If you’re looking for a breakout running back, best to focus on guys in their second season. That’s what the numbers indicate.
Since 2000, there have been an average of two running backs per year who make the move up into the top 20 (in overall production) after never before having had a top-40 season. Exactly half of those guys were players in their second season.
By this massaging of the numbers, there have been 44 such running backs in the last 22 season. (Like I said, exactly 2 per year). Half of them have been second-year guys, nine have been third-year players, and six have been players in their fourth season.
The chart was created by playing with numbers in a database, and as a disclaimer, I didn’t make a big effort to run down players who didn’t play at all in their first season. There’s probably also a couple of those guys, but the point in general is made. It regularly happens for a player not to be a big factor in his first season, then to move up into the top 20 in that second season.
Note also that no rookies are listed on the chart below. I’m not trying to gauge those guys here. Instead, I’m looking at how many guys are able to climb up after not being much of a factor.
"BREAKOUT" RUNNING BACKS SINCE 2000 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player (best prev rk) | Yr | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. (49) | 2 | 1,056 | 578 | 1,634 | 14 | 320.4 | 1 |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. (72) | 2 | 1,616 | 604 | 2,220 | 18 | 396.0 | 1 |
2010 | Peyton Hillis, Cle. (51) | 3 | 1,177 | 477 | 1,654 | 13 | 305.1 | 2 |
2009 | Ray Rice, Balt. (49) | 2 | 1,339 | 702 | 2,041 | 8 | 330.1 | 3 |
2001 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. (62) | 2 | 1,318 | 343 | 1,661 | 16 | 306.1 | 4 |
2000 | Ahman Green, G.B. (96) | 3 | 1,175 | 559 | 1,734 | 13 | 324.4 | 4 |
2008 | Michael Turner, Atl. (58) | 5 | 1,699 | 41 | 1,740 | 17 | 282.0 | 4 |
2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. (42) | 2 | 1,695 | 485 | 2,180 | 9 | 333.0 | 5 |
2018 | James Conner, Pitt. (113) | 2 | 973 | 497 | 1,470 | 13 | 284.0 | 6 |
2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. (47) | 5 | 1,025 | 563 | 1,588 | 11 | 296.8 | 6 |
2016 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. (45) | 2 | 997 | 419 | 1,416 | 12 | 254.6 | 7 |
2002 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. (65) | 2 | 1,388 | 352 | 1,740 | 16 | 317.0 | 8 |
2010 | Darren McFadden, Oak. (42) | 3 | 1,157 | 507 | 1,664 | 10 | 273.4 | 8 |
2009 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. (54) | 2 | 1,120 | 297 | 1,417 | 9 | 237.7 | 10 |
2015 | Latavius Murray, Oak. (50) | 4 | 1,066 | 232 | 1,298 | 6 | 206.8 | 10 |
2007 | Earnest Graham, T.B. (127) | 5 | 898 | 324 | 1,222 | 10 | 231.2 | 10 |
2006 | Ladell Betts, Was. (58) | 5 | 1,154 | 445 | 1,599 | 5 | 242.9 | 10 |
2016 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. (85) | 2 | 1,272 | 151 | 1,423 | 8 | 217.3 | 11 |
2014 | C.J. Anderson, Den. (144) | 2 | 849 | 324 | 1,173 | 10 | 211.3 | 11 |
2017 | Dion Lewis, N.E. (43) | 7 | 896 | 214 | 1,110 | 10 | 203.0 | 13 |
2021 | Damien Harris, N.E. (53) | 3 | 929 | 132 | 1,061 | 15 | 214.1 | 14 |
2014 | Matt Asiata, Min. (78) | 4 | 570 | 312 | 882 | 10 | 196.2 | 14 |
2018 | Chris Carson, Sea. (86) | 2 | 1,151 | 163 | 1,314 | 9 | 205.4 | 15 |
2012 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. (73) | 2 | 1,263 | 51 | 1,314 | 12 | 209.4 | 15 |
2014 | Mark Ingram, N.O. (42) | 4 | 964 | 145 | 1,109 | 9 | 193.9 | 15 |
2004 | Reuben Droughns, Den. (95) | 4 | 1,240 | 241 | 1,481 | 8 | 228.1 | 15 |
2015 | Charles Sims, T.B. (73) | 2 | 529 | 561 | 1,090 | 4 | 184.0 | 16 |
2016 | Spencer Ware, K.C. (60) | 4 | 921 | 447 | 1,368 | 5 | 199.8 | 16 |
2009 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. (128) | 2 | 1,108 | 261 | 1,369 | 8 | 209.9 | 17 |
2000 | Michael Pittman, Ariz. (54) | 3 | 719 | 579 | 1,298 | 6 | 238.8 | 17 |
2020 | J.D. McKissic, Was. (49) | 5 | 365 | 589 | 954 | 3 | 193.4 | 17 |
2007 | LenDale White, Ten. (72) | 2 | 1,110 | 114 | 1,224 | 7 | 184.4 | 18 |
2005 | Willie Parker, Pitt. (104) | 2 | 1,202 | 218 | 1,420 | 5 | 190.0 | 18 |
2016 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. (61) | 3 | 988 | 163 | 1,151 | 9 | 198.1 | 18 |
2017 | Alex Collins, Balt. (82) | 2 | 973 | 187 | 1,160 | 6 | 175.0 | 19 |
2008 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. (57) | 2 | 625 | 284 | 909 | 12 | 193.9 | 19 |
2015 | Theo Riddick, Det. (47) | 3 | 133 | 697 | 830 | 3 | 181.0 | 19 |
2010 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E. (67) | 3 | 1,008 | 85 | 1,093 | 13 | 199.3 | 19 |
2018 | Marlon Mack, Ind. (48) | 2 | 908 | 103 | 1,011 | 10 | 182.1 | 20 |
2016 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. (79) | 2 | 520 | 421 | 941 | 11 | 191.1 | 20 |
2003 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. (81) | 2 | 613 | 332 | 945 | 13 | 209.5 | 20 |
2011 | Shonn Greene, NYJ (43) | 3 | 1,054 | 211 | 1,265 | 6 | 192.5 | 20 |
2004 | Nick Goings, Car. (77) | 4 | 821 | 394 | 1,215 | 7 | 208.5 | 20 |
2009 | Cedric Benson, Cin. (43) | 5 | 1,251 | 111 | 1,362 | 6 | 189.2 | 20 |
If we turn the focus back on the 2021 draft, there are certainly plenty of candidates to take a big step forward. Najee Harris, Javonte Williams and Elijah Mitchell all had plenty of success in their first year. Travis Etienne (pictured) is looking like a starter for Jacksonville (though he’s one of those guys who simply didn’t even play in his first year). I like Rhamondre Stevenson. Kenneth Gainwell, Trey Sermon, Chuba Hubbard and Michael Carter were all picked in that draft. Khalil Herbert, Larry Roundtree and Chris Evans went late.
—Ian Allan