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Guillotine Leagues

Week 5 FAAB report

Players to target on Guillotine waivers

In Week 4, there were not a ton of injuries, but the bye weeks are now upon us. That adds a unique dynamic to bidding in Guillotine leagues – a place where we can take advantage of the market. I’m here to help you make the best waiver wire bid on the most chopped players going into Week 5.

Team Assumptions:
The bid amounts are subject to how your team is doing. If you are cruising along just fine, your team is a top-half team, and you’ve sustained minimal injuries, congratulations. The bids I recommend should be lowered by roughly 5-8 percent. If your team was nearly chopped this week (like mine), you’re dealing with serious injuries, or you simply won’t get any points out of the player you’ve got to start, consider going above these recommended bids by 5-8 percent. If you’re in the middle of the pack, feel free to bid as recommended. For a more detailed and tailored recommendation amount, feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @_ColtWilliams. I do a guillotine league post every Tuesday morning. You show me your team and which players are available, and I recommend amounts to bid.

Top 10 Players Chopped from Week 4:

Deebo Samuel (bid 6 percent)
The fantasy wide receiver six before Week 4, where he was used merely as a decoy. Against the Cardinals, I assume they figured they didn’t need him, which explains why he’s still running a ton of routes but receiving no targets. Deebo is still dealing with knee and rib injuries, which gives me some cause for concern. In matchups with the Cowboys and Browns the next two weeks, the 49ers will likely use him more than just a decoy.

Chris Olave (bid 6 percent)
As long as Derek Carr is nursing his shoulder injury, Olave is a risk. We just saw Carr complete 23 passes for 127 yards. Absolutely abysmal. Carr is better than that, but the injury is clearly limiting him, which also limits Olave. I’d assume others will bid more given the name, but I’m not sold. Olave still has a 26 percent target share and the most yards in the NFL without a touchdown.

Jordan Addison (bid 3 percent)
Wide receivers are a dime a dozen. I’m not paying a ton for the third target for the Vikings, who is playing behind K.J. Osborn. Addison has a ton of room for growth, but relying on him week in and week out shouldn’t be necessary.

Austin Ekeler (bid 15 percent)
Just as we predicted, Ekeler was going to sit out until the bye. The good news is that he didn’t play, so he didn’t aggravate his injury, and he’s on bye, so I’d expect people who badly need a running back for this week to bid on other players. The bad news is that he is on bye, so if you need a running back this week, you’ve got to look elsewhere. I’d still bid high on Ekeler, as he could be a top-three running back for the rest of the season.

Amari Cooper (bid 4 percent)
Cooper is here because he had to play with rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who made his first start on Sunday. I heard that Dorian got less than two hours to prep for the game prior to knowing he would be starting - rough! Nevertheless, much like Addison, wide receivers come up often. Although Cooper is the first read among the Browns’ passing options, he’s on bye then travels to San Francisco to play the 49ers. He might make another appearance soon enough.

Patrick Mahomes (bid 10 percent)
I’m the type of person who streams quarterback in a Guillotine league, so I don’t typically spend up for elite quarterback options. However, if you’ve been rolling out Mac Jones, Derek Carr or Joe Burrow, perhaps consider paying up for Mahomes.

Tyreek Hill (bid 30 percent)
Hill is a player, regardless of matchup, you’re going to be starting each and every single week. A foundational cog in your roster. I would still bid the 30 percent even if I had Waddle on my team and start both. If Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, or Tyreek Hill come up on your waivers, spend up and get them.

George Kittle (bid 4 percent)
The tight end landscape isn’t great, and so far this season, Kittle hasn’t been great either. Kittle has 30 receiving yards or less in three out of four games. With so many weapons on offense, it’s hard to get everyone the ball, especially with McCaffrey dominating this year.

Aaron Jones (bid 7 percent)
Over the next three weeks, Jones plays the Raiders, then has a bye, then plays the Broncos. Two ideal matchups for running backs if you can withstand having him on bye next week. Side note: A.J. Dillon has been subpar in Jones’ absence.

Michael Pittman (bid 10 percent)
Pittman has been on fire so far this season. Top 10 in targets, elite target share, eighth in the league in first-read targets, and 11th in receptions. In PPR leagues, he’s absolutely crucial for your team. The yardage hasn’t quite been there, but I’ll take Pittman and plug him into my lineup as a solid wide receiver two for the rest of the season.

—Colt Williams

Williams is working towards a degree in economics and statistics at Sonoma State. A United States Air Force veteran, he’s been playing fantasy football since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @_ColtWilliams

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