Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Fantasy Index missing the boat on Anthony Richardson? Breaking ties in fantasy football. Setting baselines when valuing players. Identifying the great quarterback of all time. And more.
Question 1
In the Internet Extra, you write that Colts QB Anthony Richardson is “near the top of any list of landscape-altering breakout players” and “he could be the next big thing at the position.” Agreed. But then you go on to say he’s not worth his ADP and advise us to let someone else take him. Granted, QB is deep, with plenty of serviceable options available late in the draft, but if Richardson is a “landscape-altering breakout player,” you won’t care where you drafted him. In my opinion, if you believe he’ll be a difference-maker, do whatever you have to do to get him on your team.
Paul Owers (Atlanta , GA)
Anthony Richardson might be one of the most productive few quarterbacks in the league. If it goes down that way, nobody will be complaining about how early they picked him. We can all agree on that point. But Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud to me all look like very safe choices to be very good quarterbacks. To me, it makes no sense to pick Richardson before any of those guys.
Question 2
I was wondering what you think is the best way to break ties in your fantasy leagues? We use bench points, but that seems too random with byes etc. and would love to hear some different ideas.
Damon Duhon (Baton Rouge, LA)
How about home-field advantage? In the event of a tie, the “home” team is awarded an extra point (and the win). Some league service websites might not offer a home and away component in their scheduling. If so, randomly number the teams in your league 1 thru 12. In odd-numbered weeks, the lower-numbered team is the home team (and the opposite for even-numbered weeks). (I wouldn’t be bothered if a team happened to play a couple more games at home, since it was randomly determined). Or maybe a reader has a better suggestion.
Question 3
Love the magazine, and I've been a faithful reader since the early 1990s. My question relates to Ian mellowing with age. Who can forget the classic lines from past editions? Such as when you wrote "Javon Walker's helmet doesn't get significantly smarter with his head inside of it" or referring to "skillet-handed Kyle Brady," or writing Troy Aikman will be in the Hall of Fame someday, but points aren't awarded for "spiral tightness." You have definitely mellowed -- and I respect that -- but are there still moments a really funny line comes to mind and you are tempted to just rip a player? I know the owners in my league kind of miss it.
John Grupp (Pittsburgh, PA)
This is a really good observation. There has been a decline in what we might call snarky or cheeky writing. Not intentionally, but I’ve dialed that back over the years. If you flip through the magazines of the last 10 years, I think more of that kind of flavor shows up in cutlines and headlines written by Les Campbell (or art director) or Bruce Taylor (our former editor). As the years have gone by, I have focused more on numbers – trying to get each projection right. I guess I’ve tried to become more of an analyst. And I don’t really spend much time anymore on movies, television or other sports, making me more limited in the pop culture categories. I suppose now I probably have more of a filter. There’s more weighing of whether the laughs a line might generate will outweigh the additional headaches. You take a shot at Harrison Butker or Aaron Rodgers, and no doubt a political discussion will follow. Earlier today, I was commenting on an article and mentioned Jordan Addison. I was toying with the idea of wondering if he would turn into another Henry Ruggs, or how many people would buy a pay-for-view of a car race between Addison and Rashee Rice. But I decided to just play it straight.
Question 4
Our league got into a friendly argument about the best QBs of all time (NFL wise, not fantasy). It’s not about Brady being #1, it’s about everyone else. I’m very number driven and not a “gut feel” type of person. We did all agree that postseason success should be a main factor. And it’s hard to weigh the supporting cast the QB has around them. Any thoughts on this would be very much appreciated!
CURT THOMPSON (Castle Rock, CO)
It’s tough measuring quarterbacks across eras, with the sports constantly evolving. No point in looking at overall number of yards or touchdowns. And I don’t think looking primarily at postseason wins will get you there either; in such a system, Bob Griese will come in well ahead of Dan Marino. That doesn’t smell right. If you want a numbers-driven methodology, I would recommend instead looking at the best eight seasons for each quarterback. For each of those seasons, you give the quarterback a rank of where he ranked among quarterbacks for that season. Troy Aikman, as an example, won three Super Bowls; you need to look at the 1992, 1993 and 1995 seasons and decide whether you think he was the best quarterback in those years. Inside those seasons, you can factor in stats, Pro Bowls, postseason success and whatnot. After that process is completed for the 10-20 quarterbacks you think merit consideration to be one of the best of all time, you can compare the best eight seasons for each guy. That should give you one numerical stab of measuring how they stack up against each other.
Question 5
What positional baselines are you using to generate the combined overall positional rankings on your STANDARD scoring cheat sheets? QBs seem WAY overvalued, with 7 ranked in the top 26 on the 7/21 update.
DONALD VANDENBORD (Saint Augustine, FL)
With our overall rankings, keep in mind that you the reader have the advantage of having boots on the ground. You have a better feel than we do for the behavior of the other owners in your league. If nobody in your league has selected a quarterback in the first three rounds in the last four years, best not to take a quarterback in the top 30. I’m working in a vacuum, assuming I’m operating against other owners that are similar to myself. With this in mind, our inside-the-position rankings are more reliable than those that cross positions. You’ll have a better feel for when the other owners in your league want to go after second tight ends, kickers and whatnot. I’ll also point out that shortly after the July 21 newsletter went out, I did an audit of the overall rankings for the major scoring systems. I look at each overall, then compared to what the ADP is suggesting. That is, I counted up the number of QB, RB, WR and TE going in the top 50 by ADP – what typical owners are doing. I then adjusted the baselines at each position so that the top 50s suggested in our custom scoring will be more similar to what actually should happen in a typical draft. (This will cause some changes in the overall-type rankings in players outside the top 50, but I figured those rankings aren’t as important.) Should you want to change the baseline dynamics, that’s best done by signing into the website and clicking on your name in the upper right corner. Click on the “edit your scoring profiles” link. Choose the “create a new scoring system” box. Click on the “Black Scoring System” box and drag down to the scoring system that you want to adjust. Once in there, you’ll find in the auction areas the number of players being selected at each position. To decrease the value of quarterback, reduce the number that will be sold for more than the $1 minimum.
Question 6
I have the 8th pick in a 12 team PPR league (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1FLX). Based on your rankings it seems like the optimal start is WR in round 1, then anchoring with a rb1 in round 2. Can you break down the risk and upside of RBs r2? I'm worried about Henry's age and carry history. (Pacheco, Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry James Cook, Travis Etienne)
Garrett Seymour (New Glarus, WI)
With just one quarterback, I think you can leave that position until later. You’re talking a pair of field position players. You’re drafting six of them. I don’t think there’s a requirement that one of your first two be a running back. With the 8th pick, I think you’ll be taking Amon-Ra St. Brown, Breece Hall, Puka Nacua or Bijan Robinson. (Robinson is actually the No. 9 player in terms of overall points, but with him being a running back, you may want to select him to make you more comfortable about possibly not selecting a running back in the next two rounds – and he should be a damn good player. At pick 17, the dream would be that Garrett Wilson or Jahmyr Gibbs is still around, but that’s unlikely. Might be Drake London. If running back, if you prefer younger, than maybe Rachaad White rather than Derrick Henry.
Question 7
What do you make of the schedule? It is very weird this year with lots (6) teams having 3 consecutive away games and ten with 3 consecutive home games. Some have both. I've never seen NFL schedulers do this. My question is why do you think they are now and do you see it as a reason to up or down grade guys from these teams?
Matt Morse (Glennallen, AK)
I don’t know that this is anything all that unusual. I played around with the numbers some. I believe since the move to 32 teams, there have been 301 instances where a team has played three straight at home or three straight on the road. That’s an average of about 14 per year. In my counting, I made no effort to parse out streaks including international games. That is, for each of those games in London or Germany, there’s a “home” team and an “away” team. In totaling, I counted those as home and away games. (For the Bills last year, for example, they hosted Miami, then traveled to London to “host” Jacksonville, then returned to play a host the Giants – that’s a 3-game home streak, using my counting). For the 80 teams since 2002 that have played three straight road games since 2002, they had a win-loss record of 34-46 in those third games, which doesn’t seem all that unusual.
Question 8
What are your thoughts on the elimination of the hip-drop tackle?
Roland Deschain (IL)
I don’t think it’s going to be an issue. Guys are still going to get tackled. Hopefully it will save a couple of injuries. If it causes a few players to sneak away for a few extra yards, I don’t think anybody will mind.
Question 9
Last year you hit on David Montgomery and Pacheco as guys you liked better than what other fantasy experts had them ranked. You also talked up Puka before the start of the regular season. What guys do you like this year in that same respect?
Brian Boyd (Maple Grove, MN)
At quarterback right now, I think Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford are those guys. At wide receiver, I would go into a draft expecting to pick Amari Cooper and Zay Flowers. At running back, remarkably, I think we’re way higher than Pacheco again this year.
Question 10
12-team PPR Keeper League. The dilemma comes down to either keeping Josh Allen in the 15th round on the Franchise Tag or two of the following: Zay Flowers in the 7th, Rachaad White in the 3rd, David Montgomery in the 4th and George Pickens in the 6th. What say you?
Anthony Cillis (Poughkeepsie, NY)
I don’t have the league bylaws in front of me. Can the franchise tag be used on any player? If I were drafting all 12 teams from scratch, White and Flowers would be picked before Allen. That might not age well (with Allen being a much better player than either) but they play harder-to-fill positions. So if I could franchise one of those players (with the cost then becoming a 15th-round pick), that would be the route I would take. The franchise tag is a tool; I would want to use it. If the options are only as offered, I would keep Allen. I think White will probably be a top-10 back, but I wouldn’t want to give up that third-round pick. If we’re picking from scratch, I think Flowers should go in the third round, making him the best value of the four field players. But Allen at essentially no cost is more appealing.
Question 11
PPR keeper league. I lose the pick that I selected these guys last year. I can only keep two. Jalen Hurts 4th. George Pickens 5th. Dalton Kincaid 10th Rashee Rice 9th. Jaylen Warren 11th round. The latest update has Kincaid close to both Warren, Pickens and Rice. Would just like some insight!
RON BEST (Church Point, LA)
I’d be looking for the biggest difference between where they are on the board now, versus where you picked them last year. If we’re drafting wide receivers, I would take Pickens before Rice. But Rice is a much better keeper because he comes with a fifth-round pick, while you only get a nice with Pickens. Kincaid, Rice and Warren are the three I’d be looking at. The Rice suspension issue, of course, looms large. If there’s no suspension, he’s definitely your No. 1 keeper. If there’s a lengthy suspension, then go with Kincaid and Warren.
Question 12
Do you have first half/second half season projections? I’d be interested to see which players you anticipate to have a strong finish to the season (rookies starting to click, guys coming off injury, etc.) and how they stack up against the guys anticipated to be starting from the get go. Since there’s only so many guys you can play, I’d rather have someone on my bench that I feel confident will become a starter for me later in the season than someone just okay for depth support. Thanks!
Kyle Kintner (San Marcos, CA)
We don’t have formalized such rankings, but the players who would appear slightly higher would tend to be rookies and players coming off injuries. Jonathon Brooks, Nick Chubb, T.J. Hockenson and Mike Williams are all coming off ACL injuries. They’d all be higher. Rashee Rice would be higher. Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy look pretty certain to begin the season as backup, but probably both will be starting in the second half of the season.
Question 13
Most of the leagues I play in award 6 pts for TD passes. Those 2 points per give QBs a significant positional advantage over the others in scoring, I'd think. My question is, does it tend to benefit drafters to go after the top QBs (say, any of the top 5 by Index reckoning) off the top, or is it still better to go for your skill position guys first? Thanks for your help.
Paul Desimone (Hayward, CA)
When we make touchdown passes worth 6 points, it makes all quarterbacks more valuable – not only the elite options, but also the lesser options you can get by waiting. It will still make some sense to ponder whether you can game the system by letting everyone else take their quarterbacks first, then picking up a couple of other options and hoping to hit on somebody. What happens, for example, if you hold your nose and select Deshaun Watson? If he gets back to playing like he did a few years back, you would be sitting pretty. Keep in mind with this role that it also works in favor of the pocket passers. Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff specifically, don’t do much as runners, but when their TD passes count just as much as the rushing touchdowns, it makes them look more palatable relative to running quarterbacks. Keep in mind, of course, that we publish rankings for this format. They’re not on the pdf file that is emailed out, but they can be seen on the website. Sign into the website. In the upper-right corner, click “your products”. Click on the most-recent player rankings. On the list you’ll find two different “6 points for TD passes” rankings – one for standard, and one for PPR. In the standard version, most of the quarterbacks move up a few spots in the overall. (Stafford is the biggest mover in the top 50, climbing from 49th to 35th).
| 6 FOR TD PASSES (overall ranks) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Std | 6 pts | Diff |
| P.Mahomes | 6 | 3 | +3 |
| J.Burrow | 8 | 4 | +4 |
| J.Allen | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| J.Hurts | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| J.Love | 20 | 15 | +5 |
| C.Stroud | 21 | 20 | +1 |
| B.Purdy | 23 | 23 | 0 |
| D.Prescott | 26 | 24 | +2 |
| L.Jackson | 30 | 26 | +4 |
| M.Stafford | 49 | 35 | +14 |
Question 14
I have been loving your products since 1988. Yours are the best value for the best methodology in the industry, IMHO. That said, I would love to see the custom scoring system options expanded on the website's generated cheat sheets. Sorry for the long question, but the explanation is needed: I am in an old guy league that is TD + Bonuses, but the bonuses are based on all-purpose yardage. The custom scoring profiles only allow for points to be earned by receiving or rushing separately. When the scoring system is so frugal (diplomatic word choice), it magnifies the difference it makes. e.g. If Breece Hall goes for 75 rush and 25 rec in a game, he would get 2pts in our league (2pts @ 100yds all-purpose yards). All I can set is 1pt for 50yds of each or 2pt bonus at 100yds of each. If I set it at 1 for 50, he gets overvalued, if I set it at 100 for rush or rec, he gets undervalued. The difference between those two settings is about a 20% swing in his yearly projected points. 20% difference for each player renders the tool fairly inaccurate, I would say. If the system allowed for all-purpose yds (like other online services I have seen), then it would be an even better product.
Shaun Hawkins (Albany, GA)
I’m not positive, but I’m guessing you’re in a league where a player only gets credit if he reaches a threshold. That is, if Breece Hall finishes with 95 yards, he gets nothing. If he finishes with 105 yards, he gets 2 points. If so, the math (for projecting and database purposes) gets a lot more complex. Under our current system, we’re set up to measure every yard. That is, you put in that you want Breece Hall to get 1 point for every 50 rushing yards and 1 point for every 50 receiving yards. So if he’s projected to average 95 total yards, he would get 1.9 points. If he’s projected to generate 105 yards, he would get 2.1 points. That’s the way it’s currently operating. In a threshold system, a lot of probabilities factor in. When a player is projected to average 70, 80 or 90 yards per game, how many times might we expect him to outperform that average, reaching the 100-yard trigger to bonus? I think those are difficult questions to answer, particularly with the trigger levels varying from league to league. It’s 100 yards in your league. It might be 80 or 120 in another league, or it might include only rushing yards in a third. I would be surprised if there’s any website that’s been able to pull off a decent stab at addressing all of the various probability issues, then been able to program it into some kind of interface that users can understand and work with. For our purposes, I think we’ll do better by focusing on the players. We’re trying to create a draft list. We have projected yardage totals for each player, along with ability to credit those players for each of those yards. We’ve carefully noted which wide receivers will pick up a few yards on end-arounds. If you got to the website and punch in .02 points for each rushing yard and .02 points for each receiving yard (or 1 point for each 50 of either, it doesn’t matter) that will get your where you want to go.