The season is days away, and I notice that the opener includes a couple of players of particular importance to me. Isiah Pacheco and David Montgomery are the two running backs that I feel are the most undervalued in fantasy drafts. Those guys are key to my championship hopes.
By the end of that first game – before 30 NFL teams have even taken a snap – we’ll have an idea of whether the 2023 season is going to be a good one for Fantasy Index readers. If Pacheco and Montgomery stink, we’ll see plenty of comments on the website on Friday, with the potential for a tough year. If they’re as good as I’m expecting, it will be a year that Index-influenced teams, as Jameis Winston might say, will be “eating a lot of Ws”.
Saturday I posted the warning article on James Conner. I’m leery of backs from bad teams. With Pacheco, we have kind of the opposite. Talent-wise, he’s arguably similar to Conner – an ordinary kind of back – but he’s landed the plum gig of starting for the league’s best team.
With Conner, we looked at teams that won 3 or fewer games. With Pacheco, it’s reasonable to look instead at teams that won 13-plus games, then consider the best running backs on those rosters.
In the 32-team era, I see 53 teams that won 13-plus games. They include 25 running backs who finished with top-10 numbers (using PPR scoring), and another 13 who finished with top-20 numbers.
That’s 72 percent of those teams finishing with a running back who put up top-20 numbers. (Honestly, that’s a little lower than I was expecting – I thought there would be a few more in each category.)
In the chart below, I’ve put the top-10 backs in bold. For the other top-20 guys, they’re tagged with black dots.
Barring some kind of injury, I’m expecting Pacheco to challenge for top-15 numbers at his position.
| RUNNING BACKS ON TEAMS WINNING 13-PLUS GAMES | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | W-L | Run | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 13-3 | 1,420 | 690 | 27 | 447.0 | 1 |
| 2003 | Kevin Faulk, N.E. | 14-2 | 638 | 440 | 0 | 155.8 | 29 |
| 2004 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 13-3 | 812 | 703 | 9 | 278.5 | 7 |
| 2004 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 14-2 | 1,635 | 103 | 13 | 268.8 | 8 |
| 2004 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 15-1 | 941 | 46 | 13 | 187.2 | 22 |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 13-3 | 1,880 | 78 | 28 | 378.8 | 1 |
| 2005 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 14-2 | 1,506 | 337 | 14 | 312.3 | 5 |
| 2005 | • Mike Anderson, Den. | 13-3 | 1,014 | 212 | 13 | 218.6 | 12 |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 14-2 | 1,815 | 508 | 31 | 483.3 | 1 |
| 2006 | • Thomas Jones, Chi. | 13-3 | 1,210 | 154 | 6 | 208.2 | 18 |
| 2006 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 13-3 | 1,132 | 115 | 9 | 196.7 | 21 |
| 2007 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 13-3 | 1,072 | 364 | 15 | 276.6 | 4 |
| 2007 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 13-3 | 975 | 282 | 12 | 241.7 | 8 |
| 2007 | • Ryan Grant, G.B. | 13-3 | 956 | 145 | 8 | 188.1 | 17 |
| 2007 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 16-0 | 835 | 116 | 6 | 137.1 | 33 |
| 2008 | • Chris Johnson, Ten. | 13-3 | 1,228 | 260 | 10 | 251.8 | 11 |
| 2009 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 14-2 | 828 | 336 | 13 | 250.5 | 7 |
| 2009 | • Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 13-3 | 793 | 302 | 8 | 196.5 | 19 |
| 2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 13-3 | 730 | 154 | 12 | 180.4 | 24 |
| 2010 | • Michael Turner, Atl. | 13-3 | 1,371 | 85 | 12 | 229.6 | 14 |
| 2010 | • BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E. | 14-2 | 1,008 | 85 | 13 | 199.3 | 19 |
| 2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 13-3 | 603 | 710 | 10 | 277.3 | 5 |
| 2011 | • Frank Gore, S.F. | 13-3 | 1,211 | 114 | 8 | 197.5 | 17 |
| 2011 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E. | 13-3 | 667 | 159 | 11 | 157.6 | 28 |
| 2011 | Ryan Grant, G.B. | 15-1 | 559 | 268 | 3 | 119.7 | 37 |
| 2012 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 13-3 | 800 | 128 | 11 | 177.8 | 22 |
| 2012 | Willis McGahee, Den. | 13-3 | 731 | 221 | 4 | 147.2 | 28 |
| 2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 13-3 | 1,038 | 548 | 13 | 296.6 | 4 |
| 2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 13-3 | 1,257 | 316 | 14 | 277.3 | 5 |
| 2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 13-3 | 581 | 457 | 13 | 217.8 | 7 |
| 2015 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 15-1 | 989 | 99 | 7 | 166.8 | 23 |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 13-3 | 1,631 | 363 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
| 2016 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 14-2 | 1,161 | 38 | 18 | 234.9 | 9 |
| 2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 13-3 | 1,291 | 655 | 11 | 345.6 | 2 |
| 2017 | • Dion Lewis, N.E. | 13-3 | 896 | 214 | 10 | 203.0 | 13 |
| 2017 | • Jerick McKinnon, Min. | 13-3 | 570 | 421 | 5 | 182.1 | 17 |
| 2017 | LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 13-3 | 766 | 50 | 3 | 109.6 | 45 |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 13-3 | 1,251 | 580 | 21 | 374.1 | 3 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 13-3 | 883 | 709 | 18 | 354.2 | 4 |
| 2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 13-3 | 1,084 | 474 | 19 | 318.8 | 2 |
| 2019 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 13-3 | 797 | 533 | 6 | 250.7 | 9 |
| 2019 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 14-2 | 1,018 | 247 | 15 | 246.5 | 10 |
| 2019 | Raheem Mostert, S.F. | 13-3 | 772 | 180 | 10 | 169.2 | 26 |
| 2020 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 13-3 | 1,104 | 355 | 11 | 258.9 | 5 |
| 2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 14-2 | 803 | 297 | 5 | 176.0 | 22 |
| 2020 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 13-3 | 687 | 269 | 2 | 145.6 | 32 |
| 2021 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 13-4 | 812 | 454 | 10 | 255.6 | 6 |
| 2021 | • Aaron Jones, G.B. | 13-4 | 799 | 391 | 10 | 231.0 | 11 |
| 2022 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 13-4 | 1,139 | 741 | 13 | 356.7 | 2 |
| 2022 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 13-4 | 1,173 | 295 | 10 | 245.8 | 10 |
| 2022 | • Miles Sanders, Phil. | 14-3 | 1,269 | 78 | 11 | 220.7 | 15 |
| 2022 | • Jerick McKinnon, K.C. | 14-3 | 291 | 512 | 10 | 198.3 | 20 |
| 2022 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 13-3 | 819 | 280 | 6 | 183.9 | 23 |
—Ian Allan
31 Reader Comments:
Robert McKinlay
Ian Allan
Darren Castillo
Mike Bayless
Mike Bayless
James Costello
marc price
Monte McDonald
I’ve got to drop 1 of these 2 rbs today- Clyde EH ( I do have J McKinnon) or Cordarrelle Patterson in a Dynasty PPR league! I see they are both ranked similarly! Any thoughts?
Ian Allan
John Ruppe
Jose Montana
Jeff Zwiers
Steven Chaitman
Ben Hogevoll
Mike Conway
Paul Desimone
Andy Richardson
They’re Ian’s rankings; the one he likes more is the guy ranked higher. The story is talking about Montgomery rather than say Walker because Montgomery is a better value (being selected considerably later).
Paul Desimone
Paul Desimone
Yahoo has Shaq Leonard ranked as #7 LB, and the Index has Leonard at #26. I had Leonard last season (disastrous) but wanted to grab him again. Pretty sure someone's gonna jump on that #7. Is the biggest reason for #26 because of remaining health concerns? Thanks for your advice as always.
Russell Pitts
Drew Paterson
Andy Richardson
Robert McKinlay
As last pick in ppr do you like over full season Nacua or Mclaughlin?
Andy Richardson
Paul Desimone
Rob D.
I just want to point out that you should watch the video of the Lions front office , on Draft Day, the moment they got Gibbs. Good Morning Football ( NFLN) was showing this clip over and over on friday. why? just go watch the exuberance of the Lions GM how he was hollering and woo-hooing like a kid on Christmas Morning. They got their guy, they're going to use their guy till his legs fall off. he's the star and Monty is nothing more than the goal line back. Hard to go against Ian here, he's almost ALWAYS dead right with RB predictions. but Monty and Pacheco will both fall flat on their faces this year imo. we're kicking CEH to the curb way too prematurely. On another note, not sure Ian's take on Pollard, but I'd consider giving D. Vaughn a look-in here.Pollard seems like the hype guy buoyed by Dallas Nation fanfare. I'm not sure it pays off, I'd be shocked if he finishes anywhere near where people are predicting.
Andy Richardson
Luke Wilson
Surprised at the Davis Montgomery reticence in here! Montgomery and Gibbs aren’t the same players as Jamaal Williams and Gibbs… but the usages, they sure might be. Week 1 with the Chiefs going to be missing All-Pro menace Chris Jones upfront, I am extremely confident the Lions are going to bully the Chiefs inside with Frank Ragnow and a healthy Halapoulivaati Vaitai and use Montgomery to win the time of possession battle and short Mahomes a possession or two. Granted, I have Montgomery on like half my teams at this point - but still!
Michael Miller
My wr are kinda crap (dj moore, christian kirk and who cares) and my QB is Mahomes, with Dallas as my defense, KOO as my kicker amd Kmet as my te.
riding that Pacheco, monty rb2 and flex into a championship
Jay Harding
Appreciate all your hard work!
Is it it Thursday yet?
Jay
Ernest Moody