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47 | 635 | 3 | 128.2 | 61 |
| 2016 | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 33 | 413 | 3 | 93.3 | 83 |
| 2016 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 2 | 66 | 0 | 8.6 | 170 |
| 2015 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 26 | 494 | 3 | 93.4 | 78 |
| 2015 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23 | 283 | 1 | 57.3 | 101 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 91 | 1305 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 53 | 550 | 4 | 139.3 | 56 |
| 2012 | Kendall Wright, Ten. | 64 | 626 | 4 | 151.0 | 45 |
| 2012 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 45 | 562 | 2 | 113.2 | 65 |
| 2010 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 283 | 2 | 62.4 | 95 |
| 2009 | Percy Harvin, Min. | 60 | 790 | 8 | 200.5 | 23 |
| 2009 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 56 | 773 | 4 | 156.6 | 35 |
| 2005 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 36 | 432 | 5 | 114.9 | 53 |
| 2005 | Mark Clayton, Balt. | 44 | 471 | 3 | 112.4 | 55 |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 80 | 1193 | 7 | 244.3 | 14 |
| 2004 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 48 | 843 | 9 | 194.8 | 29 |
| 2003 | Bryant Johnson, Ariz. | 35 | 438 | 1 | 84.8 | 82 |
| 2002 | Donte Stallworth, N.O. | 42 | 594 | 8 | 149.6 | 50 |
| 2002 | Ashley Lelie, Den. | 35 | 525 | 2 | 103.5 | 69 |
| 2002 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 23 | 319 | 1 | 62.0 | 95 |
| 2022 | • Chris Olave, N.O. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | • Jameson Williams, Det. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | • Jahan Dotson, Was. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | • Treylon Burks, Ten. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan