Story yesterday that Lions wideout Jameson Williams won't face league discipline for carrying an unlicensed firearm, after avoiding criminal charges. He'll be good to go for the start of next season. Williams is a reminder to be careful who you give up on.
Entering the season, I wasn't particularly optimistic about Williams' chances of making a big impact this year. His first two seasons, marred by an injury recovery and league suspension, were both pretty modest. But year 3 breakouts happen, and it certainly did for Williams, who went on to catch 58 passes for 1,001 yards with 8 total touchdowns in 2024.
I wondered how often it happens for 1st-round wideouts, with those players doing relatively little in their first two seasons, then breaking out with strong seasons in year 3. If it can happen for Williams, maybe it will happen in 2025 for former Chargers first-rounder Quentin Johnston.
It can be debated how to define "relatively little," but I went with first-round wide receivers from the last 20 years who failed to reach 800 receiving yards in either of their first two seasons. How have those guys fared in year 3?
There were 35 wide receivers selected in the first round the past 20 years who met the criteria, failing to reach 800 yards in either of their first two seasons. Not all of them were being discussed as busts, since some of them missed time due to injury and some fell only just short. But, 35 wideouts who didn't reach that total.
Of those players, five -- including Williams -- went over 1,000 yards in year 3. Two of them went on to have noteworthy careers: Demaryius Thomas and Roddy White. Marquise Brown and Mike Williams have at least been quality players, when on the field. And Jameson seems to have arrived.
Two others (Derrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Crabtree) at least reached that 800 yard plateau. So in total, 20 percent of these players (7 of 35) had a degree of NFL success and/or hung around the league for a while. (Heyward-Bey, certainly, was a disappointment, while Crabtree at least had a couple of 1,000-yard seasons.)
I see another guy who still hasn't got there (Rashod Bateman), but he did have a pretty nice season for Baltimore, going for 756 yards with 9 TDs.
But the vast majority of the list is pretty ugly. I count 23 of them that never amounted to anything in the NFL, some due to injury but most due to underperformance. Everyone knows the names: Kevin White, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson. The most recent disappointments (last five years) that are either already out of the league or headed there include Jalen Reagor, Kadarius Toney and Treylon Burks.
Johnston at least showed potential at times last season. Just short of 800 receiving yards, plus he caught 8 TDs. Seems like someone who could go either way in 2025. Jameson did it, so maybe Johnston will be the next one. Granted, his last game was bad (shutout on 5 targets in the playoff loss at Houston), but the entire Chargers team struggled in that one. He caught 13 passes the previous week, at Las Vegas. A game to build on.
| 1ST-RD WRS, UNDER 800 YARDS EACH OF 1ST 2 SEASONS, 2005-PRESENT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Pk | Player | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
| 2010 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22-283-2 | 32-551-4 | 94-1434-10 |
| 2005 | 27 | Roddy White, Atl. | 29-446-3 | 30-506-0 | 83-1202-6 |
| 2019 | 25 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 46-584-7 | 58-769-8 | 91-1008-6 |
| 2017 | 7 | Mike Williams, LAC | 11-95-0 | 43-664-11 | 49-1001-2 |
| 2022 | 12 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 1-41-1 | 24-354-3 | 58-1001-8 |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 9-124-1 | 26-366-1 | 64-975-4 |
| 2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 48-625-2 | 55-741-6 | 72-874-4 |
| 2015 | 20 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23-283-1 | 36-365-2 | 62-768-8 |
| 2007 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 0-0-0 | 12-289-4 | 45-722-9 |
| 2015 | 14 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 26-494-3 | 56-744-4 | 57-670-1 |
| 2016 | 22 | Josh Doctson, Wash. | 2-66-0 | 35-502-6 | 44-532-2 |
| 2017 | 9 | John Ross, Cin. | 0-0-0 | 21-210-7 | 28-506-3 |
| 2016 | 21 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47-635-3 | 28-423-7 | 32-503-4 |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 40-418-6 | 31-242-3 | 52-473-10 |
| 2007 | 9 | Ted Ginn Jr., Mia. | 34-420-3 | 56-790-4 | 38-454-1 |
| 2021 | 27 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 46-515-1 | 15-285-2 | 32-367-1 |
| 2005 | 21 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 36-432-5 | 41-643-4 | 24-317-4 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 1-15-0 | 20-200-0 | 35-302-1 |
| 2009 | 30 | Kenny Britt, Tenn. | 42-701-3 | 42-775-9 | 17-289-3 |
| 2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson, Minn. | 24-372-2 | 37-455-0 | 18-240-1 |
| 2022 | 16 | Jahan Dotson, Wash. | 35-523-7 | 49-518-4 | 19-216-0 |
| 2015 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18-225-1 | 33-528-2 | 12-194-0 |
| 2019 | 32 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 12-105-2 | 33-309-2 | 12-184-0 |
| 2021 | 20 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 39-420-0 | 16-171-3 | 27-169-1 |
| 2020 | 21 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 31-396-2 | 33-299-2 | 8-104-1 |
| 2012 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 0-0-0 | 8-130-0 | 9-93-0 |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams, Det. | 29-350-1 | 8-99-1 | 7-90-0 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0-0-0 | 33-499-3 | 10-77-0 |
| 2016 | 15 | Corey Coleman, Clev. | 33-413-3 | 23-305-2 | 5-71-0 |
| 2007 | 30 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 20-188-1 | 4-59-0 | 6-52-0 |
| 2022 | 18 | Treylon Burks, Tenn. | 33-444-2 | 16-221-0 | 4-34-0 |
| 2011 | 26 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 21-254-1 | 20-325-1 | 3-28-0 |
| 2013 | 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 45-469-9 | 33-384-2 | 2-10-2 |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0-0-0 | 19-187-0 | 2-6-0 |
| 2007 | 32 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 37-576-3 | 57-664-4 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023 | 21 | Quentin Johnston, LAC | 38-431-2 | 55-711-8 | ?-?-? |
| 2020 | 12 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 26-452-2 | 24-469-2 | Out of league |
| 2024 | 9 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 54-734-3 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? |
| 2024 | 28 | Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 59-638-9 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? |
| 2024 | 32 | Xavier Legette, Car. | 49-497-4 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? |
| 2024 | 31 | Ricky Pearsall, S.F. | 31-400-3 | ?-?-? | ?-?-? |
Table includes the four first-round wideouts from last year who failed to reach 800 yards as rookies (Odunze, Worthy, Legette, Pearsall). Too soon to worry about any of those guys; Worthy -- with 9 TDs and a strong postseason -- certainly looks fine. Odunze dealt with a crowded receiving corps in Chicago, while Legette (injury) and Pearsall (shot) had extenuating circumstances. None of the four will necessarily still be on this list a year from now.
--Andy Richardson