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Factoid

Running quarterbacks

Do scrambling QBs 'steal' touchdowns from running backs?

When you have a quarterback who looks likely to run for about 8 TDs on his own – think Jalen Hurts, Trey Lance and Josh Allen – does that make the running backs on that roster less likely to score? It seems that way in a certain sense, but it’s one of those theories that deserves to be looked at more carefully.

The premise, in general is that there are a certain number of rushing touchdowns that will be scored. As the quarterback scores, it leaves fewer remaining scores for the running backs. Seems logical enough.

But when you have a quarterback who can run for touchdowns, some of those scores reasonably might overwise have come on pass plays (or come on drives that might have instead finished with field goals). And it’s pretty clear that a team with a Hurts-Lance-Allen type quarterback will score more rushing touchdowns than an immobile pocket passer like Jared Goff, Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford.

I played around with the numbers some, and the results might surprise you.

In the last 10 years, there have been 25 quarterbacks who’ve scored at least 6 rushing touchdowns in a season. Those teams averaged 12.2 other rushing touchdowns in those years. That is, take away the running quarterback, and those teams averaged 12.2 TD runs.

There have been 40 quarterbacks, meanwhile, who started at least 16 games and didn’t score any rushing touchdowns. Those offenses averaged 12.1 TD runs in those seasons.

The data suggests that, in general, you shouldn’t let a mobile quarterback scare you away from selecting a running back on that team.

QUARTERBACKS WITH 6-PLUS TDs
YearTeamPlayerQBOthers
2020N.E.Cam Newton128
2020Ariz.Kyler Murray1111
2021Phil.Jalen Hurts1015
2015Car.Cam Newton109
2019Buff.Josh Allen94
2020N.O.Taysom Hill822
2020Buff.Josh Allen88
2018Buff.Josh Allen87
2012Car.Cam Newton813
2021Ten.Ryan Tannehill716
2020Ten.Ryan Tannehill719
2020Balt.Lamar Jackson717
2019Balt.Lamar Jackson714
2019Hou.Deshaun Watson710
2012Was.Robert Griffin715
2021Buff.Josh Allen614
2018Dall.Dak Prescott67
2017Dall.Dak Prescott612
2017Car.Cam Newton69
2016Buff.Tyrod Taylor623
2016Dall.Dak Prescott618
2015T.B.Jameis Winston66
2014Sea.Russell Wilson614
2013Car.Cam Newton68
2013NYJGeno Smith66
QUARTERBACKS WHO DON'T RUN (team TDR)
YearTmPlayerTD
2021N.E.Mac Jones24
2021L.V.Derek Carr14
2021LARMatthew Stafford10
2020Ind.Philip Rivers20
2020Det.Matthew Stafford17
2019LACPhilip Rivers12
2018LACPhilip Rivers16
2018Sea.Russell Wilson15
2018Ind.Andrew Luck13
2018Det.Matthew Stafford11
2017N.E.Tom Brady16
2017Atl.Matt Ryan12
2017LACPhilip Rivers10
2017Det.Matthew Stafford10
2017Cin.Andy Dalton6
2016Atl.Matt Ryan20
2016S.D.Philip Rivers10
2016NYGEli Manning6
2015Atl.Matt Ryan13
2015Oak.Derek Carr7
2015NYGEli Manning5
2015S.D.Philip Rivers4
2014Den.Peyton Manning15
2014N.E.Tom Brady13
2014Atl.Matt Ryan11
2014Pitt.Ben Roethlisberger10
2014S.D.Philip Rivers6
2014Oak.Derek Carr4
2013N.E.Tom Brady19
2013Ariz.Carson Palmer12
2013Atl.Matt Ryan11
2013NYGEli Manning11
2013S.D.Philip Rivers9
2012Hou.Matt Schaub19
2012NYGEli Manning18
2012T.B.Josh Freeman13
2012Den.Peyton Manning12
2012S.D.Philip Rivers4

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index