Much has been made over the years about the dreaded 'quarterback drafted in the second round'. Drew Lock, DeShone Kizer, Christian Hackenberg - it's become quite the scarlet letter. Turns out the wideouts haven't fared a whole heck of a lot better!
Keon Coleman and Roman Wilson currently find themselves with golden opportunities for a second-year statistical surge: George Pickens is Jerry Jones' problem now, and Amari Cooper is a longshot to be back in Buffalo. Neither Buffalo nor Pittsburgh did much of anything at wide receiver in last month's draft; that means target shares are there for the taking.
Of course, Wilson was AWOL for his entire rookie season, and Coleman missed a big chunk of time with a wrist injury right as he was starting to put together some decent games. Comparatively, University of Washington alum and fellow Day 2 selection Jalen McMillan closed his rookie season on a much higher note. Subbing in for the injured Chris Godwin, once he finally kicked his own injury woes, McMillan turned into something of a league winner, stringing together a five-week run to close out 2024 that saw him log 24 catches for 316 yards and an eye-popping seven touchdowns. He was the overall WR5 from Week 14 thru 18.
McMillan's reward for helping Tampa close out the NFC South last December? The Bucs re-signed impending free agent Chris Godwin (granted, they had heavy salary cap incentives to do so), and followed that by using their first round pick on the highly touted Emeka Egbuka last month. All that to say that while none of them have an 'I'm going nuclear in 2025!' blinking neon sign over their head, the three of McMillan, Coleman and Wilson are some of the better bets from last year's Day 2 receiver crop to take a step forward from their rookie numbers toward weekly fantasy relevance this fall.
I was curious what recent history would tell us on guys like these, so I pulled together the numbers on all of the rookie wide receivers taken in either the second or third round of the NFL Draft since 2017, and then drilled down on just the ones who averaged 3-6 targets per game as rookies (Roman Wilson didn't draw a single target as a rookie and doesn't qualify for this exercise, I just wanted to talk about him). I wanted to see how wide receivers with good-not-great draft capital that were running as the second or third receiver on their teams as rookies fared in their sophomore seasons, and the results were definitely interesting. Bold for the guys who clocked a top 35 finish as a sophomore, italics for the guys who fell back out of the top 35 after making it as a rookie.
| Day 2 Rookie WRs, 3-6 Targets/Game | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgts/Game | Rk | Next Yr Rk |
| 2023 | Jayden Reed | 5.9 | 23 | 26 |
| 2023 | Josh Downs | 5.8 | 46 | 36 |
| 2019 | Diontae Johnson | 5.8 | 42 | 23 |
| 2023 | Jonathan Mingo | 5.7 | 84 | 132 |
| 2018 | Christian Kirk | 5.7 | 58 | 40 |
| 2020 | Laviska Shenault | 5.6 | 47 | 61 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5.6 | 16 | 8 |
| 2019 | Deebo Samuel | 5.4 | 31 | 97 |
| 2018 | James Washington | 5.3 | 51 | 72 |
| 2018 | Courtland Sutton | 5.3 | 50 | 19 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown | 5.3 | 15 | 12 |
| 2022 | Wan'Dale Robinson | 5.2 | 117 | 54 |
| 2017 | Zay Jones | 4.9 | 85 | 34 |
| 2022 | Alec Pierce | 4.9 | 60 | 72 |
| 2022 | George Pickens | 4.9 | 37 | 26 |
| 2020 | Michael Pittman | 4.7 | 81 | 15 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | 4.7 | 34 | 65 |
| 2021 | Rondale Moore | 4.6 | 73 | 88 |
| 2024 | Jalen McMillan | 4.5 | 50 | ? |
| 2021 | Nico Collins | 4.4 | 88 | 78 |
| 2024 | Keon Coleman | 4.4 | 68 | ? |
| 2023 | Michael Wilson | 4.4 | 60 | 61 |
| 2020 | K.J. Hamler | 4.3 | 87 | 169 |
| 2018 | Michael Gallup | 4.3 | 76 | 21 |
| 2018 | Dante Pettis | 3.8 | 68 | 128 |
| 2018 | Anthony Miller | 3.6 | 57 | 59 |
| 2022 | Tyquan Thornton | 3.5 | 100 | 146 |
| 2017 | Chris Godwin | 3.4 | 68 | 26 |
| 2024 | Adonai Mitchell | 3.2 | 113 | ? |
| 2023 | Cedric Tillman | 3.1 | 119 | 91 |
A lot to unpack here. For starters, a throughline for the guys who hit in year 2 was staying on the field: Thirteen of these guys missed 3+ games as a rookie. Two of those were Coleman and McMillan; of the other 11 only one broke through for a strong encore in year 2: Michael Pittman, who feasted on a 2021 Colts team that didn't field a single other player with more than 400 yards receiving. Pittman was also the last of receivers like these to finish in the top 35 wideouts in the NFL after not cracking the top 40 as a rookie. Strikes 1 and 2 against Keon and Jalen.
On the flip side, guys on good teams did better. In fact, they did a lot better: The 10 receivers on this list to finish in the top 35 in their second year were on teams that finished with an overall record of 88-74-1 (.543 win%), making the playoffs 50 percent of the time. The rest of the field: 110-173-2 (.390), playoff berth rate of 11 percent (97-170-2 if you set aside Dante Pettis and the 2019 49ers). This bodes well for Coleman, McMillan and perhaps even Roman Wilson: The Buffalo Bills have made the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons; Tampa has five straight division titles; Pittsburgh's streak of non-losing seasons is at 21 and counting.
While this certainly doesn't mean the streets are paved with gold for these three, it does help me keep in mind that there is still a lot of truth to the 'avoid rookie wide receivers' wisdom of old. Maybe let your league mates be the ones to snap up guys like Luther Burden and Jaylin Noel in August - and save a spot for your favorite of these three.
--Luke Wilson