It’s looking unlikely Lamar Jackson will be healthy on Sunday. He didn’t practice today. That makes it seem unlikely the Ravens can make a run at a first-round upset in Cincinnati. Nonetheless, it looks like a lesser matchup for the Bengals, given the way Baltimore’s defense has been playing.
The Ravens famously let Tua Tagovailoa throw 6 touchdowns back in Week 2, with receivers consistently running free in the secondary. But they’ve got everybody on the same page now, operating like one of the very best defenses in the league.
Baltimore’s defense has allowed only 12 touchdowns in its last 10 games. That’s 5 fewer than any other defense in the postseason At very times this year, people have talked up the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys and Bills, but the Ravens defensively are playing better than all of them right now.
| DEFENSE, TOUCHDOWNS (last 10 G) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Run | Pass | Total |
| Baltimore | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| NY Jets | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| New Orleans | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| • San Francisco | 4 | 13 | 17 |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 16 | 19 |
| Washington | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| Atlanta | 8 | 13 | 21 |
| Cleveland | 9 | 12 | 21 |
| • LA Chargers | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| New England | 3 | 18 | 21 |
| • Buffalo | 6 | 16 | 22 |
| • Cincinnati | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| LA Rams | 8 | 14 | 22 |
| Detroit | 9 | 14 | 23 |
| • Jacksonville | 7 | 16 | 23 |
| • Kansas City | 7 | 16 | 23 |
| • Miami | 7 | 16 | 23 |
| • Philadelphia | 9 | 14 | 23 |
| • Seattle | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| Tennessee | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| • Dallas | 7 | 17 | 24 |
| Las Vegas | 14 | 10 | 24 |
| • Minnesota | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| Denver | 8 | 17 | 25 |
| Houston | 15 | 10 | 25 |
| • NY Giants | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | 18 | 26 |
| Carolina | 10 | 17 | 27 |
| Green Bay | 11 | 16 | 27 |
| Indianapolis | 14 | 17 | 31 |
| Arizona | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| Chicago | 21 | 17 | 38 |
The Ravens are particularly good against the run. They’ve allowed an average of only 83 rushing yards in their last 10 games, and with only 3 rushing touchdowns. Using standard fantasy scoring, that works out the 2nd-best run defense numbers in the league. I wouldn’t think Joe Mixon (pictured) will be a big factor in the first round.
| RUN DEFENSE (last 10 G) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | F Pts/G |
| • San Francisco | 209 | 684 | 3.3 | 4 | 9.2 |
| Baltimore | 242 | 830 | 3.4 | 3 | 10.1 |
| New England | 245 | 836 | 3.4 | 3 | 10.2 |
| Tennessee | 240 | 683 | 2.8 | 8 | 11.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 239 | 1,006 | 4.2 | 3 | 11.9 |
| • Miami | 249 | 1,028 | 4.1 | 7 | 14.5 |
| Washington | 259 | 1,098 | 4.2 | 7 | 15.2 |
| Denver | 270 | 1,076 | 4.0 | 8 | 15.6 |
| • Buffalo | 257 | 1,216 | 4.7 | 6 | 15.8 |
| • Cincinnati | 254 | 980 | 3.9 | 10 | 15.8 |
| • Jacksonville | 281 | 1,179 | 4.2 | 7 | 16.0 |
| • Kansas City | 264 | 1,179 | 4.5 | 7 | 16.0 |
| NY Jets | 301 | 1,331 | 4.4 | 6 | 16.9 |
| LA Rams | 282 | 1,220 | 4.3 | 8 | 17.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 271 | 1,224 | 4.5 | 8 | 17.0 |
| New Orleans | 304 | 1,356 | 4.5 | 7 | 17.8 |
| • Dallas | 308 | 1,357 | 4.4 | 7 | 17.8 |
| • Philadelphia | 290 | 1,265 | 4.4 | 9 | 18.1 |
| Carolina | 283 | 1,239 | 4.4 | 10 | 18.4 |
| Cleveland | 285 | 1,350 | 4.7 | 9 | 18.9 |
| • Minnesota | 283 | 1,340 | 4.7 | 10 | 19.4 |
| Detroit | 266 | 1,407 | 5.3 | 9 | 19.5 |
| Atlanta | 337 | 1,512 | 4.5 | 8 | 19.9 |
| Green Bay | 275 | 1,395 | 5.1 | 11 | 20.6 |
| Indianapolis | 299 | 1,245 | 4.2 | 14 | 20.9 |
| • LA Chargers | 288 | 1,515 | 5.3 | 10 | 21.2 |
| • NY Giants | 293 | 1,440 | 4.9 | 12 | 21.6 |
| • Seattle | 313 | 1,506 | 4.8 | 11 | 21.7 |
| Las Vegas | 276 | 1,327 | 4.8 | 14 | 21.7 |
| Arizona | 280 | 1,308 | 4.7 | 15 | 22.1 |
| Houston | 339 | 1,592 | 4.7 | 15 | 24.9 |
| Chicago | 321 | 1,626 | 5.1 | 21 | 28.9 |
They’ve also been good against the pass. In their last 10 games, they’ve allowed an average of 212 passing yards per game, and with only 9 TD passes. All of the other 13 teams in the postseason have allowed more touchdown passes in their last 10 games.
Joe Burrow is a difference-maker quarterback; I think he’s a Mahomes-Allen kind of guy. But it doesn’t look likely that he’ll put up 300 yards and 3 TDs against this defense. If you’re in a league that allows players to be used only once, better to save Burrow for a future round.
| PASS DEFENSE (last 10 G) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pct | Yds/G | TD | Int | F Pts/G |
| New Orleans | 58.0% | 161.3 | 7 | 6 | 20.3 |
| NY Jets | 63.1% | 175.4 | 7 | 4 | 21.7 |
| Washington | 60.6% | 172.9 | 12 | 7 | 24.5 |
| • LA Chargers | 57.0% | 186.6 | 11 | 7 | 25.3 |
| • Seattle | 60.4% | 184.9 | 12 | 9 | 25.7 |
| Atlanta | 61.7% | 179.6 | 13 | 4 | 25.8 |
| Cleveland | 60.9% | 186.3 | 12 | 9 | 25.8 |
| • Philadelphia | 67.2% | 177.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.1 |
| Houston | 67.4% | 203.5 | 10 | 9 | 26.4 |
| Baltimore | 65.7% | 211.8 | 9 | 6 | 26.6 |
| • Kansas City | 64.0% | 181.7 | 16 | 8 | 27.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 61.8% | 185.1 | 16 | 12 | 28.1 |
| Las Vegas | 66.5% | 232.2 | 10 | 3 | 29.2 |
| • NY Giants | 64.8% | 216.1 | 14 | 5 | 30.0 |
| • Cincinnati | 60.4% | 235.7 | 12 | 8 | 30.8 |
| Arizona | 71.3% | 210.5 | 17 | 6 | 31.3 |
| Green Bay | 63.6% | 216.7 | 16 | 15 | 31.3 |
| • Dallas | 61.7% | 211.9 | 17 | 9 | 31.4 |
| • San Francisco | 65.1% | 236.2 | 13 | 14 | 31.4 |
| Detroit | 58.7% | 231.4 | 14 | 10 | 31.5 |
| • Buffalo | 62.9% | 220.1 | 16 | 7 | 31.6 |
| • Miami | 65.3% | 220.6 | 16 | 4 | 31.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 64.3% | 213.1 | 18 | 4 | 32.1 |
| LA Rams | 66.7% | 240.2 | 14 | 11 | 32.4 |
| Indianapolis | 68.1% | 223.7 | 17 | 7 | 32.6 |
| Carolina | 67.0% | 225.1 | 17 | 6 | 32.7 |
| New England | 62.5% | 222.1 | 18 | 12 | 33.0 |
| • Jacksonville | 64.4% | 238.8 | 16 | 7 | 33.5 |
| Denver | 65.9% | 236.2 | 17 | 11 | 33.8 |
| • Minnesota | 64.2% | 258.6 | 14 | 8 | 34.3 |
| Chicago | 69.4% | 245.4 | 17 | 6 | 34.7 |
| Tennessee | 64.2% | 288.8 | 15 | 7 | 37.9 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan