Somebody picked up Shedeur Sanders in my dynasty league today. I get it, he was viewed as a first-round draft pick just a few weeks ago. Instead he fell to the fifth, and a team that had already drafted a quarterback.
While certainly the best known, Sanders was not the only quality college quarterback to land with an NFL team in one of the later rounds of the draft this year. The Steelers took Ohio State's Will Howard (pictured) in the sixth, and their present quarterback situation is no better than Cleveland's. The Dolphins took Texas' Quinn Ewers in the 7th. Is there any hope for these guys?
Ian's run some recent articles on late-round running backs, here's a quarterback version from the last 20 years. That math of course cuts off the most successful sixth-rounder quarterback in history, Tom Brady, but gives us a reasonable number of players.
Table shows all the quarterbacks selected in the 5th, 6th or 7th rounds, or undrafted, in the last 20 years who had at least one top-45 season at the position. (It's a pretty low bar; there aren't many fantasy leagues where the 40th-best quarterback has value.) The numbers shown are from their best NFL seasons. Table is sorted by ranking that year in a typical scoring system.
From those last 20 years, we've got 9 guys who have had at least one top-20 season. Of those nine, nearly as many were undrafted (2) as were selected in the fifth or sixth rounds (3), where Sanders and Howard were drafted.
Of the 43 quarterbacks to finish with a top-45 season, about 40 percent of them (17) were undrafted.
| LATE-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, BEST SEASONS (2005-2024) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Rd | Best | Player | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
| 2005 | 6 | 2007 | Derek Anderson, Cle. | 3787 | 29 | 70 | 3 | 5 |
| 2022 | 7 | 2023 | Brock Purdy, S.F. | 4280 | 31 | 144 | 2 | 7 |
| 2005 | 7 | 2008 | Matt Cassel, N.E. | 3693 | 21 | 270 | 2 | 8 |
| 2005 | 7 | 2011 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff. | 3832 | 24 | 215 | 0 | 11 |
| 2022 | 5 | 2023 | Sam Howell, Was. | 3946 | 21 | 263 | 5 | 11 |
| 2007 | 7 | 2008 | Tyler Thigpen, K.C. | 2608 | 18 | 386 | 4 | 12 |
| 2012 | FA | 2017 | Case Keenum, Min. | 3547 | 22 | 160 | 1 | 15 |
| 2011 | 6 | 2015 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 3035 | 20 | 568 | 4 | 18 |
| 2018 | FA | 2021 | Taylor Heinicke, Was. | 3419 | 20 | 313 | 1 | 19 |
| 2019 | 6 | 2023 | Gardner Minshew, Ind. | 3305 | 15 | 100 | 3 | 21 |
| 2007 | FA | 2011 | Matt Moore, Mia. | 2497 | 16 | 65 | 2 | 23 |
| 2009 | FA | 2014 | Brian Hoyer, Cle. | 3326 | 12 | 39 | 0 | 25 |
| 2019 | FA | 2023 | Jake Browning, Cin. | 1936 | 12 | 127 | 3 | 26 |
| 2015 | 7 | 2016 | Trevor Siemian, Den. | 3401 | 18 | 57 | 0 | 26 |
| 2018 | FA | 2019 | Kyle Allen, Car. | 3322 | 17 | 106 | 2 | 27 |
| 2010 | 5 | 2011 | John Skelton, Ari. | 1913 | 11 | 128 | 0 | 29 |
| 2012 | FA | 2014 | Austin Davis, St.L. | 2001 | 12 | 36 | 0 | 30 |
| 2015 | 5 | 2017 | Brett Hundley, G.B. | 1836 | 9 | 270 | 2 | 30 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 1661 | 9 | 161 | 0 | 30 |
| 2017 | FA | 2020 | Taysom Hill, N.O. | 928 | 4 | 457 | 9 | 30 |
| 2017 | FA | 2020 | Nick Mullens, S.F. | 2437 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 32 |
| 2017 | FA | 2024 | Cooper Rush, Dall. | 1844 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 33 |
| 2005 | 5 | 2008 | Dan Orlovsky, Det. | 1616 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 33 |
| 2009 | 6 | 2011 | Curtis Painter, Ind. | 1541 | 6 | 107 | 0 | 34 |
| 2023 | FA | 2023 | Tommy DeVito, NYG | 1101 | 8 | 195 | 1 | 34 |
| 2007 | 5 | 2010 | Troy Smith, S.F. | 1176 | 5 | 121 | 1 | 35 |
| 2020 | FA | 2021 | Tyler Huntley, Balt. | 1081 | 3 | 294 | 2 | 36 |
| 2016 | 6 | 2018 | Jeff Driskel, Cin. | 1003 | 6 | 130 | 2 | 37 |
| 2019 | FA | 2019 | Devlin Hodges, Pitt. | 1063 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 38 |
| 2018 | 5 | 2022 | Mike White, NYJ | 1192 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 38 |
| 2014 | 6 | 2014 | Zach Mettenberger, Ten. | 1412 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 38 |
| 2015 | 5 | 2015 | AJ McCarron, Cin. | 854 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 39 |
| 2019 | FA | 2019 | David Blough, Det. | 984 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 39 |
| 2009 | 5 | 2018 | Josh Johnson, Was. | 590 | 3 | 120 | 1 | 39 |
| 2013 | FA | 2013 | Matt McGloin, Oak. | 1547 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 40 |
| 2012 | 6 | 2012 | Ryan Lindley, Ari. | 752 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 40 |
| 2019 | 5 | 2023 | Easton Stick, LAC | 1129 | 3 | 144 | 1 | 41 |
| 2008 | 7 | 2013 | Matt Flynn, 3TM | 1392 | 8 | 65 | 0 | 41 |
| 2024 | 5 | 2024 | Spencer Rattler, N.O. | 1317 | 4 | 146 | 0 | 41 |
| 2011 | FA | 2011 | T.J. Yates, Hou. | 949 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 41 |
| 2016 | 6 | 2020 | Brandon Allen, Cin. | 925 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 42 |
| 2010 | 6 | 2011 | Joe Webb, Min. | 376 | 3 | 154 | 2 | 42 |
| 2010 | FA | 2018 | Chase Daniel, Chi. | 515 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 44 |
Glancing over the list, I see just two really successful quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brock Purdy. In terms of a career, certainly FitzMagic is the best, but Purdy could one day surpass him. Derek Anderson had one good season, and it was a really good one, but not accurate to call him "really successful" -- just 20-29 for his career. But he proved he belonged. Matt Cassel and Gardner Minshew are also guys who delivered solid production for a stretch (but if you pick up Sanders somewhere, you're hoping for a lot more).
Regardless, clearly the odds are not great that Sanders, Howard et al will ever do much in the NFL.
--Andy Richardson