Three quarterbacks were picked with the first four picks of the draft, and they’re all starting on opening day. That gets my attention, with the potential for more sacks and turnovers.
Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, after all, both threw ill-advised interceptions on their first series in the preseason. Bryce Young took 3 sacks. They all look capable of melting down against front-line defenses.
Baltimore’s defense (against Stroud) looks particularly good to me. It’s also reasonable to rank the Falcons and Jaguars higher than usual. Atlanta didn’t have many sacks last year, but it’s running a different, more aggressive scheme.
Looking at past years, however, I notice that rookie quarterbacks haven’t been quite as error prone as I was expecting. In the 32-team era, 23 quarterbacks selected in the first round have started openers. They’ve taken 52 sacks and thrown 30 interceptions, with 2 of those balls returned for touchdowns. Odd-tilting numbers, but not a slam dunk for success.
Of those 23 quarterbacks, I see only 7 who took more than 2 sacks (less than a third), and I see only 7 who threw multiple interceptions. I see only two who did both.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS IN WEEK 1 STARTS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk |
| 2002 | • David Carr, Hou. | Dall. | W 19-10 | 10 | 22 | 145 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 2003 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | at Pitt. | L 15-34 | 22 | 43 | 152 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2004 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | at NYJ | L 24-31 | 18 | 27 | 248 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | • Matt Ryan, Atl. | Det. | W 34-21 | 9 | 13 | 161 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2008 | • Joe Flacco, Balt. | Cin. | W 17-10 | 15 | 29 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | at N.O. | L 27-45 | 16 | 37 | 205 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 2009 | • Mark Sanchez, NYJ | at Hou. | W 24-7 | 18 | 31 | 272 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | Ari. | L 13-17 | 32 | 55 | 253 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | at Ari. | L 21-28 | 24 | 37 | 422 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | Phil. | L 16-17 | 12 | 35 | 118 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | at Chi. | L 21-41 | 23 | 45 | 309 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | at Hou. | L 10-30 | 20 | 36 | 219 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 2012 | • Robert Griffin, Was. | at N.O. | W 40-32 | 19 | 26 | 320 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | N.E. | L 21-23 | 18 | 27 | 150 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | Ten. | L 14-42 | 16 | 33 | 210 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2015 | • Marcus Mariota, Ten. | at T.B. | W 42-14 | 13 | 15 | 209 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 2016 | • Carson Wentz, Phil. | Cle. | W 29-10 | 22 | 37 | 278 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2018 | • Sam Darnold, NYJ | at Det. | W 48-17 | 16 | 21 | 198 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | Det. | T 27-27 | 29 | 54 | 308 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | LAC | L 13-16 | 23 | 36 | 193 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | at Hou. | L 21-37 | 28 | 51 | 332 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | at Car. | L 14-19 | 20 | 37 | 258 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | Mia. | L 16-17 | 29 | 39 | 281 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022 | A. Richardson, Ind. | Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | at Balt. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | Bryce Young, Car. | at Atl. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan