Part of putting together a credible team involves latching onto the correct offenses. In that regard, I see four that I think have a good chance of being about 10 touchdowns better this year: Broncos, Giants, Ravens and Jaguars.
Denver, with the big addition of Russell Wilson, to me look like the favorites to have the most improved offense. It scored only 36 touchdowns last year, but I could see that offense being almost a touchdown per week better. A rising tide lifts all boats, potentially leaving Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton undervalued in drafts.
The Giants look improved on multiple fronts. The offensive line will be better, and the overall offensive design/scheme should be improved. (They also have the advantage of having scored only 23 TDs last year, making a big upward move easier.)
With the Ravens, injuries are the key. They were the most injury-ravaged team in recent years last year, with both of their main running backs and their left tackle hardly getting on the field. And Lamar Jackson also was shelved late in the season. They’re healthy now, making a big turnaround look likely.
And Jacksonville. I’m not giving up on Trevor Lawrence, and I think they’ll be helped along by better coaching and better personnel. Like the Giants, that offense was terrible last year (scoring only 25 TDs), making a big increase easier.
My overall numbers are below. In the first numerical column, you’re seeing my projections for the upcoming 17 games, with expecting touchdowns rushing and passing. In the next column, you see the same numbers from last year. The final column shows the difference (in total touchdowns) between the two. According to these numbers, 19 offenses will be better, and 13 will be worse (I guess that makes me an optimist).
If my projections are correct, the least-improved teams will be the two franchises that joined the league in 1976 – Seahawks and Bucs. Seattle lost Wilson in the offseason, while the Bucs have a lessened receiving corps and lost a couple of offensive line starters.
| MOST IMPROVED OFFENSES FOR 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Run-Pass-Tot | Previous | Diff |
| Denver | 15.9-33.4-49.4 | 16-20-36 | 13.5 |
| NY Giants | 12.4-21.0-33.4 | 8-15-23 | 10.5 |
| Baltimore | 21.2-28.2-49.4 | 18-21-39 | 10.5 |
| Jacksonville | 11.3-23.1-34.5 | 13-12-25 | 9.5 |
| Las Vegas | 14.1-30.9-45.0 | 14-23-37 | 8.1 |
| Miami | 14.6-26.3-40.9 | 12-21-33 | 8.0 |
| Houston | 10.3-25.1-35.5 | 8-21-29 | 6.5 |
| Philadelphia | 26.5-22.6-49.1 | 25-20-45 | 4.1 |
| NY Jets | 15.1-22.6-37.7 | 14-20-34 | 3.7 |
| New England | 24.3-27.2-51.5 | 24-24-48 | 3.5 |
| Carolina | 13.2-21.2-34.5 | 17-14-31 | 3.5 |
| Detroit | 12.7-25.5-38.2 | 12-23-35 | 3.3 |
| Washington | 13.6-23.6-37.2 | 13-21-34 | 3.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 13.3-22.7-36.1 | 10-23-33 | 3.1 |
| Minnesota | 13.7-33.1-46.9 | 10-34-44 | 2.9 |
| Cincinnati | 17.8-36.8-54.7 | 16-36-52 | 2.7 |
| Chicago | 12.7-19.2-31.9 | 14-16-30 | 2.0 |
| Green Bay | 17.8-35.8-53.7 | 13-39-52 | 1.7 |
| Indianapolis | 21.3-29.1-50.4 | 22-27-49 | 1.4 |
| Cleveland | 19.1-21.7-40.8 | 20-21-41 | -.1 |
| Arizona | 21.8-27.8-49.7 | 23-27-50 | -.3 |
| Atlanta | 12.2-18.0-30.2 | 11-20-31 | -.7 |
| San Francisco | 23.6-23.1-46.7 | 22-26-48 | -1.3 |
| LA Rams | 12.0-37.2-49.3 | 10-41-51 | -1.7 |
| LA Chargers | 15.8-38.2-54.0 | 18-38-56 | -1.9 |
| Kansas City | 15.9-35.0-51.0 | 16-37-53 | -2.0 |
| Buffalo | 17.0-36.7-53.7 | 20-36-56 | -2.3 |
| Tennessee | 21.0-21.5-42.6 | 23-22-45 | -2.3 |
| New Orleans | 14.2-23.4-37.7 | 12-29-41 | -3.3 |
| Dallas | 14.4-36.5-51.0 | 15-40-55 | -4.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 16.1-35.0-51.1 | 18-43-61 | -9.8 |
| Seattle | 13.6-21.4-35.0 | 18-30-48 | -13.0 |
—Ian Allan