When you have a quarterback who looks likely to run for about 8 TDs on his own – think Jalen Hurts, Trey Lance and Josh Allen – does that make the running backs on that roster less likely to score? It seems that way in a certain sense, but it’s one of those theories that deserves to be looked at more carefully.
The premise, in general is that there are a certain number of rushing touchdowns that will be scored. As the quarterback scores, it leaves fewer remaining scores for the running backs. Seems logical enough.
But when you have a quarterback who can run for touchdowns, some of those scores reasonably might overwise have come on pass plays (or come on drives that might have instead finished with field goals). And it’s pretty clear that a team with a Hurts-Lance-Allen type quarterback will score more rushing touchdowns than an immobile pocket passer like Jared Goff, Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford.
I played around with the numbers some, and the results might surprise you.
In the last 10 years, there have been 25 quarterbacks who’ve scored at least 6 rushing touchdowns in a season. Those teams averaged 12.2 other rushing touchdowns in those years. That is, take away the running quarterback, and those teams averaged 12.2 TD runs.
There have been 40 quarterbacks, meanwhile, who started at least 16 games and didn’t score any rushing touchdowns. Those offenses averaged 12.1 TD runs in those seasons.
The data suggests that, in general, you shouldn’t let a mobile quarterback scare you away from selecting a running back on that team.
QUARTERBACKS WITH 6-PLUS TDs | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Player | QB | Others |
2020 | N.E. | Cam Newton | 12 | 8 |
2020 | Ariz. | Kyler Murray | 11 | 11 |
2021 | Phil. | Jalen Hurts | 10 | 15 |
2015 | Car. | Cam Newton | 10 | 9 |
2019 | Buff. | Josh Allen | 9 | 4 |
2020 | N.O. | Taysom Hill | 8 | 22 |
2020 | Buff. | Josh Allen | 8 | 8 |
2018 | Buff. | Josh Allen | 8 | 7 |
2012 | Car. | Cam Newton | 8 | 13 |
2021 | Ten. | Ryan Tannehill | 7 | 16 |
2020 | Ten. | Ryan Tannehill | 7 | 19 |
2020 | Balt. | Lamar Jackson | 7 | 17 |
2019 | Balt. | Lamar Jackson | 7 | 14 |
2019 | Hou. | Deshaun Watson | 7 | 10 |
2012 | Was. | Robert Griffin | 7 | 15 |
2021 | Buff. | Josh Allen | 6 | 14 |
2018 | Dall. | Dak Prescott | 6 | 7 |
2017 | Dall. | Dak Prescott | 6 | 12 |
2017 | Car. | Cam Newton | 6 | 9 |
2016 | Buff. | Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 23 |
2016 | Dall. | Dak Prescott | 6 | 18 |
2015 | T.B. | Jameis Winston | 6 | 6 |
2014 | Sea. | Russell Wilson | 6 | 14 |
2013 | Car. | Cam Newton | 6 | 8 |
2013 | NYJ | Geno Smith | 6 | 6 |
QUARTERBACKS WHO DON'T RUN (team TDR) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Tm | Player | TD |
2021 | N.E. | Mac Jones | 24 |
2021 | L.V. | Derek Carr | 14 |
2021 | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 10 |
2020 | Ind. | Philip Rivers | 20 |
2020 | Det. | Matthew Stafford | 17 |
2019 | LAC | Philip Rivers | 12 |
2018 | LAC | Philip Rivers | 16 |
2018 | Sea. | Russell Wilson | 15 |
2018 | Ind. | Andrew Luck | 13 |
2018 | Det. | Matthew Stafford | 11 |
2017 | N.E. | Tom Brady | 16 |
2017 | Atl. | Matt Ryan | 12 |
2017 | LAC | Philip Rivers | 10 |
2017 | Det. | Matthew Stafford | 10 |
2017 | Cin. | Andy Dalton | 6 |
2016 | Atl. | Matt Ryan | 20 |
2016 | S.D. | Philip Rivers | 10 |
2016 | NYG | Eli Manning | 6 |
2015 | Atl. | Matt Ryan | 13 |
2015 | Oak. | Derek Carr | 7 |
2015 | NYG | Eli Manning | 5 |
2015 | S.D. | Philip Rivers | 4 |
2014 | Den. | Peyton Manning | 15 |
2014 | N.E. | Tom Brady | 13 |
2014 | Atl. | Matt Ryan | 11 |
2014 | Pitt. | Ben Roethlisberger | 10 |
2014 | S.D. | Philip Rivers | 6 |
2014 | Oak. | Derek Carr | 4 |
2013 | N.E. | Tom Brady | 19 |
2013 | Ariz. | Carson Palmer | 12 |
2013 | Atl. | Matt Ryan | 11 |
2013 | NYG | Eli Manning | 11 |
2013 | S.D. | Philip Rivers | 9 |
2012 | Hou. | Matt Schaub | 19 |
2012 | NYG | Eli Manning | 18 |
2012 | T.B. | Josh Freeman | 13 |
2012 | Den. | Peyton Manning | 12 |
2012 | S.D. | Philip Rivers | 4 |
—Ian Allan