Around the NFL

July 11, 2023

Darnell Mooney

How much might passing game improve?

Darnell Mooney's second season was cut short by an ankle injury, but he says he'll be ready to roll for training camp. The primary reservations aren't about Mooney's health, though, but the offense around him.

For one thing, the Bears acquired DJ Moore, and he seems a lot more likely to be the team's top wideout. But the concern for both Mooney and Moore is the passing offense in general. It was terrible a year ago -- last in the league, at just 2,598 yards, so 153 per game -- and it will need to improve by quite a bit to give the team a single viable wide receiver, let alone two.

Some improvement from Justin Fields as a passer is reasonable, but dramatic improvement? The history of lesser passing offenses one year later isn't encouraging.

I looked at the last 10 years of lesser passing offenses; teams that ranked in the bottom 5 in passing yards from 2012 to the present. Different teams, different quarterbacks (and a lot of those teams changed quarterbacks, of course), but I wanted to see what kind of improvement might be anticipated from the worst passing offenses from last season, like 32nd-ranked Chicago.

Of those previous 50, about a third (16) came back and were also bottom-5 passing offenses one year later. And slightly over half (27) ranked in the bottom 10 that next season.

Only five made it up into the top 10 in passing, with 14 more at least finishing in the top 20. That, I think, would probably be Chicago's ceiling -- and probably beyond Fields.

I think if you're invested in the Bears' passing game, Mooney or Moore or perhaps Cole Kmet, you're hoping for enough improvement from Fields that the Bears sneak out of the bottom 10 in passing. Almost half of those previous bottom-5 passing offenses were able to do it, so it's possible. But above-average? Odds are against it.

Bottom-5 passing offenses from 2012 to present, followed by their production (yards, TDs, rank) a year later, are presented below. Table is sorted by passing game ranking in that next season.

BOTTOM-5 PASSING GAMES, ONE YEAR LATER (2012-)
Year	Team	Yds	TD	Rk	Yds(Nx)	TD(Nx)	Rk(Nx)
2017	Indianapolis	3226	13	30	4595	39	7
2012	Chicago	3298	21	28	4450	32	7
2021	Philadelphia	3585	20	29	4364	25	8
2016	San Francisco	3166	21	32	4235	15	8
2014	Jacksonville	3001	15	31	4428	35	10
2018	Miami	3309	26	28	4117	22	11
2016	LA Rams	3313	14	30	4023	28	11
2020	Baltimore	2919	27	32	4267	21	13
2020	New England	3124	12	30	4098	24	14
2019	Indianapolis	3314	22	30	4186	24	14
2014	NY Jets	2946	16	32	4170	33	15
2021	New Orleans	3437	29	32	3969	24	16
2020	NY Jets	3115	16	31	3959	20	17
2019	Pittsburgh	3214	18	31	4129	35	17
2017	Carolina	3319	22	28	4071	28	17
2015	Minnesota	3246	14	31	4119	20	17
2013	Buffalo	3373	16	28	3614	23	18
2021	Indianapolis	3588	27	28	3854	17	20
2020	Denver	3673	21	28	3856	20	20
2018	Tennessee	3255	16	30	3956	29	21
2016	Houston	3418	15	29	3644	28	21
2017	Chicago	3085	13	32	3747	28	22
2015	Kansas City	3493	20	30	3914	19	22
2018	Arizona	2884	15	32	3797	20	23
2017	Baltimore	3235	20	29	3708	18	23
2013	St. Louis	3360	22	29	3400	20	23
2012	Minnesota	2935	18	32	3645	18	23
2019	Washington	3205	18	32	3796	16	24
2016	NY Jets	3645	16	28	3501	19	24
2013	Tampa Bay	3181	22	32	3297	21	25
2012	Kansas City	2937	8	31	3561	24	25
2018	Buffalo	3082	13	31	3476	21	26
2012	Seattle	3234	27	29	3508	27	26
2021	NY Giants	3463	15	31	3431	17	27
2021	Carolina	3573	14	30	3246	16	28
2019	Denver	3401	16	28	3673	21	28
2014	San Francisco	3063	20	30	3646	16	28
2015	St. Louis	2931	11	32	3313	14	30
2014	Kansas City	3182	18	29	3493	20	30
2013	San Francisco	3210	21	31	3063	20	30
2012	NY Jets	3178	14	30	3270	13	30
2020	NY Giants	3336	12	29	3463	15	31
2017	Buffalo	3086	16	31	3082	13	31
2016	Buffalo	3250	17	31	3086	16	31
2015	Buffalo	3600	23	29	3250	17	31
2014	Minnesota	3244	17	28	3246	14	31
2019	Baltimore	3350	37	29	2919	27	32
2018	Washington	3287	16	29	3205	18	32
2015	San Francisco	3646	16	28	3166	21	32
2013	NY Jets	3270	13	30	2946	16	32
2022	Carolina	3246	16	28	??	??	??
2022	Tennessee	3227	16	29	??	??	??
2022	Baltimore	3202	19	30	??	??	??
2022	Atlanta	2927	17	31	??	??	??
2022	Chicago	2598	19	32	??	??	??

--Andy Richardson

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