I think the Panthers will win the Christian McCaffrey trade. He’s a nice player, but that’s a big price tag for a 26-year-old running back – it’s not a coveted position.
To obtain McCaffrey, the 49ers are giving up their second-, third- and fourth-round picks in next year’s draft, plus their fifth-round selection in 2024. They’re also taking on McCaffrey’s contract, which includes an $11.8 million base salary the next two years.
Great running backs can become average running backs in a hurry. And in today’s cap-driven game, it’s not good business to be trapped overpaying for a modest running back. Consider Todd Gurley, LeVeon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott. They were great, McCaffrey-type running backs early in their careers, and they soured pretty quickly, with their contracts turning into burdens.
McCaffrey is set up to be one of those guys.
Below see a chart showing all running backs in the last 20 years who’ve had two top-5 seasons (using PPR scoring) early in their careers. The chart shows not their huge early-career numbers, but how they performed in the seasons where they were 27, 28 and 29 years old (three seasons for each player). Of these group, there are only five seasons where a player again finished with top 5 numbers (and I’ve them tagged with black dots).
In general, it looks like McCaffrey is way more likely to be a good back rather than a great one. And you don’t give up that kind of haul for such a player. For this trade to work out for the 49ers, McCaffrey needs to lift them to the top of a lesser NFC, getting them to another Super Bowl. That’s not likely to happen.
The deal makes a lot more sense from the Carolina side. They’re hitting the reset button, so makes a ton of sense to accumulate assets. If the trade results in them picking even earlier in the draft, that will be a plus.
ELITE BACKS IN LATE 20s | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | Rushing | Receiving | Yards | TD |
2012 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 27 | 348-2097-12 | 40-217-1 | 2314 | 13 |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 28 | 279-1266-10 | 29-171-1 | 1437 | 11 |
2014 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 29 | 21-75-0 | 2-18-0 | 93 | 0 |
2004 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 27 | 259-1163-7 | 40-275-1 | 1438 | 8 |
2006 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 29 | 266-1059-5 | 46-373-1 | 1432 | 6 |
2005 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 28 | 77-255-0 | 19-147-0 | 402 | 0 |
2022 | Alvin Kamara | 27 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2023 | Alvin Kamara | 28 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2024 | Alvin Kamara | 29 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2014 | • Arian Foster, Hou. | 28 | 260-1246-8 | 38-327-5 | 1573 | 13 |
2013 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 27 | 121-542-1 | 22-183-1 | 725 | 2 |
2015 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 29 | 63-163-1 | 22-227-2 | 390 | 3 |
2023 | Christian McCaffrey | 27 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2024 | Christian McCaffrey | 28 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2025 | Christian McCaffrey | 29 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2022 | Ezekiel Elliott | 27 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2023 | Ezekiel Elliott | 28 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2024 | Ezekiel Elliott | 29 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
2006 | • LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 27 | 348-1815-28 | 56-508-3 | 2323 | 31 |
2007 | • LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 28 | 315-1474-15 | 60-475-3 | 1949 | 18 |
2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 29 | 292-1110-11 | 52-426-1 | 1536 | 12 |
2016 | • LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 28 | 234-1267-13 | 50-356-1 | 1623 | 14 |
2017 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 29 | 287-1138-6 | 59-448-2 | 1586 | 8 |
2015 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 27 | 203-895-3 | 32-292-2 | 1187 | 5 |
2019 | LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 27 | 245-789-3 | 66-461-1 | 1250 | 4 |
2020 | LeVeon Bell, 2TM | 28 | 82-328-2 | 16-138-0 | 466 | 2 |
2021 | LeVeon Bell, 2TM | 29 | 39-101-2 | 5-30-1 | 131 | 3 |
2013 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 28 | 234-803-5 | 43-314-0 | 1117 | 5 |
2012 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 27 | 86-414-1 | 14-86-1 | 500 | 2 |
2014 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Oak. | 29 | 43-96-0 | 11-71-0 | 167 | 0 |
2014 | Ray Rice | 27 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 |
2015 | Ray Rice | 28 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 |
2016 | Ray Rice | 29 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 |
2021 | Todd Gurley | 27 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 |
2022 | Todd Gurley | 28 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 |
2023 | Todd Gurley | 29 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 |
For dynasty league purposes, I would like to downgrade McCaffrey on my board. He’s on the backside of his career (at 26, he’s already played his best ball). But there’s something to be said for winning now, and he’s got a fantasy-friendly playing style. Not only do running backs who catch passes grade out favorably (particularly in PPR), but those guys can have longer careers.
If I were walking into a start-from-scratch dynasty draft today, I would think McCaffrey would still be one of the top half-dozen players picked at his position.
I may be giving more weight to the here-and-now than some others would. Kenneth Walker and injured Javonte Williams, for example, have a lot career left ahead of them than McCaffrey, but there’s something to be said for grabbing that good half season that’s right in front of us. Particularly with running backs, it’s hard to count on something you think or hope might happen in two years.
My top 80 at the position appears below. I’m assuming PPR scoring, and I’m assuming 12 franchises, with teams allowed to hold players indefinitely. Rookies are tagged with black dots.
I turned my attention to dynasty drafts every Saturday, rotating between the four notable positions. To see past installments, use the “past issues” navigation box.
Last week: Quarterbacks.
Next week: Tight ends.
DYNASTY LEAGUE RUNNING BACKS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rk | Tm | Player | Age |
1. | IND | Jonathan Taylor | 23.8 |
2. | NYJ | • Breece Hall | 21.4 |
3. | NYG | Saquon Barkley | 25.7 |
4. | CIN | Joe Mixon | 26.3 |
5. | LAC | Austin Ekeler | 27.5 |
6. | SF | Christian McCaffrey | 26.4 |
7. | CLE | Nick Chubb | 26.8 |
8. | HOU | • Dameon Pierce | 22.7 |
9. | DET | D'Andre Swift | 23.8 |
10. | LV | Josh Jacobs | 24.7 |
11. | PIT | Najee Harris | 24.6 |
12. | SEA | • Kenneth Walker | 22.0 |
13. | MIN | Dalvin Cook | 27.2 |
14. | NO | Alvin Kamara | 27.3 |
15. | TEN | Derrick Henry | 28.8 |
16. | TB | Leonard Fournette | 27.8 |
17. | JAC | Travis Etienne | 23.8 |
18. | GB | Aaron Jones | 27.9 |
19. | NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | 24.7 |
20. | ARI | James Conner | 27.5 |
21. | DEN | Javonte Williams | 22.5 |
22. | WAS | • Brian Robinson | 23.6 |
23. | GB | AJ Dillon | 24.5 |
24. | CHI | David Montgomery | 25.4 |
25. | PHI | Miles Sanders | 25.5 |
26. | BUF | Devin Singletary | 25.2 |
27. | DAL | Ezekiel Elliott | 27.3 |
28. | NE | Damien Harris | 25.7 |
29. | KC | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 23.5 |
30. | CLE | Kareem Hunt | 27.2 |
31. | ATL | Cordarrelle Patterson | 31.6 |
32. | LAR | Darrell Henderson | 25.2 |
33. | DAL | Tony Pollard | 25.5 |
34. | JAC | James Robinson | 24.2 |
35. | CHI | Khalil Herbert | 24.5 |
36. | TB | • Rachaad White | 23.8 |
37. | MIA | Raheem Mostert | 30.6 |
38. | BUF | • James Cook | 23.1 |
39. | KC | • Isiah Pacheco | 23.7 |
40. | NYJ | Michael Carter | 23.5 |
41. | DEN | Latavius Murray | 32.8 |
42. | BAL | J.K. Dobbins | 23.9 |
43. | CAR | D'Onta Foreman | 26.5 |
44. | PIT | • Jaylen Warren | 24.0 |
45. | PHI | Kenneth Gainwell | 23.6 |
46. | LV | • Zamir White | 23.1 |
47. | MIN | Alexander Mattison | 24.4 |
48. | WAS | J.D. McKissic | 29.2 |
49. | IND | Nyheim Hines | 26.0 |
50. | WAS | Antonio Gibson | 24.3 |
51. | ATL | • Tyler Allgeier | 22.5 |
52. | ARI | Eno Benjamin | 23.5 |
53. | KC | Jerick McKinnon | 30.5 |
54. | MIA | Chase Edmonds | 26.5 |
55. | BAL | Kenyan Drake | 28.8 |
56. | CAR | Chuba Hubbard | 23.4 |
57. | DET | Jamaal Williams | 27.6 |
58. | LAR | • Kyren Williams | 22.2 |
59. | DEN | Melvin Gordon | 29.5 |
60. | SF | Elijah Mitchell | 24.5 |
61. | HOU | Rex Burkhead | 32.3 |
62. | BAL | Justice Hill | 25.0 |
63. | SF | • Tyrion Davis-Price | 22.0 |
64. | PHI | Boston Scott | 27.5 |
65. | NO | Mark Ingram | 32.9 |
66. | CIN | Samaje Perine | 27.1 |
67. | BUF | Zack Moss | 24.9 |
68. | LAC | Joshua Kelley | 24.9 |
69. | MIN | • Ty Chandler | 24.5 |
70. | IND | Deon Jackson | 23.7 |
71. | CLE | • Jerome Ford | 23.1 |
72. | TEN | Dontrell Hilliard | 27.7 |
73. | LAC | • Isaiah Spiller | 21.2 |
74. | NE | Ty Montgomery | 29.8 |
75. | SF | Jeff Wilson | 27.0 |
76. | ATL | • Caleb Huntley | 24.1 |
77. | DET | Craig Reynolds | 26.4 |
78. | NYG | Gary Brightwell | 23.7 |
79. | ARI | • Keontay Ingram | 23.0 |
80. | CLE | D'Ernest Johnson | 26.7 |
—Ian Allan