Factoid

July 24, 2022

Patriot WRs

Weighing production versus targets

I got some blowback yesterday to the idea that Kendrick Bourne will be New England’s best wide receiver. A couple of readers like Jakobi Meyers more, pointing out that he saw more targets last year. That gives him a safer floor, they think.

DeVante Parker (via trade) and Tyquan Thornton are also now on this team, and they are more like Bourne than Meyers, who works from the slot.

In the pro-Bourne column, he was a lot more effective last year, catching 79 percent of his passes (compared to only 66 for Meyers), while also averaging over 4 more yards per catch. In their final 11 meaningful games (leaving out the windstorm game at Buffalo) Bourne averaged 2 more PPR points per week.

Bourne also handles the ball on end-arounds; he carried 11 times for 111 yards in those final 11 games.

The question I wanted to probe was the idea of targets as a scouting metric. Specifically, when a player sees more targets, does that make him a better prospect?

I ran some numbers. I see 38 pairs of wide receivers in this century where a player was his team’s most productive receiver despite finishing with fewer targets than the No. 2 guy, with both players coming back to again play for that same team.

In 22 of the 38 situations, the guy with fewer targets came back and again finished with better numbers than the player who had out-targeted him. I’ve got those guys flagged with black dots.

LEADING RECEIVERS WITH FEWER TARGETS (the next yr)
Year	Player	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk
2021	• Tee Higgins, Cin.	110	74	1091	6	221.1	23
2021	• Tim Patrick, Den.	85	53	734	5	156.4	42
2021	• Sterling Shepard, NYG	53	36	366	1	77.7	98
2021	• DK Metcalf, Sea.	129	75	967	12	244.3	15
2021	JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.	28	15	129	1	34.8	133
2020	• Tyreek Hill, K.C.	135	87	1276	17	328.9	2
2020	• Darius Slayton, NYG	96	50	751	3	143.0	54
2020	Cooper Kupp, LAR	124	92	974	3	210.7	26
2019	• Alshon Jeffery, Phil.	73	43	490	5	122.2	60
2017	• A.J. Green, Cin.	143	75	1078	8	230.8	10
2017	• Adam Thielen, Min.	142	91	1276	4	243.7	9
2015	• Mike Evans, T.B.	148	74	1206	3	212.6	22
2015	Michael Floyd, Ariz.	89	52	849	6	172.9	38
2015	DeSean Jackson, Was.	49	30	528	4	106.8	68
2014	Brian Hartline, Mia.	63	39	474	2	98.4	77
2013	• Cecil Shorts, Jac.	123	66	777	3	161.7	39
2013	Santana Moss, Was.	79	42	452	2	101.7	71
2012	• Jordy Nelson, G.B.	73	49	745	7	167.5	37
2012	• Victor Cruz, NYG	143	86	1092	10	255.2	14
2012	• Mike Wallace, Pitt.	119	64	836	8	196.3	24
2012	Torrey Smith, Balt.	110	49	855	8	183.4	31
2011	• Jacoby Ford, Oak.	33	19	279	2	62.0	101
2011	Kenny Britt, Ten.	26	17	289	3	63.9	97
2010	Donald Driver, G.B.	85	51	565	4	131.5	53
2010	Josh Morgan, S.F.	80	44	698	2	127.5	58
2008	• Greg Jennings, G.B.	140	80	1292	9	265.2	7
2008	• Andre Johnson, Hou.	171	115	1575	8	322.5	1
2008	Reggie Williams, Jac.	63	37	364	3	91.4	75
2008	Santonio Holmes, Pitt.	114	55	821	5	168.0	32
2006	• Randy Moss, Oak.	96	42	553	3	115.3	59
2006	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	111	69	946	6	199.6	24
2005	• Torry Holt, St.L.	163	102	1331	9	289.3	5
2004	• Javon Walker, G.B.	144	89	1382	12	299.2	3
2003	• Steve Smith Sr., Car.	142	88	1110	8	251.2	10
2003	Bill Schroeder, Det.	80	36	397	2	87.7	78
2002	Peerless Price, Buff.	148	94	1252	9	271.9	6
2001	• Randy Moss, Min.	154	82	1233	10	270.6	8
2001	Isaac Bruce, St.L.	103	64	1106	6	212.9	23

Overall, those 38 stat leaders in their following season averaged 61 catches for 846 yards and 5.8 TDs (on 104 targets). The players who had more targets in the follow-up season averaged 96 targets, 59 catches, 761 yards and 4.8 TDs.

That’s not a gigantic difference, of course. Of those 38 target leaders, almost half (16) moved past the stat leader the following season (I’ve got them tagged in the chart below). And every situation must be weighed on its own merits. If either Parker or Thornton (or Nelson Agholor) rips things up, that could change the situation.

But for now, I am ranking Bourne a little higher than Meyers (pictured). I don’t think it makes sense for Meyers to be selected well before Bourne in drafts.

No. 2 guys listed below …

TARGET LEADERS WHO GOT OUTPERFORMED (the next yr)
Year	Player	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk
2021	Tyler Boyd, Cin.	94	67	828	5	184.3	31
2021	Jerry Jeudy, Den.	56	38	467	0	85.0	85
2020	• Robert Woods, LAR	129	90	936	8	247.1	14
2020	• Hunter Renfrow, L.V.	77	56	656	2	133.6	58
2020	Sammy Watkins, K.C.	55	37	421	2	91.4	87
2020	Golden Tate, NYG	52	35	388	2	86.7	93
2019	• Danny Amendola, Det.	97	62	678	1	140.8	49
2017	Brandon LaFell, Cin.	89	52	548	3	124.8	55
2017	Stefon Diggs, Min.	95	64	849	8	198.2	19
2015	• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	145	109	1215	9	284.5	7
2014	• Mike Wallace, Mia.	115	67	862	10	214.8	20
2013	• Pierre Garcon, Was.	181	113	1346	5	279.5	11
2013	Justin Blackmon, Jac.	48	29	415	1	76.4	93
2012	• Anquan Boldin, Balt.	112	65	921	4	183.4	30
2012	Greg Jennings, G.B.	62	36	366	4	96.6	75
2011	• Nate Washington, Ten.	121	74	1023	8	224.8	15
2011	Louis Murphy, Oak.	33	15	241	1	52.0	112
2010	• Greg Jennings, G.B.	125	76	1265	12	274.4	5
2010	• Wes Welker, N.E.	123	86	848	7	212.8	18
2008	• Dennis Northcutt, Jac.	68	44	545	2	111.4	60
2008	Donald Driver, G.B.	116	74	1012	5	205.6	22
2008	Kevin Walter, Hou.	95	60	899	8	200.2	23
2006	• Anquan Boldin, Ariz.	152	83	1203	4	230.1	15
2005	• Kevin Johnson, Det.	31	17	133	0	30.3	121
2004	• Eric Moulds, Buff.	152	88	1043	5	224.2	20
2003	Muhsin Muhammad, Car.	100	54	837	3	155.5	37
2002	• Eric Moulds, Buff.	180	100	1292	10	289.9	5
2002	• Peter Warrick, Cin.	81	53	606	6	151.8	46
2001	• Torry Holt, St.L.	133	81	1363	7	259.3	11
2001	Cris Carter, Min.	130	73	871	6	196.5	29

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