The Colts pulled the plug after one year of Carson Wentz. They’re not even waiting that long on Matt Ryan. They’re putting in youngster Sam Ehlinger for the remainder of the season.
Ryan has been largely a disaster, with too many sacks, fumbles and interceptions. With limited mobility, he’s struggled behind a lesser offensive line. On the plus side, the Colts are sitting at 3-3-1, still very much in the picture.
I like the move. It’s not as if they’re giving up much by benching Ryan. And Ehlinger (who was their third-stringer quarterback until recently) could give them a spark. His mobility, for one, adds a dimension. He’s run for 126 yards on 17 carries in the preseason the last two years, with a 45-yard touchdown. He runs well enough that they plugged him in as a designated runner for a few plays last year.
Ehlinger’s numbers in August were a lot better than Ryan’s. He completed 24 of 29 passes for 289 yards, with 4 TDs and no interceptions. Most of that came against lesser opposition, of course, but why not toss him into the lineup and see what he can do? It wasn’t happening with Ryan.
Ehlinger was effective at Texas, averaging 257 yards in his last 37 starts, with 83 TDs versus only 20 interceptions. He completed 65 percent in his sophomore and junior seasons (before dipping as a senior).
For fantasy purposes, I expect Ehlinger’s mobility will make him sneaky decent at times.
At the same time, we’re talking about a sixth-round pick. While that was Tom Brady’s round, when quarterbacks last until the sixth round, that usually doesn’t translate into productive careers. Especially early.
Below see the last 20 quarterbacks selected outside the first three rounds of the draft who started at least eight games in their first year as a starter. (Some of these guys are rookies, but others didn’t start until later in their careers).
Of these 20, four posted top-15 per-game numbers in their first season. That’s when compared to other quarterbacks starting at least half the season. And five others ranked between 17th and 20th.
So just over half (11 of 20) posted numbers outside the top 20 in their first season.
In this particular case, Ehlinger is going to a pretty good team. I would think he’s got a decent chance of posting top-20 per-game numbers the rest of the way. If you’ve got a bye week quarterback for Week 8, I would think Ehlinger should be on the list of possible fill-in candidates.
| LIGHTLY REGARDED QUARTERBACKS IN FIRST SEASON | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rd | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2001 | Matt Hasselbeck, Sea. | 6 | 12 | 169 | .58 | .67 | 12 | .00 | 12.0 | 30 |
| 2001 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 6 | 14 | 200 | 1.29 | .86 | 2 | .00 | 15.4 | 24 |
| 2001 | Chris Weinke, Car. | 4 | 15 | 195 | .73 | 1.27 | 9 | .40 | 16.0 | 20 |
| 2002 | Chad Hutchinson, Dall. | FA | 9 | 173 | .78 | .89 | 8 | .00 | 12.6 | 30 |
| 2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 4 | 15 | 125 | .60 | .87 | 3 | .00 | 8.9 | 32 |
| 2005 | Brooks Bollinger, NYJ | 6 | 9 | 151 | .56 | .67 | 13 | .00 | 11.1 | 31 |
| 2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 6 | 11 | 149 | .82 | .82 | 15 | .00 | 12.2 | 32 |
| 2006 | • Tony Romo, Dall. | FA | 10 | 264 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 9 | .00 | 20.7 | 4 |
| 2008 | J.T. O'Sullivan, S.F. | 6 | 8 | 210 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 18 | .00 | 16.6 | 17 |
| 2008 | • Matt Cassel, N.E. | 7 | 15 | 236 | 1.33 | .73 | 17 | .13 | 19.9 | 10 |
| 2008 | • Tyler Thigpen, K.C. | 7 | 11 | 213 | 1.55 | 1.00 | 31 | .18 | 21.0 | 8 |
| 2011 | Curtis Painter, Ind. | 6 | 8 | 185 | .75 | 1.13 | 13 | .00 | 13.6 | 31 |
| 2013 | Case Keenum, Hou. | FA | 8 | 220 | 1.13 | .75 | 9 | .13 | 17.2 | 26 |
| 2014 | Austin Davis, St.L. | FA | 8 | 226 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 5 | .00 | 17.8 | 25 |
| 2015 | • Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 6 | 14 | 217 | 1.43 | .43 | 41 | .29 | 22.5 | 14 |
| 2016 | Trevor Siemian, Den. | 7 | 14 | 243 | 1.29 | .71 | 4 | .00 | 17.8 | 26 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4 | 16 | 229 | 1.44 | .25 | 18 | .38 | 21.2 | 17 |
| 2017 | Brett Hundley, G.B. | 5 | 9 | 204 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 30 | .22 | 18.8 | 17 |
| 2018 | Nick Mullens, S.F. | FA | 8 | 285 | 1.63 | 1.25 | -2 | .00 | 20.8 | 20 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 6 | 12 | 237 | 1.50 | .33 | 28 | .00 | 21.0 | 18 |
| 2022 | Sam Ehlinger, Ind. | 6 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan