I'm not a fan of Aaron Rodgers. Setting aside any personal stuff, I just think 40-year-old quarterbacks who tore their Achilles after just a handful of plays a year ago are poor investment opportunities. But I can't deny that if he stays healthy, he should have some fantasy value.
He won't be running, of course, but few quarterbacks are better at putting the ball in the end zone. Just 26 touchdown passes his last full season in Green Bay, but there was some dissatisfaction with the offense and maybe a rift with Matt LaFleur; it seemed to be a bad relationship at that point. The previous two seasons he threw 48 and 37 touchdown passes. Those kind of totals are probably beyond him, but we'll see. With a potentially strong wide receiver duo of Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams, and just maybe third-round rookie Malachi Corley, another above-average season of throwing touchdowns might be in store.
Over the past four seasons, Rodgers has thrown 111 touchdowns in 50 games -- over 2.2 per game. Among all quarterbacks to start at least half the time, that's more than anyone else. Five other guys have averaged at least 2 TD passes per game. One of those guys is retired, one is now with a new team, and another has seen his receiving corps pretty much gutted this offseason. No reason to think Rodgers, if he can stay healthy, can't remain among the best in the league at finishing drives with touchdown passes. Table is sorted by TD passes per game.
| QUARTERBACKS PER START, 2020-2023 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | PYd | TDP | RYd | TDR | Pts |
| Aaron Rodgers | 50 | 242.2 | 2.22 | 6.9 | .14 | 22.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 65 | 292.5 | 2.20 | 22.1 | .12 | 26.6 |
| Tom Brady | 50 | 292.9 | 2.16 | 1.7 | .12 | 24.3 |
| Dak Prescott | 50 | 273.6 | 2.10 | 13.3 | .16 | 24.6 |
| Josh Allen | 66 | 265.8 | 2.08 | 37.4 | .56 | 28.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | 57 | 269.5 | 2.02 | 6.9 | .07 | 22.9 |
| Joe Burrow | 52 | 270.8 | 1.87 | 11.6 | .19 | 23.4 |
| Justin Herbert | 62 | 277.8 | 1.84 | 14.7 | .18 | 23.9 |
| Russell Wilson | 60 | 232.0 | 1.78 | 21.9 | .17 | 22.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 57 | 263.5 | 1.77 | 4.0 | .02 | 20.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 51 | 244.5 | 1.59 | 7.5 | .10 | 20.0 |
| Jared Goff | 63 | 257.3 | 1.56 | 4.4 | .10 | 20.3 |
| Geno Smith | 35 | 242.2 | 1.54 | 15.4 | .09 | 20.5 |
| Derek Carr | 65 | 250.9 | 1.52 | 6.0 | .05 | 19.6 |
| Kyler Murray | 49 | 243.4 | 1.51 | 38.9 | .45 | 25.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 55 | 210.2 | 1.51 | 61.0 | .31 | 24.6 |
| Carson Wentz | 37 | 215.6 | 1.49 | 17.1 | .22 | 20.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 57 | 217.5 | 1.37 | 9.5 | .07 | 17.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 53 | 217.7 | 1.34 | 13.4 | .32 | 19.7 |
| Matt Ryan | 45 | 257.9 | 1.33 | 5.4 | .09 | 19.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 37 | 226.9 | 1.32 | 3.9 | .11 | 17.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 51 | 228.0 | 1.29 | 47.5 | .80 | 26.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 50 | 235.4 | 1.16 | 19.3 | .22 | 19.8 |
| Mac Jones | 42 | 212.3 | 1.10 | 7.8 | .02 | 16.0 |
| Justin Fields | 38 | 173.8 | 1.05 | 57.5 | .34 | 20.8 |
| Daniel Jones | 47 | 201.8 | .81 | 34.8 | .23 | 18.4 |
Two other guys near the top of this list that stand out for me are Joe Burrow and Russell Wilson. With Burrow, I expect I'll have him on some teams this year. Coming off injury, he's being undervalued in early drafts, I think. He runs a little, and he's going to have both JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins back, third-rounder Jermaine Burton, plus a couple of options at tight end in Mike Gesicki and rookie Erick All.
Wilson had a really nice thing going with Courtland Sutton last year, and in Seattle he had the great duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Now, in Pittsburgh, he has George Pickens, and that's an intriguing No. 1, but nothing else at the moment. And the threat of Justin Fields getting a shot, if Mike Tomlin gets tired of watching Wilson absorb critical sacks, holds his appeal down. (Not that Fields is great in that regard either.)
Anyway, back to Rodgers. Not a guy I'm really optimistic about, but I can't deny he's got some fantasy value if he actually stays on the field.
--Andy Richardson