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Factoid

Running on empty

Colts giving up rushing production at record pace

You’ve gotta love D’Andre Swift’s matchup. As poorly as the Colts have played, top-10 numbers seem like a possibility. But I wonder if he’s getting this defense a week too late.

That is, the Indianapolis run defense has been so awful that you’ve got to figure the alarm bells are blaring at the team facility. They’ve allowed a 150-yard rusher in each of their first two games, something that’s never been done before.

The Colts have allowed the most rushing yards through two weeks in NFL history. Gus Bradley is the Will Levis of defensive coordinators – if he doesn’t fix things soon, he won’t make it to the end of October. They’ll be making adjustments in practice this week, or at least trying something different.

Similarly, Carolina and the LA Rams have been gashed by the run in the first two weeks, allowing almost 200 yards per game. Zamir White gets the Panthers this week, looking primed for his first good game. And Jordan Mason looks like a strong candidate for a third straight 100-yard game at Los Angeles.

Not quite on this level, but the Bengals have been pretty crappy against the run. I think the Commanders, with the Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson running combo, could cause some problems for them on Monday night.

All of which has me wondering: When a team is really bad against the run early, how many of those teams end up being bad for the duration? That is, when a team can’t stop the run in September, have many of them continue to be awful in November and December?

Consider the chart below. It shows the teams in the 32-team era that have allowed at least 360 rushing yards in the first two weeks – 180-plus per game. I then meshed that data with how the defense ended up finishing.

In the final three columns, I’m showing the average rushing yards per game, along with the number of touchdowns scored on runs (16-game seasons for some defenses, and 17 for others). The “rank” number shows where the defense ranked among the 32 defenses in that season, using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

Five of the 26 defenses ended up ranking above-average against the run. The 2023 Steelers and 2006 Panthers both ranked 8th in run defense, and three other defenses likely would have ranked in the top 10 if not for those poor efforts in their first two games.

Fifteen of the 26 defenses went on to rank in the bottom 10 in run defenses.

I take this to mean that most NFL teams are going to recognize their flaws and start working on them. With these bottom-feeder run defenses – Colts, Panthers, Rams – I think we’ve seen them at their worst already.

Nowhere to go but up, as they say.

DEFENSES STRUGGLING AGAINST THE RUN EARLY
YearDefense(first two G)Yds/GTDRRk
2002• Seattle75-470-3152.61832
2003Chicago81-364-3116.61318
2003Cleveland56-410-2132.11422
2004Kansas City75-375-3114.61822
2006Carolina80-392-0108.6108
2006Tampa Bay78-409-2119.81113
2007Jacksonville74-364-2100.31213
2008Cincinnati87-406-3120.11521
2008• Indianapolis75-362-2122.91824
2008• Kansas City75-426-3158.92531
2008• Detroit72-441-4172.13132
2009Houston67-430-4106.91719
2009• Cleveland74-411-5144.61527
2010• Indianapolis67-377-3127.01424
2012• New Orleans84-372-5147.61831
2013Washington73-402-3110.61111
2014• Oakland80-400-2119.41726
2017• NY Jets69-370-4117.91323
2019• Miami81-389-4135.41526
2020Cincinnati74-370-4148.01323
2020• Detroit63-408-2134.92730
2020• Houston71-396-2160.32432
2021Kansas City67-404-7117.61519
2022• Chicago75-379-2157.33132
2023Pittsburgh69-386-2115.198
2023• Cincinnati77-384-2134.11726
2024Indianapolis93-474-1???
2024Carolina81-399-3???
2024LA Rams71-394-3???

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index