I’m getting tired of waiting for Kyle Pitts. We’re getting close to the point where I think it’s safe to conclude he’s not going to develop into a difference maker who’s a top-5 player at his position year in and year out.
The Falcons have a better quarterback now, along with a new coaching staff. And he’s fully healthy, the knee injury that derailed him in 2022 now well in the rearview mirror. But there’s been no big launch so far. He’s caught 3 passes in both of his first two games, with fewer than 30 yards in both of them.
When the Falcons selected him with the fourth pick of the 2021 draft, Penei Sewell and Ja’Marr Chase were still on the board. That’s looking like a massive oversight.
The Falcons have Kansas City on Sunday night, and that’s seems to be a particularly important game for Pitts. That defense thus far has been in the worst in the league against tight ends, with both Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki having huge games against them.
Kansas City, in fact, is just the 16th team in the last 10 years to allow tight ends to have games of 90-plus yards in back-to-back weeks.
| DEFENSES ALLOWING 90-PLUS YARDS TO TWO STRAIGHT TIGHT ENDS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Defense | 1st tight end | Stats | 2nd tight end | Stats |
| 2015 | NY Giants | Jordan Reed, Was. | 6-96-0 | Charles Clay, Buff. | 9-111-0 |
| 2015 | Tampa Bay | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 8-90-2 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 7-131-1 |
| 2015 | Washington | Zach Miller, Chi. | 5-107-2 | Crockett Gillmore, Balt. | 5-101-0 |
| 2016 | Buffalo | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 5-109-1 | Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 8-103-2 |
| 2016 | NY Giants | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 8-97-0 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 3-96-0 |
| 2016 | Tennessee | Greg Olsen, Car. | 5-122-1 | Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 6-100-1 |
| 2017 | St. Louis | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 8-93-0 | Gerald Everett, LAR | 3-95-0 |
| 2018 | Minnesota | George Kittle, S.F. | 5-90-0 | Jimmy Graham, G.B. | 6-95-0 |
| 2018 | Oakland | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 11-94-0 | Vance McDonald, Pitt. | 4-112-1 |
| 2019 | Arizona | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 6-131-1 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 8-112-1 |
| 2019 | Dallas | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 12-111-0 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 9-91-1 |
| 2019 | Oakland | Greg Olsen, Car. | 6-110-0 | Evan Engram, NYG | 6-113-1 |
| 2021 | Baltimore | Darren Waller, L.V. | 10-105-1 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 7-109-1 |
| 2022 | Tampa Bay | George Kittle, S.F. | 4-93-2 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 6-113-0 |
| 2023 | Oakland | Evan Engram, Jac. | 10-95-0 | Juwan Johnson, N.O. | 8-90-1 |
| 2024 | Kansas City | Isaiah Likely, Balt. | 9-111-1 | Mike Gesicki, Cin. | 7-91-0 |
(As an interesting statistical aside, half of these streaks occurred in the first three weeks of the season – teams going to tight ends early.)
But more importantly, it makes sense to run a check on what tends to happen to such defenses. That’s the position, after all, that Pitts is in –facing a seemingly tight end leaky defense.
Of these 15 previous defenses, none allowed 90-plus yards for a third straight week, but they allowed 55 catches for 699 yards and 7 TDs to the tight end playing against them. Over half of these tight ends either scored or caught at least 6 passes (or both). That’s a decent hit rate, and I have those guys tagged with black dots (6 catches seems noteworthy, since that would put a player over 100 catches for a season if playing in all 17 games).
I’m not a big Pitts fan, but I would generally be inclined to let him have a shot against this defense.
| THIRD TIME'S A CHARM TIGHT ENDS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | Result | No | Yards | TD | PPR |
| 2015 | • Garrett Celek, S.F. | at NYG | L 27-30 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2015 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | Sea. | L 3-20 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 2015 | • Tyler Eifert, Cin. | St.L. | W 31-7 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 13.1 |
| 2016 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | Buff. | L 12-16 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 2016 | • Zach Miller, Chi. | at NYG | L 16-22 | 3 | 61 | 1 | 15.1 |
| 2016 | • Jason Witten, Dall. | at S.F. | W 24-17 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 2017 | • Jared Cook, Oak. | at Was. | L 10-28 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 2018 | Charles Clay, Buff. | at Min. | W 27-6 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 2018 | • Trey Burton, Chi. | T.B. | W 48-10 | 2 | 86 | 1 | 16.6 |
| 2019 | • Greg Olsen, Car. | at Ari. | W 38-20 | 6 | 75 | 2 | 25.5 |
| 2019 | Hale Hentges, Was. | at Dall. | L 16-47 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 10.2 |
| 2019 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | T.B. | L 40-55 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 8.1 |
| 2021 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | Balt. | L 17-19 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 2022 | • Tyler Conklin, NYJ | at Sea. | L 6-23 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 2023 | Tommy Tremble, Car. | T.B. | L 0-9 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2024 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | K.C. | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
—Ian Allan
