I get nervous selecting running backs from bad teams. If a team or offense is truly putrid, how often is it going to get anywhere close to the end zone? And with that in mind, how good can a running back like James Conner be?
The Cardinals, after all, look pretty certain to pretty terrible – not only the worst team in the league, but worse than most of the other really crappy teams that will come along in the next few years. They seem as if they’re hoping to finish with a poor record, landing the No. 1 pick in next spring’s draft.
This being the case, Conner looks more like a depth-type running back rather than somebody you want to have to rely on.
That said, Conner was able to finish with top-20 numbers last year among running backs (using PPR scoring). That Cardinals team went only 4-13.
But let’s take a big-picture look at the lay of the land with running backs and terrible teams. In the 32-team era, 45 teams have finished seasons with 3 or fewer wins. Six of those teams had running back who finished with top-10 numbers (most recently James Robinson for the 2020 Jaguars). Another 13 had running backs who finished with top-20 numbers. The halfway point for those 45 running backs was ranking 24th at the position, and that seems like a reasonable expectation for Conner.
In the chart below, players finishing with top-10 numbers are in bold. Others who made the top 20 are tagged with black dots.
| BEST RUNNING BACKS ON TEAMS WITH 0-3 WINS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | W-L | Run | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2002 | • Corey Dillon, Cin. | 2-14 | 1311 | 298 | 7 | 245.9 | 16 |
| 2002 | James Stewart, Det. | 3-13 | 1021 | 333 | 6 | 217.4 | 21 |
| 2004 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 2-14 | 822 | 212 | 7 | 180.4 | 24 |
| 2005 | • Domanick Williams, Hou. | 2-14 | 976 | 337 | 6 | 206.3 | 15 |
| 2005 | Antowain Smith, N.O. | 3-13 | 659 | 46 | 3 | 100.5 | 45 |
| 2006 | • Kevin Jones, Det. | 3-13 | 689 | 520 | 8 | 229.9 | 12 |
| 2006 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 2-14 | 659 | 91 | 1 | 94.0 | 48 |
| 2007 | • Steven Jackson, St.L. | 3-13 | 1002 | 271 | 6 | 205.4 | 15 |
| 2007 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 1-15 | 602 | 389 | 5 | 170.1 | 23 |
| 2008 | • Steven Jackson, St.L. | 2-14 | 1042 | 379 | 8 | 230.1 | 15 |
| 2008 | • Kevin Smith, Det. | 0-16 | 976 | 286 | 8 | 213.2 | 17 |
| 2008 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 2-14 | 874 | 74 | 5 | 141.0 | 40 |
| 2009 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1-15 | 1416 | 322 | 4 | 248.8 | 8 |
| 2009 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 2-14 | 747 | 415 | 5 | 187.2 | 21 |
| 2009 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 3-13 | 823 | 217 | 7 | 174.0 | 26 |
| 2010 | Mike Goodson, Car. | 2-14 | 452 | 310 | 3 | 134.2 | 38 |
| 2011 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 2-14 | 1145 | 333 | 6 | 225.8 | 10 |
| 2011 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 3-13 | 970 | 139 | 13 | 206.9 | 15 |
| 2011 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 2-14 | 645 | 86 | 5 | 119.1 | 38 |
| 2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 2-14 | 1509 | 236 | 6 | 245.5 | 9 |
| 2012 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 2-14 | 414 | 86 | 2 | 76.0 | 54 |
| 2013 | • Alfred Morris, Was. | 3-13 | 1275 | 78 | 7 | 186.3 | 20 |
| 2013 | Ben Tate, Hou. | 2-14 | 771 | 140 | 4 | 149.1 | 30 |
| 2014 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 3-13 | 534 | 212 | 2 | 122.6 | 36 |
| 2014 | Denard Robinson, Jac. | 3-13 | 582 | 124 | 4 | 117.6 | 38 |
| 2014 | Bobby Rainey, T.B. | 2-14 | 406 | 315 | 2 | 117.1 | 40 |
| 2014 | Bishop Sankey, Ten. | 2-14 | 569 | 133 | 2 | 100.2 | 44 |
| 2015 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 3-13 | 379 | 534 | 2 | 164.3 | 24 |
| 2015 | Antonio Andrews, Ten. | 3-13 | 520 | 174 | 3 | 114.5 | 46 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 3-13 | 1313 | 298 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
| 2016 | • Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | 1-15 | 952 | 319 | 7 | 209.1 | 14 |
| 2016 | • Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 2-14 | 988 | 163 | 9 | 198.1 | 18 |
| 2016 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 3-13 | 465 | 312 | 2 | 139.7 | 34 |
| 2017 | • Duke Johnson, Cle. | 0-16 | 348 | 693 | 7 | 220.1 | 11 |
| 2017 | Orleans Darkwa, NYG | 3-13 | 751 | 116 | 5 | 137.7 | 36 |
| 2018 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 3-13 | 940 | 446 | 10 | 250.6 | 9 |
| 2019 | • Joe Mixon, Cin. | 2-14 | 1137 | 287 | 8 | 225.4 | 13 |
| 2019 | Adrian Peterson, Was. | 3-13 | 898 | 142 | 5 | 151.0 | 32 |
| 2019 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 3-12-1 | 403 | 127 | 4 | 87.0 | 54 |
| 2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1-15 | 1070 | 344 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
| 2020 | Frank Gore, NYJ | 2-14 | 653 | 89 | 2 | 102.2 | 46 |
| 2021 | • D'Andre Swift, Det. | 3-13-1 | 617 | 452 | 7 | 210.9 | 15 |
| 2021 | James Robinson, Jac. | 3-14 | 767 | 222 | 8 | 177.9 | 24 |
| 2022 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 3-14 | 801 | 316 | 6 | 181.7 | 24 |
| 2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 3-13-1 | 939 | 165 | 5 | 170.4 | 25 |
Some will say I’m being too hard on the Cardinals, suggesting that they won’t win 4 games. They get to play the similar weak Rams twice, after all. They’re also playing the Bears, Texans and Commanders, and upsets invariably occur. So some would say more reasonable to project the Cardinals to finish 4-13.
Looking at the 57 teams that have won 4 games in the 32-team era, I see four running backs who finished with top-10 numbers, along with another 14 who finished in the top 20 (including Conner last year). That’s slightly less than a third finishing with top-20 numbers.
For the 4-win teams, slightly more than half of those teams didn’t have a running back who ranked in the top 25 statistically using PPR scoring. That’s kind of my gut feel for Conner; if you pick him, it’s with the hope he’ll be about the 25th-best running back, providing some serviceable baseline production while healthy, but with limited upside.
(I smile as I write this, because careful readers will note that in the sample auction in the magazine, I actually purchased not only Conner but two other starting running backs from similarly underpowered teams – Cam Akers and Rachaad White. I may finish with the starting running backs for the three worst teams in the league.)
| BEST RUNNING BACKS ON TEAMS WITH 4 WINS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | W-L | Run | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2002 | James Allen, Hou. | 4-12 | 519 | 302 | 0 | 135.4 | 36 |
| 2002 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 4-12 | 721 | 163 | 6 | 148.4 | 34 |
| 2003 | Marcel Shipp, Ariz. | 4-12 | 830 | 184 | 0 | 131.4 | 35 |
| 2003 | Charlie Garner, Oak. | 4-12 | 553 | 386 | 4 | 165.9 | 26 |
| 2003 | • Tiki Barber, NYG | 4-12 | 1216 | 461 | 3 | 256.7 | 11 |
| 2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 4-12 | 1645 | 725 | 17 | 444.1 | 2 |
| 2004 | Sammy Morris, Mia. | 4-12 | 523 | 124 | 6 | 122.7 | 36 |
| 2004 | Lee Suggs, Cle. | 4-12 | 744 | 178 | 3 | 130.2 | 34 |
| 2005 | Samkon Gado, G.B. | 4-12 | 582 | 77 | 7 | 117.9 | 37 |
| 2005 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 4-12 | 581 | 241 | 3 | 131.2 | 30 |
| 2005 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 4-12 | 735 | 118 | 5 | 139.3 | 27 |
| 2005 | • Chris Brown, Ten. | 4-12 | 851 | 327 | 7 | 184.8 | 20 |
| 2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 4-12 | 1025 | 563 | 11 | 296.8 | 6 |
| 2006 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 4-12 | 798 | 196 | 1 | 135.4 | 36 |
| 2006 | Reuben Droughns, Cle. | 4-12 | 758 | 169 | 4 | 143.7 | 34 |
| 2007 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 4-12 | 559 | 186 | 4 | 128.5 | 37 |
| 2007 | Warrick Dunn, Atl. | 4-12 | 720 | 238 | 4 | 156.8 | 28 |
| 2007 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 4-12 | 1009 | 188 | 4 | 166.7 | 24 |
| 2007 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 4-12 | 1119 | 217 | 2 | 173.6 | 22 |
| 2008 | Julius Jones, Sea. | 4-12 | 698 | 66 | 2 | 102.4 | 50 |
| 2008 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 4-11-1 | 747 | 185 | 2 | 125.2 | 43 |
| 2008 | Jamal Lewis, Cle. | 4-12 | 1002 | 178 | 4 | 165.0 | 30 |
| 2009 | Rock Cartwright, Was. | 4-12 | 228 | 242 | 1 | 80.0 | 57 |
| 2009 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 4-12 | 1120 | 297 | 9 | 237.7 | 10 |
| 2010 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 4-12 | 927 | 215 | 7 | 187.2 | 22 |
| 2010 | • Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 4-12 | 779 | 372 | 8 | 200.1 | 18 |
| 2010 | • Cedric Benson, Cin. | 4-12 | 1111 | 178 | 8 | 206.9 | 16 |
| 2011 | Peyton Hillis, Cle. | 4-12 | 587 | 130 | 3 | 111.7 | 44 |
| 2011 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 4-12 | 781 | 148 | 5 | 137.9 | 33 |
| 2012 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 4-12 | 707 | 258 | 3 | 156.5 | 25 |
| 2012 | • Mikel Leshoure, Det. | 4-12 | 798 | 214 | 9 | 189.2 | 18 |
| 2012 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 4-12 | 840 | 373 | 5 | 205.3 | 16 |
| 2013 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 4-12 | 456 | 66 | 1 | 70.2 | 57 |
| 2013 | Chris Ogbonnaya, Cle. | 4-12 | 240 | 343 | 2 | 118.3 | 42 |
| 2013 | Steven Jackson, Atl. | 4-12 | 543 | 191 | 7 | 148.4 | 31 |
| 2013 | Rashad Jennings, Oak. | 4-12 | 733 | 292 | 6 | 174.5 | 24 |
| 2013 | • Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 4-12 | 803 | 314 | 5 | 189.1 | 19 |
| 2014 | Chris Ivory, NYJ | 4-12 | 821 | 123 | 7 | 154.4 | 24 |
| 2014 | • Alfred Morris, Was. | 4-12 | 1074 | 155 | 8 | 187.9 | 17 |
| 2015 | • Darren McFadden, Dall. | 4-12 | 1089 | 328 | 3 | 201.7 | 13 |
| 2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 4-12 | 336 | 755 | 9 | 243.1 | 3 |
| 2016 | • Todd Gurley, LAR | 4-12 | 885 | 327 | 6 | 200.2 | 15 |
| 2017 | • Frank Gore, Ind. | 4-12 | 961 | 245 | 4 | 173.6 | 20 |
| 2017 | • Lamar Miller, Hou. | 4-12 | 888 | 327 | 6 | 193.5 | 16 |
| 2018 | Isaiah Crowell, NYJ | 4-12 | 685 | 152 | 6 | 140.7 | 35 |
| 2018 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | 4-12 | 259 | 607 | 1 | 160.6 | 29 |
| 2018 | Matt Breida, S.F. | 4-12 | 814 | 261 | 5 | 164.5 | 26 |
| 2019 | • Saquon Barkley, NYG | 4-12 | 1003 | 438 | 8 | 244.1 | 11 |
| 2020 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 4-11-1 | 416 | 355 | 6 | 160.1 | 30 |
| 2020 | Todd Gurley, Atl. | 4-12 | 678 | 164 | 9 | 163.2 | 29 |
| 2020 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 4-11-1 | 867 | 197 | 6 | 174.4 | 23 |
| 2020 | David Johnson, Hou. | 4-12 | 691 | 314 | 8 | 181.5 | 21 |
| 2021 | Rex Burkhead, Hou. | 4-13 | 427 | 186 | 3 | 104.3 | 52 |
| 2021 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 4-13 | 593 | 263 | 4 | 150.6 | 30 |
| 2021 | Michael Carter, NYJ | 4-13 | 639 | 325 | 4 | 156.4 | 29 |
| 2022 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 4-12-1 | 861 | 143 | 4 | 152.4 | 33 |
| 2022 | • James Conner, Ariz. | 4-13 | 782 | 300 | 8 | 202.2 | 19 |
—Ian Allan