The season is days away, and I notice that the opener includes a couple of players of particular importance to me. Isiah Pacheco and David Montgomery are the two running backs that I feel are the most undervalued in fantasy drafts. Those guys are key to my championship hopes.
By the end of that first game – before 30 NFL teams have even taken a snap – we’ll have an idea of whether the 2023 season is going to be a good one for Fantasy Index readers. If Pacheco and Montgomery stink, we’ll see plenty of comments on the website on Friday, with the potential for a tough year. If they’re as good as I’m expecting, it will be a year that Index-influenced teams, as Jameis Winston might say, will be “eating a lot of Ws”.
Saturday I posted the warning article on James Conner. I’m leery of backs from bad teams. With Pacheco, we have kind of the opposite. Talent-wise, he’s arguably similar to Conner – an ordinary kind of back – but he’s landed the plum gig of starting for the league’s best team.
With Conner, we looked at teams that won 3 or fewer games. With Pacheco, it’s reasonable to look instead at teams that won 13-plus games, then consider the best running backs on those rosters.
In the 32-team era, I see 53 teams that won 13-plus games. They include 25 running backs who finished with top-10 numbers (using PPR scoring), and another 13 who finished with top-20 numbers.
That’s 72 percent of those teams finishing with a running back who put up top-20 numbers. (Honestly, that’s a little lower than I was expecting – I thought there would be a few more in each category.)
In the chart below, I’ve put the top-10 backs in bold. For the other top-20 guys, they’re tagged with black dots.
Barring some kind of injury, I’m expecting Pacheco to challenge for top-15 numbers at his position.
RUNNING BACKS ON TEAMS WINNING 13-PLUS GAMES | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | W-L | Run | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 13-3 | 1,420 | 690 | 27 | 447.0 | 1 |
2003 | Kevin Faulk, N.E. | 14-2 | 638 | 440 | 0 | 155.8 | 29 |
2004 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 13-3 | 812 | 703 | 9 | 278.5 | 7 |
2004 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 14-2 | 1,635 | 103 | 13 | 268.8 | 8 |
2004 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 15-1 | 941 | 46 | 13 | 187.2 | 22 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 13-3 | 1,880 | 78 | 28 | 378.8 | 1 |
2005 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 14-2 | 1,506 | 337 | 14 | 312.3 | 5 |
2005 | • Mike Anderson, Den. | 13-3 | 1,014 | 212 | 13 | 218.6 | 12 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 14-2 | 1,815 | 508 | 31 | 483.3 | 1 |
2006 | • Thomas Jones, Chi. | 13-3 | 1,210 | 154 | 6 | 208.2 | 18 |
2006 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 13-3 | 1,132 | 115 | 9 | 196.7 | 21 |
2007 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 13-3 | 1,072 | 364 | 15 | 276.6 | 4 |
2007 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 13-3 | 975 | 282 | 12 | 241.7 | 8 |
2007 | • Ryan Grant, G.B. | 13-3 | 956 | 145 | 8 | 188.1 | 17 |
2007 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 16-0 | 835 | 116 | 6 | 137.1 | 33 |
2008 | • Chris Johnson, Ten. | 13-3 | 1,228 | 260 | 10 | 251.8 | 11 |
2009 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 14-2 | 828 | 336 | 13 | 250.5 | 7 |
2009 | • Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 13-3 | 793 | 302 | 8 | 196.5 | 19 |
2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 13-3 | 730 | 154 | 12 | 180.4 | 24 |
2010 | • Michael Turner, Atl. | 13-3 | 1,371 | 85 | 12 | 229.6 | 14 |
2010 | • BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E. | 14-2 | 1,008 | 85 | 13 | 199.3 | 19 |
2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 13-3 | 603 | 710 | 10 | 277.3 | 5 |
2011 | • Frank Gore, S.F. | 13-3 | 1,211 | 114 | 8 | 197.5 | 17 |
2011 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E. | 13-3 | 667 | 159 | 11 | 157.6 | 28 |
2011 | Ryan Grant, G.B. | 15-1 | 559 | 268 | 3 | 119.7 | 37 |
2012 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 13-3 | 800 | 128 | 11 | 177.8 | 22 |
2012 | Willis McGahee, Den. | 13-3 | 731 | 221 | 4 | 147.2 | 28 |
2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 13-3 | 1,038 | 548 | 13 | 296.6 | 4 |
2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 13-3 | 1,257 | 316 | 14 | 277.3 | 5 |
2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 13-3 | 581 | 457 | 13 | 217.8 | 7 |
2015 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 15-1 | 989 | 99 | 7 | 166.8 | 23 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 13-3 | 1,631 | 363 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
2016 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 14-2 | 1,161 | 38 | 18 | 234.9 | 9 |
2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 13-3 | 1,291 | 655 | 11 | 345.6 | 2 |
2017 | • Dion Lewis, N.E. | 13-3 | 896 | 214 | 10 | 203.0 | 13 |
2017 | • Jerick McKinnon, Min. | 13-3 | 570 | 421 | 5 | 182.1 | 17 |
2017 | LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 13-3 | 766 | 50 | 3 | 109.6 | 45 |
2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 13-3 | 1,251 | 580 | 21 | 374.1 | 3 |
2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 13-3 | 883 | 709 | 18 | 354.2 | 4 |
2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 13-3 | 1,084 | 474 | 19 | 318.8 | 2 |
2019 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 13-3 | 797 | 533 | 6 | 250.7 | 9 |
2019 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 14-2 | 1,018 | 247 | 15 | 246.5 | 10 |
2019 | Raheem Mostert, S.F. | 13-3 | 772 | 180 | 10 | 169.2 | 26 |
2020 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 13-3 | 1,104 | 355 | 11 | 258.9 | 5 |
2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 14-2 | 803 | 297 | 5 | 176.0 | 22 |
2020 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 13-3 | 687 | 269 | 2 | 145.6 | 32 |
2021 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 13-4 | 812 | 454 | 10 | 255.6 | 6 |
2021 | • Aaron Jones, G.B. | 13-4 | 799 | 391 | 10 | 231.0 | 11 |
2022 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 13-4 | 1,139 | 741 | 13 | 356.7 | 2 |
2022 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 13-4 | 1,173 | 295 | 10 | 245.8 | 10 |
2022 | • Miles Sanders, Phil. | 14-3 | 1,269 | 78 | 11 | 220.7 | 15 |
2022 | • Jerick McKinnon, K.C. | 14-3 | 291 | 512 | 10 | 198.3 | 20 |
2022 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 13-3 | 819 | 280 | 6 | 183.9 | 23 |
—Ian Allan