Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Looking for this year's Puka Nacua. Quarterbacks who might throw 40 touchdowns. Chicago's jumbled running back situations. Strategies for best-ball leagues. And more.

Question 1

Last year I got Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua on waivers before season started as you were high on them. What young players have chance to be league winners this year?

Robert McKinlay (Belews Creek, NC)

While I appreciate the kind words, I don’t think they’re entirely accurate. I believe we had Cam Akers projected to be the best running back for the Rams last year. I think everyone did. Akers and Williams shared time in Week 1 at Seattle, and Williams took over after that game. And keep in mind that these kind of seasons are remarkably rare. In the 32-team era, only six rookie receivers drafted after the third round have put up top-30 numbers in their first season.

Three have come in the last 10 years. With Tyreek Hill, he fell in the draft because of a domestic violence incident that led to him being kicked off the Oklahoma State team. With Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nacua, there was some ability to see them coming down the pike. St. Brown was very productive at Southern Cal (falling because of lesser size/speed numbers) and was going to a team that didn’t have much else at the position. With Nacua, his talent became apparent during the preseason. There were 19 wide receivers selected after the third round this year; at this point, I don’t expect any of them to make a big impact.

Similarly with running backs, it’s rare to see a running back to go from zero to hero in his second season. In the last 20 years, only nine running backs selected after the first round have done essentially nothing in their first season (ranking outside top 50 in overall production) and then showed up in the top 20 in their second season.

If we define “this year’s Kyren Williams” as a back drafted after the fourth round who didn’t do much as a rookie, the most promising candidates would include Chase Brown, Israel Abanikanda and Chris Rodriguez. Of that group, Brown has the best chance of maybe sneaking into the top 20.

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Question 2

Last year only 4 quarterbacks threw for at least 30 touchdowns, with 36 leading the way. If any quarterback breaks out this year and throws 45, who do you think it is?

James Costello (Portland, ME)

Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are the two guys I’d be looking at. Mahomes underperformed last year, but I think they’ll get a lot of those issues ironed out. He threw only 27 touchdowns last year, but he was up at 38, 37 and 41 in his previous three seasons. With Burrow, I think it’s just about keeping people healthy. He threw 34 and 35 in the two seasons prior to last year, and he was operating above that level when he got hurt last year (with 12 TD passes in his last five games).

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Question 3

I typically like your product due to the reasoning you put into it. But I am struggling with the 7/22/24 update and the blurb on the Chicago Bears. I will preface this by saying I am a life-long Bears fan. You mention Khalil Herbert looks like a better pick than D'Andre Swift in your first sentence. I have to respectfully disagree. This will be Herbert's fourth year with the Bears. Last year they drafted Roschon Johnson in round four and also signed D'Onta Foreman in the offseason. This offseason they let Foreman walk and paid a lot of money to Swift to be their starting RB. As you mentioned, Herbert is not a great pass catcher and an even worse 3rd down pass blocking RB. The Bears don't trust him there. That job likely goes to Swift. And Johnson is the big bruiser near the goal-line ... so Herbert won't sniff those carries either. IMO, Herbert is likely their third RB in the rotation this year. And to take it further, I can definitely see them possibly trading Herbert to a team like the Cowboys who really appear to need an RB. So I would not be surprised at all if he is even on the Bears roster come opening day. Herbert's salary is very low so if no deal takes place then it make sense for the Bears to keep him as their (IMO) third back on the depth chart. Any thoughts on any of that?

Rick Cwik (Lemont, IL)

To clarify, Swift is higher than Herbert on our board. By “better pick”, we’re arguing that it makes a lot more sense to pick Herbert, giving the relative costs of the two. The current ADP suggests Swift will be the 20th running back chosen; I have zero interest in him at that price. Herbert is currently going 57th among running backs; that looks far more likely to be a pick that pay off at some point. I believe there will be weeks this year that Herbert is the back in Chicago. I wonder if Herbert is simply better than those other guys. He beat out Johnson and Foreman last year. I think he’s a good player. As you point out, there are some flaws, but he’s been an effective runner. Over the last two years, he’s averaged 5.1 yards per carry. That ranks 2nd among all running backs with at least 200 carries. I have a lot more interest in selecting Herbert as a depth running back rather than picking Swift with the expectation of him being a lesser starter.

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Question 4

My league allows for us to pick up a Keeper if he's remained on your team the entire previous year and was drafted in the 8th round or later. The only potential Keeper I have is Jordan Addison in the 8th round, who my custom rankings currently have ranked as the #96 overall player. I play in a 12-team league and I have the 4th pick in a snake draft, meaning he'll be the 92nd player drafted in this year. Our draft isn't until August 31st, and we have right up until the draft to decide if we want a Keeper or not. My question is, short of Justin Jefferson suffering some sort of injury in the preseason that will keep him out long term, would you keep Addison as a Keeper or throw him back in?

Brian Boyd (Maple Grove, MN)

I spent an hour today adjusting some of the overall supply/demand triggers on the website. Running backs seemed to be running a little high (on the overall list), so I tweaked some of the numbers. I wanted to bring the positional splits in the overall top 50 (QB-RB-WR-TE) more in line with what I’m seeing in ADP. With those changes, Addison might now be 5-10 spots higher on your board. Regardless, Addison ranks about 45th among receivers. That’s with a slight discount to address the possibility of him receiving a league suspension (otherwise I think he’d be about 40th). I’m guessing he’ll be a keeper, but let’s see where things stand in late August.

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Question 5

I’m a bit confused on Rashee Rice’s ranking. He’s WR18 on the redraft, but WR21 in dynasty. I would have anticipated his dynasty value would be higher. What am I missing?

Kyle Kintner (San Marcos, CA)

Agreed. That makes sense to me. With Rice, I’m just waiting to make sense of what kind of suspension will be handed down. He was a top-10 receiver at the end of last year. In his last 10 games (including the playoffs) he averaged 6.9 catches for 78 yards, with 4 TDs. So prior to the car-racing nonsense, I was queuing him up to be one of the top half-dozen receivers on my board. If he’s put on ice for a good chunk of the season, does he step right back into that kind of a role when he returns (both short-term and longer term)? Or does the offense evolve while he’s away? Maybe they hit on Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown or both. But agree with your point that the dynasty ranking looks a little low. I think he’ll appear just below Michael Pittman on the next version that’s published.

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Question 6

Looking into entering my first Best Ball league. Is there a way to adjust the custom rankings for Best Ball? Also, how does the draft strategy change and can you provide so help draft hints/tips?

dan renzi (Moorestown, NJ)

The draft board doesn’t change. As is, the players are ordered by expected overall production. But you should make more of an emphasis on building a ship that will hold water for the full 18 weeks. When in doubt, go with the player you think has a better chance of staying in the lineup for the full season. At quarterback, I like to pick two good ones – two that I think can stay on the field every week. I don’t want to use a third value pick on a quarterback (there are too many injuries at the other positions). At running back, I make more of an effort to “pair” backs than in a traditional draft. That is, if I pick Isiah Pacheco, I’ll be making more of an effort to land Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And if I’m selecting Zack Moss, I’ll definitely want to also pick Chase Brown. We’re trying to construct a roster that can field a lineup for the duration. If there’s some pairing of backs, it increases the potential of alignment between the missed or unproductive games from your front-line backs and the viable games from the lesser options. At wide receiver, some like to emphasize more explosive receivers, figuring that they’ll get in the lineup at some point by hitting on a big play, with their lesser weeks not mattering so much. I’m more of an oars-in-the-water guy myself. I’m looking more for guys with entrenched roles that I’m confident will stay in the lineup and catch some balls. There will be some good, usable games along the way (I don’t care so much whether the guy has a better chance of maybe catching a 70-yard touchdown). Mostly, pick good players. And keep going to the bitter end. No wasted picks on players from your alma mater or guys with the same last name as your girlfriend. Keep adding value. It’s a marathon, and you’ll need everyone.

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Question 7

Why weren't the kicker stats included this year? Also, I liked seeing the playoff stats as well. a good indicator how the players did after the regular season? So much for just bring my index and nothing else to the draft!

Rich Mascera (Roseland, NJ)

I will add you to the list of readers disappointed that the kicker stats weren’t included in the magazine. Those numbers, however, can be seen on the website. Use the “Resources” tab at the top of the page and pull down to “Free-with-magazine content”. With playoff boxes, however, I can’t do anything for you. (We actually ditched those a ways back – they haven’t appeared in the magazine since 2019.)(

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Question 8

Another rock-solid publication for 2024! One thing that appears to be missing on a regular basis: Players that will benefit because the actual defense on their team is below average or perhaps projected to be really bad. Blake Bortles in 2015 always comes to mind. Jacksonville gave up the most points in the NFL that year and Blake cashed in for a career high 35 touchdowns.

CURT THOMPSON (Castle Rock, CO)

Interesting theory. Not one I had thought of before. But I’m not sure that it’s viable. The chart below shows the 22 teams that have ranked last in scoring defense since the move to 32 teams in 2002. Only two of these teams ranked in the top 10 in scoring (the Saints, with Drew Brees and Sean Payton in their prime). Only two others ranked slightly above average in scoring. We could poke around more thoroughly in this area. Perhaps look at not just points but yards or maybe a combination of both. And we could look at not just the worst defenses but the average outcome of all 32 finishing outcomes. But the early lean is that there’s not much there.

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Question 9

I play in a keeper league where we get to keep three players, no loss of round value. PPR. This is TOUGH. Saqoun Barkley, Kyren Williams, Ja’Marr Chase, Johnathan Taylor. Who is the odd man out?

RON BEST (Church Point, LA)

Chase and Taylor definitely are on the team. The decision is Barkley or Williams. Barkley is the safer choice. Williams has more upside, I think, but also more potential to turn into a misfire.

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Question 10

About to jump in to the 19th season of an auction league, and I started with your magazine all those years ago, and it has been a successful run. So, thank you. I noticed that the 2024 print version does not have an experts' mock auction draft? If one might be available elsewhere, I'm all ears. If not, count me as a vote for bringing it back in 2025. Thank you for always writing a great magazine, and good luck this season!

David Bernhard (Cottage Grove, WI)

Thanks, Dave. I will keep an eye open for an auction league that can be dissected on the website. Could be a mixture of industry writers and knowledgeable readers. I’ve been doing an auction league with an credible enough group for a number of years, but we’re struggling to get enough guys.

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Question 11

I can only keep one these 3 players and I am in a Dynasty league: Cedric Tillman, Cole Kmet, Luke Musgrave. It is not necessary to have a tight end.

Dennis Ruebel (Fort Myers, FL)

Three modest guys, I think. We’re not talking about league winners. I will go with the one who’s shown some ability to play at a viable level. Kmet has caught 13 touchdowns in his last 27 games. He also caught 81 percent of the passes thrown his way last year, No. 1 among tight ends with at least 50 targets. And he’s got the best drop rate in the league among tight ends over the last two years (just 3 out of 126 catchable balls).

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