What can be expected from Treylon Burks (and other first-round rookie wideouts)? Six were selected in the top 20 picks back in April, and most joined teams where there's the potential to be early starters. Actually putting up strong numbers right away in fantasy leagues, though, is a hit-or-miss kind of deal.
Drake London and Garrett Wilson join rebuilding teams with iffy quarterback situations. Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson and Treylon Burks will be working with veteran quarterbacks, but on teams that might prefer to run the ball. Burks specifically dealt with asthma and/or conditioning questions in August. Jameson Williams is likely to miss up to half his rookie season after tearing his ACL in January. Talented guys, all, but there are obstacles for each.
Being selected in the first round, at least, usually ensures getting some early opportunities to make an impact. And the last two years have produced a trio of immediate stars in Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase and Jaylen Waddle. So it happens.
I took a look at the rookie seasons from the last decade of first-round picks. There have been 40 such wide receivers, so exactly 4 per season.
Of those 40, about a third (14) have finished their rookie seasons ranked in the top 36 at the position in PPR leagues -- fantasy starters in typical 12-team, 3-WR leagues. Five more have made it into the top 50, which we'll call sometime starters.
Nearly half (19) didn't even finish in the top 60 at wideout. That includes a bunch of guys who are already on their second or third teams or out of the league entirely. Looked at in that light, nobody should be falling over themselves to select these players in drafts.
All first-rounders aren't created equal, though. Some of the flops -- Harry, Jenkins, Treadwell, Doctson -- weren't even selected in the top 20 picks (all six of this year's first-rounders were). With four of the six selected in the top 12, odds look a little better.
Rookie numbers from the last decade of first-round picks, sorted by PPR rank, are shown below.
| FIRST-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, 2012-2021 (ROOKIE NUMBERS) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Rk |
| 5 | 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 128 | 81 | 1455 | 18.0 | 13 | 5 |
| 22 | 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1400 | 15.9 | 7 | 6 |
| 12 | 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 130 | 91 | 1305 | 14.3 | 12 | 8 |
| 6 | 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 9.8 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 122 | 68 | 1051 | 15.5 | 12 | 13 |
| 28 | 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 145 | 73 | 1008 | 13.8 | 9 | 16 |
| 26 | 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 92 | 64 | 821 | 12.8 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 130 | 72 | 1070 | 14.9 | 6 | 21 |
| 17 | 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 111 | 74 | 935 | 12.6 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 128 | 65 | 982 | 15.1 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 132 | 64 | 865 | 13.5 | 5 | 29 |
| 10 | 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 104 | 64 | 916 | 14.3 | 5 | 30 |
| 25 | 2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 96 | 60 | 748 | 12.5 | 7 | 35 |
| 24 | 2018 | DJ Moore, Car. | 82 | 55 | 788 | 14.3 | 2 | 36 |
| 29 | 2013 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. | 77 | 45 | 469 | 10.4 | 9 | 38 |
| 15 | 2020 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 113 | 52 | 856 | 16.5 | 3 | 45 |
| 20 | 2012 | Kendall Wright, Ten. | 104 | 64 | 626 | 9.8 | 4 | 45 |
| 25 | 2019 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 71 | 46 | 584 | 12.7 | 7 | 46 |
| 27 | 2013 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 91 | 52 | 802 | 15.4 | 2 | 49 |
| 8 | 2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 69 | 40 | 418 | 10.5 | 6 | 53 |
| 20 | 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 69 | 53 | 550 | 10.4 | 4 | 56 |
| 21 | 2016 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 92 | 47 | 635 | 13.5 | 3 | 61 |
| 13 | 2012 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 86 | 45 | 562 | 12.5 | 2 | 65 |
| 27 | 2021 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 68 | 46 | 515 | 11.2 | 1 | 70 |
| 14 | 2015 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 50 | 26 | 494 | 19.0 | 3 | 78 |
| 15 | 2016 | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 73 | 33 | 413 | 12.5 | 3 | 83 |
| 5 | 2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 65 | 34 | 375 | 11.0 | 0 | 85 |
| 20 | 2021 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 57 | 39 | 420 | 10.8 | 0 | 89 |
| 12 | 2020 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 43 | 26 | 452 | 17.4 | 2 | 89 |
| 21 | 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 54 | 31 | 396 | 12.8 | 2 | 91 |
| 20 | 2015 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 44 | 23 | 283 | 12.3 | 1 | 101 |
| 29 | 2015 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 39 | 18 | 225 | 12.5 | 1 | 110 |
| 32 | 2019 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 24 | 12 | 105 | 8.8 | 2 | 124 |
| 7 | 2017 | Mike Williams, LAC | 23 | 11 | 95 | 8.6 | 0 | 139 |
| 22 | 2016 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 6 | 2 | 66 | 33.0 | 0 | 170 |
| 23 | 2016 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 3 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 188 |
| 9 | 2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | |
| 26 | 2015 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 | |
| 7 | 2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 | |
| 30 | 2012 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 | |
--Andy Richardson