I got some blowback yesterday to the idea that Kendrick Bourne will be New England’s best wide receiver. A couple of readers like Jakobi Meyers more, pointing out that he saw more targets last year. That gives him a safer floor, they think.

DeVante Parker (via trade) and Tyquan Thornton are also now on this team, and they are more like Bourne than Meyers, who works from the slot.

In the pro-Bourne column, he was a lot more effective last year, catching 79 percent of his passes (compared to only 66 for Meyers), while also averaging over 4 more yards per catch. In their final 11 meaningful games (leaving out the windstorm game at Buffalo) Bourne averaged 2 more PPR points per week.

Bourne also handles the ball on end-arounds; he carried 11 times for 111 yards in those final 11 games.

The question I wanted to probe was the idea of targets as a scouting metric. Specifically, when a player sees more targets, does that make him a better prospect?

I ran some numbers. I see 38 pairs of wide receivers in this century where a player was his team’s most productive receiver despite finishing with fewer targets than the No. 2 guy, with both players coming back to again play for that same team.

In 22 of the 38 situations, the guy with fewer targets came back and again finished with better numbers than the player who had out-targeted him. I’ve got those guys flagged with black dots.

LEADING RECEIVERS WITH FEWER TARGETS (the next yr)
YearPlayerTgtRecYdsTDPPRRk
2021• Tee Higgins, Cin.1107410916221.123
2021• Tim Patrick, Den.85537345156.442
2021• Sterling Shepard, NYG5336366177.798
2021• DK Metcalf, Sea.1297596712244.315
2021JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.2815129134.8133
2020• Tyreek Hill, K.C.13587127617328.92
2020• Darius Slayton, NYG96507513143.054
2020Cooper Kupp, LAR124929743210.726
2019• Alshon Jeffery, Phil.73434905122.260
2017• A.J. Green, Cin.1437510788230.810
2017• Adam Thielen, Min.1429112764243.79
2015• Mike Evans, T.B.1487412063212.622
2015Michael Floyd, Ariz.89528496172.938
2015DeSean Jackson, Was.49305284106.868
2014Brian Hartline, Mia.6339474298.477
2013• Cecil Shorts, Jac.123667773161.739
2013Santana Moss, Was.79424522101.771
2012• Jordy Nelson, G.B.73497457167.537
2012• Victor Cruz, NYG14386109210255.214
2012• Mike Wallace, Pitt.119648368196.324
2012Torrey Smith, Balt.110498558183.431
2011• Jacoby Ford, Oak.3319279262.0101
2011Kenny Britt, Ten.2617289363.997
2010Donald Driver, G.B.85515654131.553
2010Josh Morgan, S.F.80446982127.558
2008• Greg Jennings, G.B.1408012929265.27
2008• Andre Johnson, Hou.17111515758322.51
2008Reggie Williams, Jac.6337364391.475
2008Santonio Holmes, Pitt.114558215168.032
2006• Randy Moss, Oak.96425533115.359
2006Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.111699466199.624
2005• Torry Holt, St.L.16310213319289.35
2004• Javon Walker, G.B.14489138212299.23
2003• Steve Smith Sr., Car.1428811108251.210
2003Bill Schroeder, Det.8036397287.778
2002Peerless Price, Buff.1489412529271.96
2001• Randy Moss, Min.15482123310270.68
2001Isaac Bruce, St.L.1036411066212.923

Overall, those 38 stat leaders in their following season averaged 61 catches for 846 yards and 5.8 TDs (on 104 targets). The players who had more targets in the follow-up season averaged 96 targets, 59 catches, 761 yards and 4.8 TDs.

That’s not a gigantic difference, of course. Of those 38 target leaders, almost half (16) moved past the stat leader the following season (I’ve got them tagged in the chart below). And every situation must be weighed on its own merits. If either Parker or Thornton (or Nelson Agholor) rips things up, that could change the situation.

But for now, I am ranking Bourne a little higher than Meyers (pictured). I don’t think it makes sense for Meyers to be selected well before Bourne in drafts.

No. 2 guys listed below …

TARGET LEADERS WHO GOT OUTPERFORMED (the next yr)
YearPlayerTgtRecYdsTDPPRRk
2021Tyler Boyd, Cin.94678285184.331
2021Jerry Jeudy, Den.5638467085.085
2020• Robert Woods, LAR129909368247.114
2020• Hunter Renfrow, L.V.77566562133.658
2020Sammy Watkins, K.C.5537421291.487
2020Golden Tate, NYG5235388286.793
2019• Danny Amendola, Det.97626781140.849
2017Brandon LaFell, Cin.89525483124.855
2017Stefon Diggs, Min.95648498198.219
2015• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.14510912159284.57
2014• Mike Wallace, Mia.1156786210214.820
2013• Pierre Garcon, Was.18111313465279.511
2013Justin Blackmon, Jac.4829415176.493
2012• Anquan Boldin, Balt.112659214183.430
2012Greg Jennings, G.B.6236366496.675
2011• Nate Washington, Ten.1217410238224.815
2011Louis Murphy, Oak.3315241152.0112
2010• Greg Jennings, G.B.12576126512274.45
2010• Wes Welker, N.E.123868487212.818
2008• Dennis Northcutt, Jac.68445452111.460
2008Donald Driver, G.B.1167410125205.622
2008Kevin Walter, Hou.95608998200.223
2006• Anquan Boldin, Ariz.1528312034230.115
2005• Kevin Johnson, Det.3117133030.3121
2004• Eric Moulds, Buff.1528810435224.220
2003Muhsin Muhammad, Car.100548373155.537
2002• Eric Moulds, Buff.180100129210289.95
2002• Peter Warrick, Cin.81536066151.846
2001• Torry Holt, St.L.1338113637259.311
2001Cris Carter, Min.130738716196.529