Fantasy Index

header banner img
Win here.


Eagles receivers

Brown, Smith could be headed for diminished roles

I will be interested to see what Kellen Moore does with Philadelphia’s offense. I would think they’re not bringing him in to run the same old stuff, and that could result in more of an effort to get players other than A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith involved as pass catchers.

Over the past two years, it’s been a one-two punch receiving situation, with Brown and Smith accounting for almost two thirds of the team’s production. They haven’t used third and fourth receivers much at all. I would think with Moore as the offensive coordinator, there will be more of an effort to take advantage of lesser players in favorable situations. When Moore was with the Cowboys, Cedrick Wilson, Randall Cobb and Noah Brown all had surprisingly decent seasons. Philadelphia hasn’t had anybody like that recently.

Since the Eagles obtained Brown, he’s accounted for over 38 percent of their receiving production. Smith in those two seasons has accounted for 27 percent of their receiving numbers (using PPR scoring). Moore, meanwhile, has been an offensive coordinator for the last five years, with only two wide receivers finishing above a 23 percent share.

RECEIVING SHARE (Eagles v. Kellen Moore WR)
2022A.J. Brown, Phi.881,49611303.644%350-4364-25
2023A.J. Brown, Phi.1061,4567293.633%369-3834-24
2022CeeDee Lamb, Dall.1071,3599296.932%355-3911-28
2023Keenan Allen, LAC1081,2437274.329%409-3957-24
2022DeVonta Smith, Phi.951,1967256.628%350-4364-25
2023DeVonta Smith, Phi.811,0667229.626%369-3834-24
2019Amari Cooper, Dall.791,1898245.923%388-4902-30
2020Amari Cooper, Dall.921,1145233.423%413-4511-25
2019Michael Gallup, Dall.661,1076212.720%388-4902-30
2021Amari Cooper, Dall.688658202.520%444-4963-40
2020CeeDee Lamb, Dall.749355197.519%413-4511-25
2020Michael Gallup, Dall.598435173.317%413-4511-25
2021CeeDee Lamb, Dall.791,1026225.215%444-4963-40
2021Cedrick Wilson, Dall.456026141.215%444-4963-40
2019Randall Cobb, Dall.558283155.815%388-4902-30
2022Michael Gallup, Dall.394244105.414%355-3911-28
2023Josh Palmer, LAC385812108.111%409-3957-24
2022Noah Brown, Dall.435553116.511%355-3911-28
2023Quentin Johnston, LAC38431293.110%409-3957-24

I think it’s a safe assumption that Brown and Smith won’t be dominating Philadelphia’s targets as extensively as they have in the past. If they’re to finish with comparable numbers, it will more likely be through some combination of the team passing more often or more effectively – the old rising-tide-lifts-all-boats dynamic.

The Eagles haven’t effectively passed to running backs in recent years. That’s one area where Moore might be able to help – working to do a better job of syncing up the timing on those plays. They’ve added Saquon Barkley, who’s a threat to go a long way with the ball when utilized properly on screen passes.

And I think there’s a chance we’ll see a better version of Dallas Goedert. If Moore is looking to do a better job of spreading the ball around, Goedert will presumably be a big part of that. Over the last five years, Moore has had three tight ends (Dalton Schultz 3 times) who’s been more productive than Goedert the last two years.

Granted, those numbers are far less compelling when adjusting for injuries (Goedert has missed 5 and 3 games the last two years) but I think Goedert probably will see an uptick in usage.

In this chart, you’re looking at Goedert from the last two years versus the best of Moore’s tight ends over the last five seasons.

TIGHT ENDS (Eagles v. K.Moore)
2021Dalton Schultz, Dall.17788088208.83
2020Dalton Schultz, Dall.16636154148.511
2022Dalton Schultz, Dall.15575775144.710
2022Dallas Goedert, Phil.12557023143.212
2019Jason Witten, Dall.16635294141.911
2023Dallas Goedert, Phil.14595923136.314
2023Gerald Everett, LAC15514113111.123
2019Blake Jarwin, Dall.1631365385.529
2023Donald Parham, LAC1427285479.528
2022Jake Ferguson, Dall.1619174248.448
2022Peyton Hendershot, Dall.1711103339.554

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index