Fantasy Index

Factoid

Isiah Pacheco

Will Pacheco ride KC's greatness to big numbers?

The season is days away, and I notice that the opener includes a couple of players of particular importance to me. Isiah Pacheco and David Montgomery are the two running backs that I feel are the most undervalued in fantasy drafts. Those guys are key to my championship hopes.

By the end of that first game – before 30 NFL teams have even taken a snap – we’ll have an idea of whether the 2023 season is going to be a good one for Fantasy Index readers. If Pacheco and Montgomery stink, we’ll see plenty of comments on the website on Friday, with the potential for a tough year. If they’re as good as I’m expecting, it will be a year that Index-influenced teams, as Jameis Winston might say, will be “eating a lot of Ws”.

Saturday I posted the warning article on James Conner. I’m leery of backs from bad teams. With Pacheco, we have kind of the opposite. Talent-wise, he’s arguably similar to Conner – an ordinary kind of back – but he’s landed the plum gig of starting for the league’s best team.

With Conner, we looked at teams that won 3 or fewer games. With Pacheco, it’s reasonable to look instead at teams that won 13-plus games, then consider the best running backs on those rosters.

In the 32-team era, I see 53 teams that won 13-plus games. They include 25 running backs who finished with top-10 numbers (using PPR scoring), and another 13 who finished with top-20 numbers.

That’s 72 percent of those teams finishing with a running back who put up top-20 numbers. (Honestly, that’s a little lower than I was expecting – I thought there would be a few more in each category.)

In the chart below, I’ve put the top-10 backs in bold. For the other top-20 guys, they’re tagged with black dots.

Barring some kind of injury, I’m expecting Pacheco to challenge for top-15 numbers at his position.

RUNNING BACKS ON TEAMS WINNING 13-PLUS GAMES
YearPlayerW-LRunRecTDPPRRk
2003Priest Holmes, K.C.13-31,42069027447.01
2003Kevin Faulk, N.E.14-26384400155.829
2004Brian Westbrook, Phil.13-38127039278.57
2004Corey Dillon, N.E.14-21,63510313268.88
2004Jerome Bettis, Pitt.15-19414613187.222
2005Shaun Alexander, Sea.13-31,8807828378.81
2005Edgerrin James, Ind.14-21,50633714312.35
2005• Mike Anderson, Den.13-31,01421213218.612
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.14-21,81550831483.31
2006• Thomas Jones, Chi.13-31,2101546208.218
2006Jamal Lewis, Balt.13-31,1321159196.721
2007Joseph Addai, Ind.13-31,07236415276.64
2007Marion Barber, Dall.13-397528212241.78
2007• Ryan Grant, G.B.13-39561458188.117
2007Laurence Maroney, N.E.16-08351166137.133
2008• Chris Johnson, Ten.13-31,22826010251.811
2009Joseph Addai, Ind.14-282833613250.57
2009• Pierre Thomas, N.O.13-37933028196.519
2009LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.13-373015412180.424
2010• Michael Turner, Atl.13-31,3718512229.614
2010• BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E.14-21,0088513199.319
2011Darren Sproles, N.O.13-360371010277.35
2011• Frank Gore, S.F.13-31,2111148197.517
2011BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E.13-366715911157.628
2011Ryan Grant, G.B.15-15592683119.737
2012Michael Turner, Atl.13-380012811177.822
2012Willis McGahee, Den.13-37312214147.228
2013Knowshon Moreno, Den.13-31,03854813296.64
2013Marshawn Lynch, Sea.13-31,25731614277.35
2015David Johnson, Ariz.13-358145713217.87
2015Jonathan Stewart, Car.15-1989997166.823
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.13-31,63136316327.42
2016LeGarrette Blount, N.E.14-21,1613818234.99
2017LeVeon Bell, Pitt.13-31,29165511345.62
2017• Dion Lewis, N.E.13-389621410203.013
2017• Jerick McKinnon, Min.13-35704215182.117
2017LeGarrette Blount, Phil.13-3766503109.645
2018Todd Gurley, LAR13-31,25158021374.13
2018Alvin Kamara, N.O.13-388370918354.24
2019Aaron Jones, G.B.13-31,08447419318.82
2019Alvin Kamara, N.O.13-37975336250.79
2019Mark Ingram, Balt.14-21,01824715246.510
2019Raheem Mostert, S.F.13-377218010169.226
2020Aaron Jones, G.B.13-31,10435511258.95
2020Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.14-28032975176.022
2020Devin Singletary, Buff.13-36872692145.632
2021Leonard Fournette, T.B.13-481245410255.66
2021• Aaron Jones, G.B.13-479939110231.011
2022Christian McCaffrey, S.F.13-41,13974113356.72
2022Dalvin Cook, Min.13-41,17329510245.810
2022• Miles Sanders, Phil.14-31,2697811220.715
2022• Jerick McKinnon, K.C.14-329151210198.320
2022Devin Singletary, Buff.13-38192806183.923

—Ian Allan

31 Reader Comments:

Robert McKinlay

Belews Creek, NC
2023-09-03T17:33:41Z
Interesting analysis. Stats are good predictors. I agree Pacheco should have good season. Montie too as Lions had really great 2nd half of 2022 season. Ian I grabbed Montgomery and McKinnon who you show was RB 20 last year. You view Gibbs and McKinnon even in PPR lower in rankings than Pacheco and Montgomery. So in lineup decisions you'd lineup Pacheco as RB 2 and Montgomery as RB 2 and Gibbs and McKinnon in flex. Is that how you see it. Thank you!

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-09-03T17:37:02Z
Most consider Gibbs to be much better than Montgomery. There was the talk about the Lions thinking about picking him with the 6th overall pick before trading down. We'll see. I like Montgomery more. And I've got the Fight Doctor higher than McKinnon.

Darren Castillo

Placentia, CA
2023-09-03T18:01:03Z
I drafted Montgomery in 2 of the 3 I'm in. Pacheco in 1. Last draft today. Hoping for more. If they don't produce. The waiver wire is where some leagues are won.

Mike Bayless

Little Rock, AR
2023-09-03T18:39:16Z
If Kupp is out do you like Pacheco more than Akers?

Mike Bayless

Little Rock, AR
2023-09-03T18:39:24Z
For week 1

James Costello

Portland, ME
2023-09-03T18:45:23Z
Not exactly the place to ask this but has there been any clarity regarding Tua's backup?

marc price

Kelowna, BC
2023-09-03T19:08:33Z
I took Montgomery and Pacheco so let’s hope you’re right.

Monte McDonald

Las Vegas, NV
2023-09-03T19:40:14Z
Ian,
I’ve got to drop 1 of these 2 rbs today- Clyde EH ( I do have J McKinnon) or Cordarrelle Patterson in a Dynasty PPR league! I see they are both ranked similarly! Any thoughts?

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-09-03T20:44:05Z
Don't have an answer on Miami backup QB. THose who have Pacheco should value CEH more than CPatt. Those who have Bijan should prefer CPatt. I'm just getting started on Week 1 stuff today.

John Ruppe

Fort Myers, FL
2023-09-03T20:50:08Z
Been with the magazine since 2001 and if Ian likes certain players it usually pays off to follow his lead. I have Pacheco and Montgomery in all 4 of my leagues along with Pickens and Doubs. My draft analysis for each team was finishing between 8 and 10. I love it! Every time I see that type of analysis at the end of my draft I usually do very well.

Jose Montana

Rosemead, CA
2023-09-03T21:08:05Z
Just to be perfectly clear, in the magazine, the Experts Draft and the Experts Auction are PPR scoring - are the Experts Polls also PPR?

Jeff Zwiers

Bellingham, WA
2023-09-03T22:35:05Z
Not sure why anyone would keep 32-year-old Patterson over 24-year-old CEH in a Dynasty League....

Steven Chaitman

Chicago, IL
2023-09-03T23:13:14Z
I think Pacheco has been ranked lower by others because of how KC committed to McKinnon at the goal line and in passing situations down the stretch of the regular season. But he majorly outplayed McKinnon in the playoffs including in the passing game, and we know Reid’s of coaching up players at the position. At his ADP it’s such a low-risk gamble to see if they’ll start using him more. As long as readers aren’t reaching for him too early they shouldn’t be angry at all.

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2023-09-03T23:14:29Z
I don't like Montgomery near as well as Ian and all his followers. The Lions didn't draft Gibbs to sit on the bench and they are not very good.They will spend way to much time trying to pass playing catch up..They should start out sharing the rock 50-50 then Gibbs should take over the lead role around week 5.Pacheco is on a Super Bowl team and should end up top 5 RB this year.

Mike Conway

Nanuet, NY
2023-09-03T23:40:50Z
Hi Ian ended up with Pacheco but also took Walker based on rankings over Montgomery. Are you higher on Montgomery?

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-09-04T00:11:40Z
Had a 5th-season dynasty draft on Friday night and a couple of longtime keeper drafts yesterday. Pacheco was in all 3 (surprised he was dropped in dynasty). Never got a shot at Pacheco, but Montgomery was let go by an owner who's loaded. Funny how you come to a juncture in a draft where you're reminded of a player who the Index is high on or down on. With Ian's endorsement in mind, I went ahead and grabbed Montgomery. His picture made him look like an older player but he's only 26, and anybody would look old after 4 seasons under the former regime. Finally, after realizing I'd missed the boat on TEs, I grabbed... Jake Ferguson. Counting on you, Mr. Allen. (Kidding)

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-09-04T00:18:35Z
Experts Poll is PPR yes.

They’re Ian’s rankings; the one he likes more is the guy ranked higher. The story is talking about Montgomery rather than say Walker because Montgomery is a better value (being selected considerably later).

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-09-04T00:34:13Z
I decided to create a spreadsheet from the cheat sheet rankings, and since our leagues are Yahoo (free) leagues, I added and Yahoo column so I'd have side-by side rankings at a glance. Helped me a lot. There was quite a difference of opinion between Yahoo's and Index on Montgomery (and huge difference in Ferguson's case too. I'll take your advice any time as opposed to Yahoo's.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-09-04T01:06:49Z
This'll be my last question, and I only ask it now because I've got a pair of IDP drafts tomorrow with guys who've been playing in those leagues for years.
Yahoo has Shaq Leonard ranked as #7 LB, and the Index has Leonard at #26. I had Leonard last season (disastrous) but wanted to grab him again. Pretty sure someone's gonna jump on that #7. Is the biggest reason for #26 because of remaining health concerns? Thanks for your advice as always.

Russell Pitts

Fallbrook, CA
2023-09-04T02:49:50Z
I was able to get Walker III and Pacheco with my first two picks in our snake draft. Really needed them since Taylor was one of my 4 keepers along with Herbert, Adams and C. Watson. Stoked to get Higgins, Dotson and Ferguson later.

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA
2023-09-04T06:33:03Z
In our 4-player Keeper league, I already kept Pacheco, but figured I needed a stud receiver in Round 1 of our draft and took Kupp (hoping his ankle/hamstring issues are not severe). I was primed to take Montgomery with my next pick but the guy in front of me (also an Index reader I believe) grabbed him. Don't you hate when that happens?

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-09-04T11:16:03Z
Paul, yes. He was actually sidelined the second half of August with a concussion. Not an injury risk I want to wade into this year

Robert McKinlay

Belews Creek, NC
2023-09-04T12:38:22Z
That KC vs Det could be high scoring. I have to stsrt Montgomery or McKinnon at flex in ppr league. With ranking I best go with Montgomery as dont think Chiefs will yrsil. Ian I grabbed Ferguson per your ranking. My league drafted Schultz 6 rounds earlier
As last pick in ppr do you like over full season Nacua or Mclaughlin?

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-09-04T15:00:09Z
Nacua might be a Week 1 starter. McLaughlin might need an injury to even get on the field. I understand it's a last-round pick but drafting a No. 3 running back seems unnecessary.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-09-04T15:57:49Z
Thank you Andy!

Rob D.

Wellington, FL
2023-09-04T17:39:13Z
I don't see it with either Pacheco OR Montgomery. Pacheco is coming off of 2 major offseason injuries for wrist/hand , as well as a shoulder/labrum. Quietly, CEH took most of the 1st team reps last preseason game, the one when Pacehco played. CEH has bulked up have you noticed he's a lot thicker in the thighs and legs in general? this kid is still young, has all the tools and should get the bulk of the work this first game - no way they throw Pacheco to the fire without practicing and barely playing in preseason. it's an audition for CEH, I don't think he's going away, this is going to be a full-blown RBBC.
I just want to point out that you should watch the video of the Lions front office , on Draft Day, the moment they got Gibbs. Good Morning Football ( NFLN) was showing this clip over and over on friday. why? just go watch the exuberance of the Lions GM how he was hollering and woo-hooing like a kid on Christmas Morning. They got their guy, they're going to use their guy till his legs fall off. he's the star and Monty is nothing more than the goal line back. Hard to go against Ian here, he's almost ALWAYS dead right with RB predictions. but Monty and Pacheco will both fall flat on their faces this year imo. we're kicking CEH to the curb way too prematurely. On another note, not sure Ian's take on Pollard, but I'd consider giving D. Vaughn a look-in here.Pollard seems like the hype guy buoyed by Dallas Nation fanfare. I'm not sure it pays off, I'd be shocked if he finishes anywhere near where people are predicting.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-09-04T17:54:07Z
If you're going to champion Gibbs using the excitement of the front office after drafting him, keep in mind that same front office gave Montgomery a 3-year, $18 million contract at the outset of free agency, with $11 million guaranteed. That's not goal-line back money. As for CEH, Kansas City is the team that mothballed the guy a month into last season even when healthy, not us. The last four games both Pacheco and CEH were available, Pacheco got 44 carries and CEH 12.

Luke Wilson

Richardson, TX
2023-09-04T20:03:52Z
Mr. Costello, regarding Dolphins’ backup situation: Looks like Mike White has held off Skylar Thompson for the backup job for now, as expected. Sure glad since I took him to extort the Tua owner with later in the year in a superflex dynasty, hehehe…

Surprised at the Davis Montgomery reticence in here! Montgomery and Gibbs aren’t the same players as Jamaal Williams and Gibbs… but the usages, they sure might be. Week 1 with the Chiefs going to be missing All-Pro menace Chris Jones upfront, I am extremely confident the Lions are going to bully the Chiefs inside with Frank Ragnow and a healthy Halapoulivaati Vaitai and use Montgomery to win the time of possession battle and short Mahomes a possession or two. Granted, I have Montgomery on like half my teams at this point - but still!

Michael Miller

New York, NY
2023-09-05T03:44:32Z
ok. I got Pacheco , Monty, Chubb and Mixon.
My wr are kinda crap (dj moore, christian kirk and who cares) and my QB is Mahomes, with Dallas as my defense, KOO as my kicker amd Kmet as my te.

riding that Pacheco, monty rb2 and flex into a championship

Jay Harding

Oregon City, OR
2023-09-05T15:58:37Z
Ian, since 1989 I've trusted your analysis more often than not, I hope you are correct on these 2 plus Jake Ferguson another player you are way higher on than consensus. Last night from the #2 Slot in The Fantasy Championship Tournament over at Real Time Fantasy Sports I started Chase, Waddle, Etienne, Christian Watson, Drake London, Montgomery, Pacheco, Brian Robinson Jr, then I went Evan Engram, Thielen and Geno Smith as QB 1 & backed up Engram with Ferguson in the 15th. If your rankings are on point this team should contend.

Appreciate all your hard work!

Is it it Thursday yet?

Jay

Ernest Moody

Forest Hts, MD
2023-09-06T06:56:41Z
I, like Jay, have also drafted a FFI trusted analysis team, with only one player ranked lower than #14 in his position (Nico Collins), and like John Ruppe, Yahoo gave me an F draft rating, and a prediction of 3-13..."CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!" Starting Roster of Geno/Mixon/Najee/Diggs/GarrettW/Friermuth/KWIII/Jets/Koo
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