I was impressed by Jaylen Warren last year. Just an undrafted rookie, but he played his way onto the roster, won a backup job, then performed well with his limited opportunities.

Warren, in fact, averaged over a yard more per carry than Najee Harris. That impressed me. Two backs running behind the same line, and the backup got the better of the starter. It’s not an entirely level playing field, of course, with Warren perhaps getting more of his carries on draws in expected passing situations. But impressive.

And I saw another back nearby doing the same thing. James Cook averaged 5.7 yards per attempt, while starter Devin Singletary was down at 4.6.

This doesn’t happen often. Only 23 times in the last 22 years, in fact, has a running back who was the 2nd-leading rushing on his team averaged more than a yard more per carry than the guy who led the team in rushing.

BACKUPS BEATING STARTERS BY A YARD PER CARRY
YearPlayerAttYdsAvgTD
2001Travis Minor, Mia.592814.82
2003Lee Suggs, Cle.562895.22
2003Onterrio Smith, Min.1075795.45
2004Mewelde Moore, Min.653795.80
2004Steven Jackson, St.L.1346735.04
2005Ryan Moats, Phil.552785.13
2006Jerious Norwood, Atl.996336.42
2007Pierre Thomas, N.O.522524.91
2008Tashard Choice, Dall.924725.12
2009Arian Foster, Hou.542574.83
2011Evan Royster, Was.563285.90
2011Stevan Ridley, N.E.874415.11
2013Andre Ellington, Ariz.1186525.53
2013Mike James, T.B.602954.90
2014Jerick McKinnon, Min.1135384.80
2014Kerwynn Williams, Ariz.532464.60
2015Karlos Williams, Buff.935175.67
2016DeAndre Washington, Oak.874675.42
2016Jalen Richard, Oak.834915.91
2017Aaron Jones, G.B.814485.54
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.1207286.18
2022James Cook, Buff.895075.72
2022Jaylen Warren, Pitt.773794.91

It got me wondering about these guys. Specifically, how many of them continued to thrive, developing into larger contributors the next season? And similarly, how many of them just fizzled away?

If we take those same 21 guys and look at how they performed the next season, I see six that moved up and posted top-20 numbers, and another three who at least made the top 30. I have all of those backs tagged with black dots.

That leaves 12 of 21, of course, who didn’t make a big step up. And thumbing through those names, I don’t see many who went on to make much of an impact in their careers. Jerick McKinnon (who’s battled some injuries) would be an exception. And I see Mike James, who didn’t have much speed but had a stretch late one season where he was running hard and playing well.

On this version of the names, I’m showing total production rather than yards per carry, since that’s what us fantasy guys are most interested in.

GOOD YARDS PER ATT AVERAGES (the next year)
YearPlayerRunRecTotalTDPPRRk
2002Travis Minor, Mia.1800180230.091
2004• Onterrio Smith, Min.5443949384155.830
2004Lee Suggs, Cle.7441789223130.234
2005• Steven Jackson, St.L.1046320136610239.69
2005• Mewelde Moore, Min.66233910014161.126
2006Ryan Moats, Phil.6906906.9129
2007Jerious Norwood, Atl.6132778901123.042
2008• Pierre Thomas, N.O.62528490912193.919
2009Tashard Choice, Dall.349132481383.153
2010• Arian Foster, Hou.1616604222018396.01
2012• Stevan Ridley, N.E.126351131412209.415
2012Evan Royster, Was.88109197246.774
2014• Andre Ellington, Ariz.66039510555181.519
2014Mike James, T.B.37-53204.2145
2015Jerick McKinnon, Min.271173444383.458
2015Kerwynn Williams, Ariz.14216158123.8107
2016Karlos Williams, Buff.0000.0--
2017Jalen Richard, Oak.275256531292.153
2017DeAndre Washington, Oak.153197350387.059
2018• Alvin Kamara, N.O.883709159218354.24
2018• Aaron Jones, G.B.7282069349173.424
2023James Cook, Buff.??????
2023Jaylen Warren, Pitt.??????

I don’t know that either of these charts changes my opinions on either Cook or Warren. To me, I think Warren looks like a good insurance policy back. I think Harris will get hurt at some point, and Warren should be effective when filling in. Cook will be slotted higher on my board, with him probably getting on the field more often in a tandem with Damien Harris. Harris should be the hammer there, with Cook coming in to pop some longer runs.

—Ian Allan