It’s looking unlikely Lamar Jackson will be healthy on Sunday. He didn’t practice today. That makes it seem unlikely the Ravens can make a run at a first-round upset in Cincinnati. Nonetheless, it looks like a lesser matchup for the Bengals, given the way Baltimore’s defense has been playing.

The Ravens famously let Tua Tagovailoa throw 6 touchdowns back in Week 2, with receivers consistently running free in the secondary. But they’ve got everybody on the same page now, operating like one of the very best defenses in the league.

Baltimore’s defense has allowed only 12 touchdowns in its last 10 games. That’s 5 fewer than any other defense in the postseason At very times this year, people have talked up the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys and Bills, but the Ravens defensively are playing better than all of them right now.

DEFENSE, TOUCHDOWNS (last 10 G)
TeamRunPassTotal
Baltimore3912
NY Jets6713
New Orleans7714
• San Francisco41317
Pittsburgh31619
Washington71219
Atlanta81321
Cleveland91221
• LA Chargers101121
New England31821
• Buffalo61622
• Cincinnati101222
LA Rams81422
Detroit91423
• Jacksonville71623
• Kansas City71623
• Miami71623
• Philadelphia91423
• Seattle111223
Tennessee81523
• Dallas71724
Las Vegas141024
• Minnesota101424
Denver81725
Houston151025
• NY Giants121426
Tampa Bay81826
Carolina101727
Green Bay111627
Indianapolis141731
Arizona151732
Chicago211738

The Ravens are particularly good against the run. They’ve allowed an average of only 83 rushing yards in their last 10 games, and with only 3 rushing touchdowns. Using standard fantasy scoring, that works out the 2nd-best run defense numbers in the league. I wouldn’t think Joe Mixon (pictured) will be a big factor in the first round.

RUN DEFENSE (last 10 G)
TeamAttYardsAvgTDF Pts/G
• San Francisco2096843.349.2
Baltimore2428303.4310.1
New England2458363.4310.2
Tennessee2406832.8811.6
Pittsburgh2391,0064.2311.9
• Miami2491,0284.1714.5
Washington2591,0984.2715.2
Denver2701,0764.0815.6
• Buffalo2571,2164.7615.8
• Cincinnati2549803.91015.8
• Jacksonville2811,1794.2716.0
• Kansas City2641,1794.5716.0
NY Jets3011,3314.4616.9
LA Rams2821,2204.3817.0
Tampa Bay2711,2244.5817.0
New Orleans3041,3564.5717.8
• Dallas3081,3574.4717.8
• Philadelphia2901,2654.4918.1
Carolina2831,2394.41018.4
Cleveland2851,3504.7918.9
• Minnesota2831,3404.71019.4
Detroit2661,4075.3919.5
Atlanta3371,5124.5819.9
Green Bay2751,3955.11120.6
Indianapolis2991,2454.21420.9
• LA Chargers2881,5155.31021.2
• NY Giants2931,4404.91221.6
• Seattle3131,5064.81121.7
Las Vegas2761,3274.81421.7
Arizona2801,3084.71522.1
Houston3391,5924.71524.9
Chicago3211,6265.12128.9

They’ve also been good against the pass. In their last 10 games, they’ve allowed an average of 212 passing yards per game, and with only 9 TD passes. All of the other 13 teams in the postseason have allowed more touchdown passes in their last 10 games.

Joe Burrow is a difference-maker quarterback; I think he’s a Mahomes-Allen kind of guy. But it doesn’t look likely that he’ll put up 300 yards and 3 TDs against this defense. If you’re in a league that allows players to be used only once, better to save Burrow for a future round.

PASS DEFENSE (last 10 G)
TeamPctYds/GTDIntF Pts/G
New Orleans58.0%161.37620.3
NY Jets63.1%175.47421.7
Washington60.6%172.912724.5
• LA Chargers57.0%186.611725.3
• Seattle60.4%184.912925.7
Atlanta61.7%179.613425.8
Cleveland60.9%186.312925.8
• Philadelphia67.2%177.114726.1
Houston67.4%203.510926.4
Baltimore65.7%211.89626.6
• Kansas City64.0%181.716827.8
Pittsburgh61.8%185.1161228.1
Las Vegas66.5%232.210329.2
• NY Giants64.8%216.114530.0
• Cincinnati60.4%235.712830.8
Arizona71.3%210.517631.3
Green Bay63.6%216.7161531.3
• Dallas61.7%211.917931.4
• San Francisco65.1%236.2131431.4
Detroit58.7%231.4141031.5
• Buffalo62.9%220.116731.6
• Miami65.3%220.616431.7
Tampa Bay64.3%213.118432.1
LA Rams66.7%240.2141132.4
Indianapolis68.1%223.717732.6
Carolina67.0%225.117632.7
New England62.5%222.1181233.0
• Jacksonville64.4%238.816733.5
Denver65.9%236.2171133.8
• Minnesota64.2%258.614834.3
Chicago69.4%245.417634.7
Tennessee64.2%288.815737.9

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

—Ian Allan