Fantasy football often lets you make early calls on some things. For example, it's looking like we were wrong to be low on DeVon Achane, and right to be high on James Cook. It's also looking like reports of the Bills' demise were greatly exaggerated.
Last night's game was an ugly one for several reasons, and I don't think it needs too much of a deep dive. But some NFL and fantasy thoughts on the proceedings, broken down by position.
QUARTERBACKS
So Tua Tagovailoa getting concussed on a scramble in the third quarter is the big development. It was scary and the last thing you want to see watching a football game. The play itself, which most have probably seen by now, didn't look especially intense -- there was no big collision or punishing hit. Just Tua coming up against a defender who stepped into his path and dropping like a ton of bricks. I don't know what this will mean for his NFL future, but from a competitive standpoint the Dolphins probably should have lined up a more accomplished backup than Skylar Thompson. Briefly on Tua's 3 interceptions, the first one definitely wasn't on him (hit the receiver in the shoulder), the second was arguable (overthrow or bad route, hard to say) and the third, the Pick Six, was a disastrous attempt at a throwaway reminiscent of Will Levis' Week 1 game-loser. But picking on Tagovailoa's performance flaws is beside the point today. Very good quarterback when healthy.
Quiet game for Josh Allen, who threw an easy touchdown on Buffalo's opening possession and really didn't have to do much after that. There was an early fumble on a shotgun snap that raised discussion of whether his left hand, injured on a scramble last week, was OK, but it looked like he just was distracted on the snap rather than hurt. He's got 10 days to rest up, and there will presumably be more games like Week 1 than last night.
RUNNING BACKS
So our reservations about DeVon Achane involved expecting a committee backfield, in which another back, presumably Raheem Mostert, scored most of the short touchdowns, like last year. Still considered Achane the best back in standard and PPR scoring for his passing game role and vastly superior big play potential, but where he was being selected in every draft, you don't have him if you went with our rankings. Two weeks in, Mostert is hurt, Achane has scored 2 TDs from inside the 5-yard line, and he's caught 7 passes for 60-70 yards in each game. It's a long season, but those with Achane can enjoy their early victory laps. Fair to wonder what Achane was doing on the field with 5 minutes left in a 31-10 contest, but I guess he's fully healthy.
Jeff Wilson got 2 touches before also leaving with an injury last night. Jaylen Wright carried 5 times for just 4 yards, although he looked better than that -- two of his first four touches went for 8 and 10 yards, although one was erased by a penalty. If you have Wright, do not drop him, especially with Miami apparently having only two healthy backs right now.
On the plus side, we were higher than most on James Cook, and he sure looked good last night. (And Miami's run defense looked terrible.) Sadly I passed him up in the fourth round of an important league for some reason that escapes me now. something I'll apparently be kicking myself about all season. Ray Davis wasn't quite as effective (9 for 29), but he looked OK and should continue to get some work in the offense. But Cook looks like a really nice weekly starter.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Khalil Shakir was one of our guys, and I have no regrets. Sweet touchdown in Week 1, and the only involved Bills wideout last night. Modest final numbers (5 for 54), but most of that came before halftime, after which Buffalo called off the dogs. Had the game been more competitive I think it's fair to say we'd have got an 8 for 80 game, at a minimum, out of Shakir. He's their No. 1. Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman played a little more but didn't catch a pass; just one target apiece. Obviously Allen only attempted 19 passes, which will not be the usual case. Curtis Samuel didn't play much and appears to be the No. 4 right now.
You can't really talk about the Miami wide receivers without mentioning the quarterback situation. I think Tyreek Hill can produce at least decent numbers with me throwing him the football, but he wouldn't be a top-3 fantasy pick. Jaylen Waddle would/will definitely suffer with a backup quarterback. Miami remarkably might have the worst wide receiver depth in the league; they're in the discussion. I know several guys are hurt, but the fact that Braxton Berrios (nearly half the snaps without catching a pass) former Green Bay seventh-rounder Grant Dubose and Robbie Chosen/Andrews/whatever were the No. 3-4-5 guys last night -- and Dubose and Chosen the targets on the first two interceptions -- is quite damning.
TIGHT ENDS
The Bills clearly wanted to get Dalton Kincaid involved from the get-go. He caught Allen's first two passes last night. Just 2 more after that, but on a night when Allen completed only 13 passes, 4 for 33 is nothing too feel bad about.
In the preseason we talked about the involvement of Jonnu Smith, noteworthy since Miami did absolutely nothing with the tight end position in recent years. That showed up last night, with Smith catching 6 passes for 53 yards. By comparison, Durham Smythe last year had 11 catches through the first seven weeks of the season. Those in TE-premium leagues can definitely add Smith, especially with Miami not seeming to have a viable No. 3 wideout at the moment.
MISCELLANEOUS
Buffalo let a lot of offensive and defensive players go in the offseason. Maybe last night gives you some pause when looking at the receiving corps (though Shakir looks legit). But their defense looked pretty good, aside from not having any kind of answer for Achane's speed. Maybe Aaron Rodgers develops some mobility and the Jets hang around for a while, but it kind of looks like Buffalo is the class of the AFC East. (The schedule makers did the Bills no favors, though: after hosting Jacksonville in Week 3, the Bills were given a three-game road trip to Baltimore, Houston and the Jets -- dang.)
As for Miami. They also lost some defensive players in the offseason, and based on last night, they're gonna miss them. Certainly their offense's turnovers didn't help, but their efforts against Cook were not good. And there's no getting around that this team is going nowhere without Tua. Which it seems very possible/likely is what the future holds.
--Andy Richardson
