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Guillotine Leagues

Week 4 FAAB report

What to spend on free agents in Guillotine Leagues

In Week 3, we only saw one major injury over the weekend, and that was to Chargers receiver Mike Williams. He was off to a hot start as the WR15 through three weeks. Nevertheless, I’m here to help you make the best waiver wire bid on the most chopped players in Week 3.

Team Assumptions:
The bid amounts are subject to how your team is doing. If you are cruising along just fine, your team is a top-half team after two weeks, and you’ve sustained minimal injuries, congratulations. The bids I recommend should be lowered by roughly 5-8 percent. If your team was nearly chopped this week (like mine), you’re dealing with serious injuries, or you simply won’t get any points out of the player you’ve got to start, consider going above these recommended bids by 5-8 percent. If you’re in the middle of the pack, feel free to bid as recommended. For a more detailed and tailored recommendation amount, feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @_ColtWilliams. I do a guillotine league post every Tuesday morning. You show me your team and which players are available, and I recommend amounts to bid.

Top 10 Players Chopped in Week 3:

Tee Higgins - Bid 8 percent
Higgins has had 8 or more targets in every game this season, but just like in Week 1 (where he had 8 targets for 0 receptions), he disappeared again. He did miss just a few snaps due to an injury scare, but he came back onto the field just fine. The Bengals’ offense hasn’t picked up where it was last year. According to Fantasy Points Data, among wide receivers with at least 80 routes run on the season thus far (full-time players), Higgins has by far the worst catch percentage with 37 percent. For context, players around his usage, such as Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen are around 80 percent. I want to see more out of the Bengals’ offense before I’d spend over 10 percent of my budget.

Derrick Henry - Bid 9 percent
Getting out snapped by a rookie running back in Week 3 wasn’t on my bingo card for the NFL season. It seems Henry can be game-scripted out. A tough matchup against the Browns in Week 3 will help you end up on this list too. Running backs are going down like flies, so I understand if you need to bid up, but be mindful that you’re probably not getting the King Henry we’re used to. If there is any optimism, it comes from his next two matchups against teams that are both allowing top-10 fantasy points to the running back position in 2023.

DeVonta Smith - Bid 10 percent
Week 3 was an A.J. Brown game, so Smith got the night off. It helps when you have a positive game script and D’Andre Swift, who in the past two weeks has 300-plus rushing yards. These weeks will happen again, but Smith is a locked-and-loaded piece for your team.

Brandon Aiyuk - Bid 8 percent
Aiyuk ranked 8th in fantasy before he was marked out for Week 3. Miss a game, and you’re likely to end up on the list, and Aiyuk did just that. He’s practicing Monday, so I wouldn’t expect this injury to make him miss more time. In an offense with multiple weapons, much like Smith and the Eagles, I expect him to have his ups and downs.

Austin Ekeler - Bid 4 percent
Normally, Ekeler would be a lock to spend around 15 percent of your budget on, but with his injury, the Chargers may just hold him out for one more week, then hit their bye week in Week 5. I’m approaching the situation as if you’re not getting him for two more weeks, which is crucial in a guillotine league. You’re not likely to get him at that bid amount, but if he sits the next two weeks, you’ll thank me later that you didn’t, and you may get another crack at him soon enough.

Bijan Robinson - Bid 15 percent
According to FantasyPros, the Falcons have passed to the running back position at the 2nd-most frequent rate in football, which lines up exactly with Bijan getting at least 5 targets per game thus far into his NFL career. He’s getting a bell-cow workload, he just had a down week. His floor is very high because of his volume, which is ideal for guillotine leagues.

Saquon Barkley - Bid 7-11 percent
He missed Week 3 and is considered day-to-day with his ankle injury. Unlike Ekeler, his bye week isn’t anytime soon. If you do win the bid for Barkley, just know that he plays on Monday Night Football, and unlike most normal redraft leagues with 10-12 teams, there are 15 teams, making it much harder to audible in the event you’re counting on him. If you think he'll play on Monday and so on, I’d bid 11 percent. I’m not as optimistic and would highly consider you bid 7 percent.

Jaylen Waddle - Bid 11 percent
It’s mind-blowing that the Dolphins put up 70 points on the Broncos in Week 3 without Waddle. It’s rare to see a player sit out consecutive weeks due to a concussion, so I’d expect Waddle to be good to go. Among full-time players, Waddle was only behind Skyy Moore in yards after the catch per reception. On arguably the best offense in football, Waddle is someone I’d pay up for.

Drake London - Bid 4 percent
The wide receivers for the Falcons are being targeted at the lowest rate in the league (35.3 percent), according to FantasyPros. The next highest is the Bears at 50 percent. That’s a low that hasn’t been hit in the first three weeks of the NFL season since 2018. London is the real deal, Ridder and Arthur Smith are not. Ridder has the 5th-fewest passing yards among quarterbacks who have started every game this season. Ridder’s also second in off-target throws. London shouldn’t be looked at as someone you can lock into your lineup with any sort of confidence.

CeeDee Lamb - Bid 12 percent
I was a little shocked to see Lamb’s name as one of the top 10 most chopped players. He didn’t have a bad game, which almost always helps you get on this list, but I digress. Lamb is alongside Puka Nacua and Chris Olave as the only wide receivers who are in the top 20 on the season without a touchdown. The touchdowns will be coming soon enough for Lamb.

—Colt Williams

Williams is working towards a degree in economics and statistics at Sonoma State. A United States Air Force veteran, he’s been playing fantasy football since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @_ColtWilliams

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