I think the Panthers will win the Christian McCaffrey trade. He’s a nice player, but that’s a big price tag for a 26-year-old running back – it’s not a coveted position.

To obtain McCaffrey, the 49ers are giving up their second-, third- and fourth-round picks in next year’s draft, plus their fifth-round selection in 2024. They’re also taking on McCaffrey’s contract, which includes an $11.8 million base salary the next two years.

Great running backs can become average running backs in a hurry. And in today’s cap-driven game, it’s not good business to be trapped overpaying for a modest running back. Consider Todd Gurley, LeVeon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott. They were great, McCaffrey-type running backs early in their careers, and they soured pretty quickly, with their contracts turning into burdens.

McCaffrey is set up to be one of those guys.

Below see a chart showing all running backs in the last 20 years who’ve had two top-5 seasons (using PPR scoring) early in their careers. The chart shows not their huge early-career numbers, but how they performed in the seasons where they were 27, 28 and 29 years old (three seasons for each player). Of these group, there are only five seasons where a player again finished with top 5 numbers (and I’ve them tagged with black dots).

In general, it looks like McCaffrey is way more likely to be a good back rather than a great one. And you don’t give up that kind of haul for such a player. For this trade to work out for the 49ers, McCaffrey needs to lift them to the top of a lesser NFC, getting them to another Super Bowl. That’s not likely to happen.

The deal makes a lot more sense from the Carolina side. They’re hitting the reset button, so makes a ton of sense to accumulate assets. If the trade results in them picking even earlier in the draft, that will be a plus.

ELITE BACKS IN LATE 20s
YearPlayerAgeRushingReceivingYardsTD
2012• Adrian Peterson, Min.27348-2097-1240-217-1231413
2013Adrian Peterson, Min.28279-1266-1029-171-1143711
2014Adrian Peterson, Min.2921-75-02-18-0930
2004Ahman Green, G.B.27259-1163-740-275-114388
2006Ahman Green, G.B.29266-1059-546-373-114326
2005Ahman Green, G.B.2877-255-019-147-04020
2022Alvin Kamara27?-?-??-?-???
2023Alvin Kamara28?-?-??-?-???
2024Alvin Kamara29?-?-??-?-???
2014• Arian Foster, Hou.28260-1246-838-327-5157313
2013Arian Foster, Hou.27121-542-122-183-17252
2015Arian Foster, Hou.2963-163-122-227-23903
2023Christian McCaffrey27?-?-??-?-???
2024Christian McCaffrey28?-?-??-?-???
2025Christian McCaffrey29?-?-??-?-???
2022Ezekiel Elliott27?-?-??-?-???
2023Ezekiel Elliott28?-?-??-?-???
2024Ezekiel Elliott29?-?-??-?-???
2006• LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.27348-1815-2856-508-3232331
2007• LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.28315-1474-1560-475-3194918
2008LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.29292-1110-1152-426-1153612
2016• LeSean McCoy, Buff.28234-1267-1350-356-1162314
2017LeSean McCoy, Buff.29287-1138-659-448-215868
2015LeSean McCoy, Buff.27203-895-332-292-211875
2019LeVeon Bell, NYJ27245-789-366-461-112504
2020LeVeon Bell, 2TM2882-328-216-138-04662
2021LeVeon Bell, 2TM2939-101-25-30-11313
2013Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.28234-803-543-314-011175
2012Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.2786-414-114-86-15002
2014Maurice Jones-Drew, Oak.2943-96-011-71-01670
2014Ray Rice270-0-00-0-000
2015Ray Rice280-0-00-0-000
2016Ray Rice290-0-00-0-000
2021Todd Gurley270-0-00-0-000
2022Todd Gurley280-0-00-0-000
2023Todd Gurley290-0-00-0-000

For dynasty league purposes, I would like to downgrade McCaffrey on my board. He’s on the backside of his career (at 26, he’s already played his best ball). But there’s something to be said for winning now, and he’s got a fantasy-friendly playing style. Not only do running backs who catch passes grade out favorably (particularly in PPR), but those guys can have longer careers.

If I were walking into a start-from-scratch dynasty draft today, I would think McCaffrey would still be one of the top half-dozen players picked at his position.

I may be giving more weight to the here-and-now than some others would. Kenneth Walker and injured Javonte Williams, for example, have a lot career left ahead of them than McCaffrey, but there’s something to be said for grabbing that good half season that’s right in front of us. Particularly with running backs, it’s hard to count on something you think or hope might happen in two years.

My top 80 at the position appears below. I’m assuming PPR scoring, and I’m assuming 12 franchises, with teams allowed to hold players indefinitely. Rookies are tagged with black dots.

I turned my attention to dynasty drafts every Saturday, rotating between the four notable positions. To see past installments, use the “past issues” navigation box.

Last week: Quarterbacks.

Next week: Tight ends.

DYNASTY LEAGUE RUNNING BACKS
RkTmPlayerAge
1.INDJonathan Taylor23.8
2.NYJ• Breece Hall21.4
3.NYGSaquon Barkley25.7
4.CINJoe Mixon26.3
5.LACAustin Ekeler27.5
6.SFChristian McCaffrey26.4
7.CLENick Chubb26.8
8.HOU• Dameon Pierce22.7
9.DETD'Andre Swift23.8
10.LVJosh Jacobs24.7
11.PITNajee Harris24.6
12.SEA• Kenneth Walker22.0
13.MINDalvin Cook27.2
14.NOAlvin Kamara27.3
15.TENDerrick Henry28.8
16.TBLeonard Fournette27.8
17.JACTravis Etienne23.8
18.GBAaron Jones27.9
19.NERhamondre Stevenson24.7
20.ARIJames Conner27.5
21.DENJavonte Williams22.5
22.WAS• Brian Robinson23.6
23.GBAJ Dillon24.5
24.CHIDavid Montgomery25.4
25.PHIMiles Sanders25.5
26.BUFDevin Singletary25.2
27.DALEzekiel Elliott27.3
28.NEDamien Harris25.7
29.KCClyde Edwards-Helaire23.5
30.CLEKareem Hunt27.2
31.ATLCordarrelle Patterson31.6
32.LARDarrell Henderson25.2
33.DALTony Pollard25.5
34.JACJames Robinson24.2
35.CHIKhalil Herbert24.5
36.TB• Rachaad White23.8
37.MIARaheem Mostert30.6
38.BUF• James Cook23.1
39.KC• Isiah Pacheco23.7
40.NYJMichael Carter23.5
41.DENLatavius Murray32.8
42.BALJ.K. Dobbins23.9
43.CARD'Onta Foreman26.5
44.PIT• Jaylen Warren24.0
45.PHIKenneth Gainwell23.6
46.LV• Zamir White23.1
47.MINAlexander Mattison24.4
48.WASJ.D. McKissic29.2
49.INDNyheim Hines26.0
50.WASAntonio Gibson24.3
51.ATL• Tyler Allgeier22.5
52.ARIEno Benjamin23.5
53.KCJerick McKinnon30.5
54.MIAChase Edmonds26.5
55.BALKenyan Drake28.8
56.CARChuba Hubbard23.4
57.DETJamaal Williams27.6
58.LAR• Kyren Williams22.2
59.DENMelvin Gordon29.5
60.SFElijah Mitchell24.5
61.HOURex Burkhead32.3
62.BALJustice Hill25.0
63.SF• Tyrion Davis-Price22.0
64.PHIBoston Scott27.5
65.NOMark Ingram32.9
66.CINSamaje Perine27.1
67.BUFZack Moss24.9
68.LACJoshua Kelley24.9
69.MIN• Ty Chandler24.5
70.INDDeon Jackson23.7
71.CLE• Jerome Ford23.1
72.TENDontrell Hilliard27.7
73.LAC• Isaiah Spiller21.2
74.NETy Montgomery29.8
75.SFJeff Wilson27.0
76.ATL• Caleb Huntley24.1
77.DETCraig Reynolds26.4
78.NYGGary Brightwell23.7
79.ARI• Keontay Ingram23.0
80.CLED'Ernest Johnson26.7

—Ian Allan