Factoid

September 06, 2023

Rookie running backs

Will Bijan provide extra mustard in debut game?

The season is upon us, and many eyes on Atlanta, with a rare running back picked in the top 10. But will Bijan Robinson be an instant-impact star? Or somewhat of a disappointment?

The Falcons listed him as their third-string running back for all of August, but they have him listed now as a starter, with Tyler Allgeier second on the depth chart. Cordarrelle Patterson is listed as a “joker”. Patterson, who has played as a running back and a wide receiver during his career, is still listed as a running back on the team’s roster.

Helping Robinson along is his dual-threat ability. He’ll be a runner and a pass catcher. And with Patterson having been out with an unspecified soft-tissue injury, Robinson could be even more involved in the passing game than usual in his debut. (I’m not sure Patterson will even play.)

Atlanta is opening at home against Carolina. The Panthers probably will be without Brian Burns, who’s their best defensive player. (He wants a new contract.)

I used to have a theory that if a running back was elite – a difference-maker – you could usually see it from the git-go. I remember Earl Campbell, Ottis Anderson, Curt Warner, Billy Sims and others tearing it up in their first games. Those guys stepped on the field, and it was immediately apparent the landscape of the league had changed. Guys might be a little slower starting now.

I ran some numbers on this. In the 32-team era, 47 rookie running backs have put up at least 10 fantasy points (PPR) in Week 1. Just over 2 per year. This is not to suggest that 10 points is some kind of benchmark we’re trying to hit; I’m just trying to get the guys listed. (I see 25 at the more impressive 15 PPR.) And for those in standard, I’m listing those points also.

The list of 47 running backs includes 16 that were first-round picks. But also note that there were 29 other running backs chosen in the first round that fell short of even 10 points per game).

I’m not suggesting Robinson has a two out of three chance of falling on his face. With that pass-catching ability, I think he’s got a real good chance of being a top-10 back in Week 1. But we could see a few more carries going to Allgeier than most are expecting.

In the chart below, first-round players tagged with black dots.

ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS IN WEEK 1
Year	Player	Opp	Score	FPts	PPR
2017	Kareem Hunt, K.C.	at N.E.	W 42-27	40.6	45.6
2017	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	Atl.	L 17-23	17.3	25.3
2019	• Josh Jacobs, Oak.	Den.	W 24-16	23.3	24.3
2007	• Adrian Peterson, Min.	Atl.	W 24-3	22.3	23.3
2008	Matt Forte, Chi.	at Ind.	W 29-13	20.1	23.1
2008	• Chris Johnson, Ten.	Jac.	W 17-10	18.7	21.7
2012	Alfred Morris, Was.	at N.O.	W 40-32	21.6	21.6
2017	• Leonard Fournette, Jac.	at Hou.	W 29-7	18.4	21.4
2005	• Cadillac Williams, T.B.	at Min.	W 24-13	20.8	20.8
2018	• Saquon Barkley, NYG	Jac.	L 15-20	18.8	20.8
2010	• Jahvid Best, Det.	at Chi.	L 14-19	15.6	20.6
2020	• Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.	Hou.	W 34-20	19.8	19.8
2015	Ameer Abdullah, Det.	at Pitt.	L 28-33	15.4	19.4
2006	• Reggie Bush, N.O.	at Cle.	W 19-14	11.9	18.9
2006	Mike Bell, Den.	at St.L.	L 10-18	14.8	18.8
2021	Ty'Son Williams, Balt.	at L.V.	L 27-33	15.4	18.4
2018	Phillip Lindsay, Den.	Sea.	W 27-24	16.2	18.2
2008	Kevin Smith, Det.	at Atl.	L 21-34	14.0	18.0
2007	• Marshawn Lynch, Buff.	Den.	L 14-15	15.9	17.9
2016	Jalen Richard, Oak.	at N.O.	W 35-34	15.5	17.5
2017	Dalvin Cook, Min.	N.O.	W 29-19	13.7	16.7
2021	Elijah Mitchell, S.F.	at Det.	W 41-33	16.4	16.4
2012	• Doug Martin, T.B.	Car.	W 16-10	11.8	15.8
2011	Ben Tate, Hou.	Ind.	W 34-7	15.6	15.6
2014	Isaiah Crowell, Cle.	at Pitt.	L 27-30	15.2	15.2
2020	• Jonathan Taylor, Ind.	at Jac.	L 20-27	8.9	14.9
2019	Devin Singletary, Buff.	at NYJ	W 17-16	9.8	14.8
2020	J.K. Dobbins, Balt.	Cle.	W 38-6	14.2	14.2
2015	David Johnson, Ari.	N.O.	W 31-19	11.5	12.5
2008	Tim Hightower, Ari.	at S.F.	W 23-13	9.4	12.4
2021	Kenneth Gainwell, Phil.	at Atl.	W 32-6	10.3	12.3
2013	• Eddie Lacy, G.B.	at S.F.	L 28-34	11.2	12.2
2016	• Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	NYG	L 19-20	11.2	12.2
2008	• Felix Jones, Dall.	at Cle.	W 28-10	12.2	12.2
2022	Isiah Pacheco, K.C.	at Ari.	W 44-21	12.2	12.2
2018	Nyheim Hines, Ind.	Cin.	L 23-34	5.2	12.2
2020	Joshua Kelley, LAC	at Cin.	W 16-13	12.0	12.0
2020	Zack Moss, Buff.	NYJ	W 27-17	8.7	11.7
2017	• Christian McCaffrey, Car.	at S.F.	W 23-3	6.5	11.5
2007	Brandon Jackson, G.B.	Phil.	W 16-13	7.5	11.5
2015	Karlos Williams, Buff.	Ind.	W 27-14	11.5	11.5
2017	Marlon Mack, Ind.	at LAR	L 9-46	10.5	11.5
2020	D'Andre Swift, Det.	Chi.	L 23-27	8.3	11.3
2014	Carlos Hyde, S.F.	at Dall.	W 28-17	11.0	11.0
2022	Breece Hall, NYJ	Balt.	L 9-24	4.1	10.1
2020	James Robinson, Jac.	Ind.	W 27-20	9.0	10.0
2014	Terrance West, Cle.	at Pitt.	L 27-30	10.0	10.0

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

First-round running backs who didn’t put up 10 PPR points in their first game (some of these guys didn’t even play because of injuries).

FIRST-ROUNDERS WHO DIDN'T SHINE
Year	Player	Tm	Pick
2005	Ronnie Brown	Mia.	2
2012	Trent Richardson	Clev.	3
2005	Cedric Benson	Chi.	4
2008	Darren McFadden	Oak.	4
2010	C.J. Spiller	Buff.	9
2015	Todd Gurley	St.L.	10
2009	Knowshon Moreno	Den.	12
2010	Ryan Mathews	S.D.	12
2008	Jonathan Stewart	Car.	13
2015	Melvin Gordon	S.D.	15
2002	William Green	Clev.	16
2002	T.J. Duckett	Atl.	18
2006	Laurence Maroney	N.E.	21
2008	Rashard Mendenhall	Pitt.	23
2003	Willis McGahee	Buff.	23
2021	Najee Harris	Pitt.	24
2004	Steven Jackson	St.L.	24
2021	Travis Etienne	Jac.	25
2004	Chris Perry	Cin.	26
2006	DeAngelo Williams	Car.	27
2009	Donald Brown	Ind.	27
2003	Larry Johnson	K.C.	27
2018	Rashaad Penny	Sea.	27
2011	Mark Ingram	N.O.	28
2006	Joseph Addai	Ind.	30
2004	Kevin Jones	Det.	30
2009	Beanie Wells	Ariz.	31
2018	Sony Michel	N.E.	31
2012	David Wilson	NYG	32

—Ian Allan

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