Ian Allan answers your fantasy questions. In this edition. Identifying the best backup running backs. Hitting on running backs in the middle rounds. Is there a Super Bowl hangover? Success rates of younger running backs. And more.

Question 1

Which backup running backs could be league winners if the team’s starting RB misses extended time?

Jim Higgins (Lafayette, CA)

To clarify, Jim’s question isn’t, “Rank the backup running backs.” He’s instead looking for a list of running backs who might really light things up if given the chance to move into the featured role. It’s a little different.

I would begin with Rhamondre Stevenson (pictured). If he becomes a starter, I think he’ll be as good (maybe better) than Damien Harris. Tony Pollard isn’t as rugged as Ezekiel Elliott but is more explosive; I could see Pollard stringing together some good games if given the chance. And the list must also include Kareem Hunt, though with a slight asterisk, given how well D’Ernest Johnson played last year (Johnson ran for over 120 against the Broncos and Bengals, making is reasonable to wonder if he’s as good as Hunt). And let’s put a couple of rookies on the list: Ken Walker and Brian Robinson. Walker was really explosive at Michigan State, with some potential to start ripping off big plays if Rashaad Penny gets hurt. Robinson doesn’t have that kind of big-play potential, but Washington has an offense that seems to be friendly to running backs – Robinson’s production (if he starts) might not be much different than Antonio Gibson’s. Alexander Mattison and Darrell Henderson both look like above-average backup choices, but neither is a top-5 kind of guy, given their limitations and the offenses they’re in.

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Question 2

I've been loyally with FFI since the 90s - love everything you do. There was a fact you covered a few weeks ago that was quite striking to me - I believe it was that each of the last eight No. 1 overall RBs were in the age range of 21-25. Feeling like the most valuable asset in fantasy is to have the No. 1 RB overall, how do you feel about focusing on a WR in round 1 and then stacking as many as you can get of the RBs in that age range - AJ Dillon, Javonte Williams, Akers, Etienne, etc. - and figuring that even though the path for them to top 5 at the position isn't clear now, history suggests at least one of them will wind up there?

Jay Giampietro (Brooklyn, NY)

It’s a young man’s position. Consider the chart below. It shows the 50 backs in the last 10 years who’ve finished with top-5 numbers (PPR scoring). Only 12 of these backs were older than 26 at the end of the year. Another 8 were 26 years old. So 60 percent of these running backs were younger. I don’t know about drafting those guys exclusively, but you shouldn’t hesitate to draft a running back because you don’t feel he’s proven enough. It’s a position where things are always changing.

In the chart below, the 26-year-olds are tagged with black dots. The older guys are bolded, and there aren’t a lot of them.

TOP-5 RUNNING BACKS (last 10 years)
Year	Player	Age	Run	Rec	Tot	TD	PPR
2019	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	23	1,387	1,005	2,392	19	471.2
2016	David Johnson, Ariz.	25	1,239	879	2,118	20	413.8
2018	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	22	1,098	867	1,965	13	388.0
2017	Todd Gurley, LAR	23	1,305	788	2,093	19	387.3
2018	Saquon Barkley, NYG	21	1,307	721	2,028	15	385.8
2013	Jamaal Charles, K.C.	27	1,287	693	1,980	19	382.0
2020	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	25	932	756	1,688	21	377.8
2021	Jonathan Taylor, Ind.	22	1,811	360	2,171	20	377.1
2018	Todd Gurley, LAR	24	1,251	580	1,831	21	374.1
2014	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	22	1,361	854	2,215	11	370.5
2014	• DeMarco Murray, Dall.	26	1,845	416	2,261	13	361.1
2018	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	23	883	709	1,592	18	354.2
2012	Adrian Peterson, Min.	27	2,097	217	2,314	13	351.4
2014	Matt Forte, Chi.	29	1,038	808	1,846	10	350.6
2021	• Austin Ekeler, LAC	26	911	647	1,558	20	349.8
2017	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	25	1,291	655	1,946	11	345.6
2020	Dalvin Cook, Min.	25	1,557	361	1,918	17	343.8
2013	Matt Forte, Chi.	28	1,339	594	1,933	12	341.3
2020	• Derrick Henry, Ten.	26	2,027	114	2,141	17	337.1
2013	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	25	1,607	539	2,146	11	332.6
2018	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	23	1,434	567	2,001	9	331.1
2016	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	21	1,631	363	1,994	16	327.4
2017	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	22	728	826	1,554	14	322.4
2015	Devonta Freeman, Atl.	23	1,056	578	1,634	14	320.4
2016	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	24	1,268	616	1,884	9	319.4
2019	Aaron Jones, G.B.	25	1,084	474	1,558	19	318.8
2019	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	24	1,357	420	1,777	14	315.7
2012	Doug Martin, T.B.	23	1,454	472	1,926	12	313.6
2019	Austin Ekeler, LAC	24	557	993	1,550	11	313.0
2014	Marshawn Lynch, Sea.	28	1,306	367	1,673	17	306.3
2012	• Arian Foster, Hou.	26	1,424	217	1,641	17	306.1
2021	Najee Harris, Pitt.	23	1,200	467	1,667	10	300.7
2019	Derrick Henry, Ten.	25	1,540	206	1,746	18	300.6
2016	LeSean McCoy, Buff.	28	1,267	356	1,623	14	298.3
2017	Kareem Hunt, K.C.	22	1,327	455	1,782	11	297.2
2013	• Knowshon Moreno, Den.	26	1,038	548	1,586	13	296.6
2016	DeMarco Murray, Ten.	28	1,287	377	1,664	12	295.9
2021	Joe Mixon, Cin.	25	1,205	314	1,519	16	289.9
2017	Melvin Gordon, LAC	24	1,105	476	1,581	12	288.1
2012	Ray Rice, Balt.	25	1,143	478	1,621	10	283.1
2014	Arian Foster, Hou.	28	1,246	327	1,573	13	277.6
2013	Marshawn Lynch, Sea.	27	1,257	316	1,573	14	277.3
2012	Marshawn Lynch, Sea.	26	1,590	196	1,786	12	273.6
2020	David Montgomery, Chi.	23	1,070	438	1,508	10	266.8
2015	Adrian Peterson, Min.	30	1,485	222	1,707	11	266.7
2020	• Aaron Jones, G.B.	26	1,104	355	1,459	11	258.9
2021	• James Conner, Ariz.	26	752	375	1,127	18	257.7
2015	Danny Woodhead, S.D.	30	336	755	1,091	9	243.1
2015	• Doug Martin, T.B.	26	1,402	271	1,673	7	242.3
2015	DeAngelo Williams, Pitt.	32	907	367	1,274	11	235.4

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Question 3

I'm in a standard 3-man keeper league. Keeping 3 out of: Prescott, Ekeler, Penny, D.Adams, McLaurin, D.Cook, Barkley, T.Lawrence, C.Davis and D.Henderson. Adams is the no-brainer. Leaning Ekeler and Cook with the other 2 spots. I've kept wishing Barkley's natural athletic talent would show up - but alas only injuries. And with him being stuck on a bottom-10 team. What do you think?

Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)

I think Ekeler, not Adams, is the No. 1 keeper. But regardless, you’re not letting either of those guys go. Prescott might be a top-5 quarterback, but given the supply-demand of the position, I don’t think he gets into the conversion. It will be another running back. Penny was really good for the final month of last year, but he’s had a lot of injuries, and I don’t think he’ll be much of a factor as a receiver. Maybe something happens with the Giants in August that causes you to go with Barkley. He’s got a better offensive line in front of him, and maybe the coaching switch has a sizable impact. But if we’re making the decision today, I think it has to be Cook.

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Question 4

The RB dead zone is generally referred to as rounds 3-6 in fantasy drafts where RB hit rates have been historically poor. What are your thoughts on this school of thought?

Andy Whaley (Papillion, NE)

Running back is a volatile position. There will be a lot of backs chosen in the first two rounds who will miss. We know that. So you would think that some chosen in the third and fourth rounds will move up to fill that void. By definition, there will be 10 running backs who finish the season with top-10 numbers – they have to come from somewhere.

Below see a chart that shows the best of the last 100 running backs to finish outside the top 20. That is, I looked at the 10 best running backs from the last 10 years who finished outside the top 20 (using PPR scoring). These are player who ranked between 21st and 30th in scoring, so I would think a good number of them were picked in the third, fourth and fifth rounds of drafts the next year. The chart shows the 34 (about one in 3) who finished with top-30 numbers. Only 19 (about 1 in 5) finished with top-20 numbers.

Not all of the running backs in this chart, of course, last until the third round. Austin Ekeler, for recently, was a top-5 back on my board last year; I don’t think he made it to the middle of the second round in many drafts.

RUNNING BACKS FROM OUTSIDE THE TOP 20
Year	Player	Run	Rec	Tot	TD	PPR	Rk
2021	• Austin Ekeler, LAC	911	647	1,558	20	349.8	2
2019	Aaron Jones, G.B.	1,084	474	1,558	19	318.8	2
2019	Austin Ekeler, LAC	557	993	1,550	11	313.0	4
2020	David Montgomery, Chi.	1,070	438	1,508	10	266.8	4
2021	• James Conner, Ariz.	752	375	1,127	18	257.7	5
2019	Dalvin Cook, Min.	1,135	519	1,654	13	296.4	6
2012	C.J. Spiller, Buff.	1,244	459	1,703	8	261.3	6
2013	DeMarco Murray, Dall.	1,121	350	1,471	10	260.1	6
2020	Josh Jacobs, L.V.	1,065	238	1,303	12	235.3	8
2018	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	444	725	1,169	8	240.0	11
2015	Chris Ivory, NYJ	1,070	217	1,287	8	206.7	11
2013	Danny Woodhead, S.D.	429	605	1,034	8	227.4	12
2020	Melvin Gordon, Den.	986	158	1,144	10	206.4	13
2013	Joique Bell, Det.	650	547	1,197	8	222.7	14
2015	Frank Gore, Ind.	967	267	1,234	7	199.4	14
2013	Ryan Mathews, S.D.	1,255	189	1,444	7	212.4	17
2018	Tevin Coleman, Atl.	800	276	1,076	9	193.6	18
2020	Ronald Jones, T.B.	978	165	1,143	8	190.3	19
2014	Andre Ellington, Ariz.	660	395	1,055	5	181.5	19
2012	BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin.	1,094	104	1,198	6	177.8	21
2015	Rashad Jennings, NYG	863	296	1,159	4	168.9	22
2014	Darren Sproles, Phil.	329	387	716	8	159.6	22
2015	Jonathan Stewart, Car.	989	99	1,088	7	166.8	23
2016	Darren Sproles, Phil.	438	427	865	4	162.5	24
2021	• Myles Gaskin, Mia.	612	234	846	7	175.6	25
2013	DeAngelo Williams, Car.	843	333	1,176	4	167.6	25
2015	Darren Sproles, Phil.	317	388	705	6	161.5	26
2017	Theo Riddick, Det.	286	444	730	5	156.0	26
2012	DeMarco Murray, Dall.	663	251	914	4	150.4	26
2017	Chris Thompson, Was.	294	510	804	6	155.4	27
2016	Jonathan Stewart, Car.	824	60	884	9	150.4	27
2012	DeAngelo Williams, Car.	737	187	924	7	147.4	27
2012	Willis McGahee, Den.	731	221	952	4	147.2	28
2014	Rashad Jennings, NYG	639	226	865	4	140.5	29

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Question 5

I play in a 16-team keeper league where we can keep up to five players. The best unprotected players go back into the auction each fall. Rookies can be kept up to four years. Franchise players can be kept for only one year at an established cost (think $25 out of $100 annual budget), and only one franchise player is allowed per team. My question is whether to hang onto aging franchise-level players (I have Henry and Kupp), or am I better off trading them for exciting young players still under rookie status (like Tee Higgins or Javonte Williams)? What would your strategy be?

Sam Pickering (Oak Park, IL)

Kupp would be one of the top few players on the board; maybe the No. 1 wide receiver. So I would bring him back on the franchise tag. If you could also dish off Henry while getting either Higgins or Williams in return, that would be good. Either would probably be a keeper for you for the next three-four years. (But I’m not sure you’ll be able to find an owner that would be willing to give either of those guys up for 28-year-old Derrick Henry.)

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Question 6

A couple of us were talking about the whether there is really a Super Bowl hangover. Of course, this discussion was over a couple of beers. That got me wondering whether there is a difference in performance/results between the winner and loser the next season? I would think the loser might have a chip on their shoulder and work hard for another trip to the championship game. Is there a difference good or bad?

Frank Catalano (Houston, PA)

Back at the start of the century, there was a five-year run where the team that lost in the Super Bowl finished with a losing record. More recently, teams have done a better job of keeping things going. All but one of the last 15 Super Bowl winners have finished with a winning record. All but two of the last 14 losers have again had a winning record.

SUPER BOWL TEAMS (next year)
Year	Winner (record)	Loser (record)
2000	St. Louis (10-6)	Tennessee (13-3)
2001	Baltimore (10-6)	• NY Giants (7-9)
2002	New England (9-7)	• St. Louis (7-9)
2003	• Tampa Bay (7-9)	• Oakland (4-12)
2004	New England (14-2)	• Carolina (7-9)
2005	New England (10-6)	• Philadelphia (6-10)
2006	• Pittsburgh (8-8)	Seattle (9-7)
2007	Indianapolis (13-3)	• Chicago (7-9)
2008	NY Giants (12-4)	New England (11-5)
2009	Pittsburgh (9-7)	Arizona (10-6)
2010	New Orleans (11-5)	Indianapolis (10-6)
2011	Green Bay (15-1)	Pittsburgh (12-4)
2012	NY Giants (9-7)	New England (12-4)
2013	• Baltimore (8-8)	San Francisco (12-4)
2014	Seattle (12-4)	Denver (12-4)
2015	New England (12-4)	Seattle (10-6)
2016	Denver (9-7)	• Carolina (6-10)
2017	New England (13-3)	Atlanta (10-6)
2018	Philadelphia (9-7)	New England (11-5)
2019	New England (12-4)	LA Rams (9-7)
2020	Kansas City (14-2)	• San Francisco (6-10)
2021	Tampa Bay (13-3)	Kansas City (12-4)
2022	LA Rams (?-?)	Cincinnati (?-?)

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