Fantasy Index

Around the NFL

Alexander Mattison

Are Vikings ready to go cheaper at running back?

It’s been a rough offseason for running backs. Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette were released. And there have been various reports that Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry will be asked to take pay cuts.

Kareem Hunt isn’t generating any interest. Austin Ekeler wants a new contract, and the Chargers told him that won’t be happening. And guys like Rashaad Penny and Damien Harris signed deals for not much more than the league minimum. It’s been pretty brutal.

In the specific case of Dalvin Cook, I will be interested to see how it plays out. On the one hand, he’s seemingly not worth what he’s scheduled to be paid. He’s got a base salary of $10.4 million, with a cap number of $14.1 million. But at the same time, the Vikings signed Alexander Mattison to a two-year deal worth $7 million, with over 90 percent of that money guaranteed.

The Mattison contract indicates that they believe he’s ready to be a starter, but I’m skeptical. I haven’t seen him do anything that suggests he’s anything more than an average backup.

Mattison has gotten to step into those starter shoes five times (all in the 2020-21 seasons). While he averaged 90 rushing and 42 receiving yards in those games, which are impressive enough numbers, three of those games came against really suspect Detroit defenses. For the bulk of his career, he’s looked like a run-of-the-mill backup. He’s no Cook.

In each of the last three years, Mattison has averaged over a half yard less per carry than Cook. He’s just not that kind of player. (Heading into this offseason, I was thinking the Vikings would let Mattison walk, promoting youngster Ty Chandler into the backup spot.)

Over the last two years, 46 running backs have carried the ball at least 200 yards. Of that group, Mattison ranks next-to-last in yards per carry, down at 3.7 per attempt. If the Vikings wind up elevating him into their starting job, I think they’ll regret it.

RUSHING, YARDS PER CARRY (last 2 years)
PlayerAttYardsAvgTD
Tony Pollard, Dall.3231,7265.3411
Nick Chubb, Cle.5302,7845.2520
Travis Etienne, Jac.2201,1255.115
Miles Sanders, Phil.3962,0235.1111
Jonathan Taylor, Ind.5242,6725.1022
Khalil Herbert, Chi.2321,1645.026
Aaron Jones, G.B.3841,9205.006
Tyler Allgeier, Atl.2101,0354.933
Elijah Mitchell, S.F.2521,2424.937
Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.3431,6464.8010
D'Andre Swift, Det.2501,1594.6410
Devin Singletary, Buff.3651,6894.6312
Christian McCaffrey, Car.-S.F.3431,5814.619
Kenneth Walker, Sea.2281,0504.619
Dalvin Cook, Min.5132,3324.5514
Josh Jacobs, L.V.5572,5254.5321
Jeff Wilson, S.F.-Mia.2551,1544.537
Damien Harris, N.E.3081,3914.5218
Austin Ekeler, LAC4101,8264.4525
Darrell Henderson, LAR2199714.438
Javonte Williams, Den.2501,1074.434
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl.2971,3134.4214
D'Onta Foreman, Car.3361,4804.408
Derrick Henry, Ten.5682,4754.3623
James Robinson, Jac.-NYJ2741,1924.3511
Latavius Murray, Bal.-N.O.-Den.2901,2614.3512
Dameon Pierce, Hou.2209394.274
Kareem Hunt, Cle.2018544.258
Melvin Gordon, Den.2931,2364.2210
AJ Dillon, G.B.3731,5734.2212
Saquon Barkley, NYG4571,9054.1712
Chuba Hubbard, Car.2671,0784.047
Joe Mixon, Cin.5022,0194.0220
Jamaal Williams, Det.4151,6674.0220
Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.4681,8784.0122
Leonard Fournette, T.B.3691,4804.0111
Michael Carter, NYJ2611,0413.997
James Conner, Ari.3851,5343.9822
Sony Michel, both LAs2449513.904
Antonio Gibson, Was.4071,5833.8910
Brian Robinson, Was.2057973.892
Alvin Kamara, N.O.4631,7953.886
David Montgomery, Chi.4261,6503.8712
Najee Harris, Pitt.5792,2343.8614
Alexander Mattison, Min.2087743.728
Mark Ingram, Hou.-N.O.2227873.553

—Ian Allan

15 Reader Comments:

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-04-11T19:46:37Z
Disclaimer: I'll keep this one short and sweet.
I had thought the pull date for Cook was about due. But I saw recently a replay of a Vikings game where Cook found a lane and got a chance to really open it up. He didn't look like he's lost any speed.

Matt Morse

Glennallen, AK
2023-04-11T21:20:54Z
Feel bad for Josh Jacobs. He took a gamble on having a good season last year, put up career numbers and led the league. And now the bottom has dropped out of the market.

Todd Weigel

Milwaukee, WI
2023-04-11T22:01:20Z
I wonder if at some point, talented high school RB prospects will see the NFL market and decide to give another position a shot. Maybe it’s already happening. They tend to play two-way anyway, so maybe they get highly recruited, get to college, and tell the coach “Hey, can I try defensive back?”

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-04-11T22:18:06Z
If we go back to 2018, LeVeon Bell declined to sign a franchise tag of $14.5 million. Since that time, the salary cap has gone up by $48 million, while the running back franchise tag amount has decreased by $4 million.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-04-11T22:20:42Z
To Todd's point, if we go back in time and consider elite uber-athletes like Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Herschel Walker, Bo Jackson, Earl Campbell, O.J. Simpson, etc., I don't think they'd be excited about being modestly paid parts at the NFL level. They would logically consider other positions and other sports.

Josh Obusek

Pittsburgh, PA
2023-04-11T23:20:03Z
Then there is Barnwell's analysis of taking B. Robinson in the first round of the NFL draft. Just not worth it in terms of the value of guys (QB, LT, CB, Edge) at other positions on rookie contracts. Picture being in Robinson's shoes, not even being sure you'll be a first round pick... Put me in a GM's shoes and no way would I take him first. Still hate that the Steelers took Najee Harris in the first round two years ago.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-04-12T00:33:06Z
I'd have a hard time jumping ownership's case for drafting a position of need, and probably the best of the backs coming out that year. If the Steelers didn't take him, someone else would. And there's no guarantee that another position player would've worked out any better. It's the owners as a group who crafted this environment that depresses running backs' salaries.

David Weissmiller

Mount Carroll, IL
2023-04-12T00:46:36Z
LeVeon thought he could get much higher.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-04-12T01:11:16Z
The franchise tag amount for running backs right now is about $10 million. That's the lowest of the 22 starters. About $1 million behind tight ends. Safeties at $14.4, QBs at about $32, and everything else in the $18-$20 range. So you would have to feel really good about a running back to use a top-20 pick on one.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-04-12T02:17:11Z
Oh, I had completely forgotten about the slots and their amounts. That does change things. You'll be awfully talent-thin if you don't leave room to attract FAs from the higher-priced positions. Man, I wouldn't want to be a GM. My blood would never run that cold. Thanks for the cold water, it's given me a whole new perspective.

Jeff Zwiers

Bellingham, WA
2023-04-12T03:25:19Z
So unfair for RB's! Not only are their careers shorter than most other positions but they also get paid less. Why hasn't the players-union (or whoever has persuasion over this) addressed this?

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-04-12T03:39:54Z
The problem with the labor agreement is that the incoming players aren't represented. Deal was crafted by the owners and the veteran players. The veteran players don't care about the rookies are in college coming in. They agreed to a deal with the owners, putting slotted values on the draft picks. That really screws the running backs, with few of them having careers that extend much beyond those four years.

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA
2023-04-12T18:00:32Z
Todd is correct about younger HS RB's - most all of the better athletes play OLB or Safety on Defense as well. The best athletes keep their options open, when they're recruited to a college program, and can switch from RB to Defense as late as their junior or senior years.

Steven Watson

Onaway, MI
2023-04-14T15:55:31Z
It seems also that GMs would rather spend their money on OL and let some undrafted free agent run the ball behind them. But that’s an expense on five guys vs. just one RB. Of course OL serves a dual purpose as pass blockers but we’ve all seen what a single player (Saquon’s rookie year?) can do for a bad team’s running game.

David Lutz

Lancaster, MA
2023-04-14T17:45:10Z
Emmit, Curtis"my favorite"martin, tiki, jamal anderson, lewis, seems its ok for rb to be more fragile yet unreliable ...makes yet again, huge case for "zero rb" dont it?!
Sign in to add a comment

Fantasy Index