Ian Allan answers your fantasy football question. In this edition: Plummeting Ladd McConkey. Is Deebo Samuel back? Taking a big swing on Darren Waller? Why so low on Chris Olave? Seattle's surging running game. And more.
Question 1
Please give me your rationale for dropping Ladd McConkey from #9 ppr wide receiver in the magazine to his current ranking of #16. I'm guessing it is tied to Slater's absence for the year. As a slot receiver, might Slater's absence actually help him. Quick passes, etc. Thank you!
Clay Tolonen (Stillwater, MN)
I am a fan of McConkey. I like the way he plays, and I like that he's not related to Phil McConkey. But I downgraded him on my board after the Chargers re-signed Keenan Allen. Allen is running on fumes, but he had a strong rapport with Justin Herbert a few years back. I fear that with Allen back in the fold, it will result in McConkey seeing fewer passes.
Question 2
Deebo Samuel looked pretty fast on that preseason touch. A lot of experts have said that his decline last year may have been majorly due to his pneumonia. Do you think he has one more good season left in the tank? Is he worth taking late over someone like Diggs or Golden?
Tom Fini (Manhasset, NY)
Samuel conceded after the trade that he was overweight last year, so I tried to give him an eyeball look in that Bengals game. I can’t say that he looked any thinner or faster. (But I also can’t say he looked any slower; I’ve looked at clips of him from his best seasons – he’s just a thick guy.) Deebo is 29 (and old 29, I think) and the 49ers were willing to dish him off, with limited interest from other teams. The Commanders got him for only fifth-round pick. Them is facts. Not a player I’m expecting to select, but I also won’t rule him out. For me, he’s coming off the board after Golden but before Diggs.
Question 3
How do you suggest drafting players from the Seahawks' offense or should we just stay away?. FFI is cautioning against drafting Darnold too high, and down-grading Smith-Njigba and Kupp accordingly. The result is a pretty high projection for Kenneth Walker, despite coming off a down-year, even though he'll be sharing carries with Charbonnet and potentially Milroe on short-yardage work. Even if they're using a fullback now, and perhaps featuring Walker more in the I-formation, do you really expect this approach to work for a guy that works well between the 20's but also gets banged up a lot??
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
Injuries are a factor. No doubt. Walker isn't playing 17 games. But I think he could be really good when he's out there. I expect the ground game to be dramatically improved, given the changes to the offseason. And Walker is in a contract year, for whatever that's worth.
Question 4
I'm wondering why Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are ranked so low?
darryl irons (Klamath Falls, OR)
I have Saints projected to rank last in scoring. That’s a factor. And with Olave, he’s the Tua of the wide receiver position, with the possibility of there being a career-ending concussion.
Question 5
Ian, talk me out of this take if you think I’m on the wrong track. Looking at how Jonnu Smith was used in Miami last season, am I asking for trouble to assume Waller may be in for a huge year? I’ve been stashing him where I can, but in your opinion is that more than a 70% chance to be a wasted roster spot?
Robert Cummings (Los Angeles, CA)
Yes and yes. Most likely we’re talking about a wasted roster spot. But there is some sense in rostering Waller for the first few weeks, on the off chance they’ve got some kind of Jonnu-type plan in store for him. Waller has been activated off the PUP list, so it should become apparent soon enough.
Question 6
I have the first pick in the 12th round in a 10-man .5 ppr. Who should I'd be focusing on to be my keeper for next year? I also have the 2nd to last pick in round 16 who would be a sneaky keeper there as well?
Russ Neis (Eagan, MN)
My rough draft would include Braelon Allen. I don’t think there’s much chance of Breece Hall re-signing with the Jets. He’ll be signing a big contract elsewhere, with the team pivoting to Allen. Similarly, I think we’ll see Zach Charbonnet replacing Kenneth Walker in Seattle. Trey Benson is similar, given James Conner’s age. Quinshon Judkins is an unseemly choice, but I believer he’ll be the Week 1 starter in 2026 for Cleveland.
Question 7
Many thanks for all the work you do for your subscribers and the many more who hopefully sign up for the industry standard, FANTASY INDEX. Noticed a common theme in this recent enlarged "mailbag". Running backs, a position you've detailed in the past was somewhere to "wait on" versus the PPR monsters at the wide out position. I subscribe to your entire offerings for the NFL (season long Super Fanatic, your Gridiron publication, and even Andy's "Index Bets). I say this as I fully read your content as well as the mailbags and didn't want to sound as if I missed something obvious written by you and staff. Is this a growing trend in your mind at the RB position in fantasy? One of the mailbag questions essentially said, its J. Chase and then 11 straight RBs in snake drafts.
Don McCown (Port Washington, WI)
I haven’t made any philosophical changes. I didn’t come into the preseason expecting to upgrade running backs. I’m just reacting to the direction the stat projections have sent me. According to my numbers, there’s a tier of good running backs – the agreed upon top guys, of course, but also guys like Chase Brown, Kyren Williams and Bucky Irving. You either pick from that pool of running backs, or you’re getting into a dropoff of production and lesser options. At wide receiver, there’s a much deeper pool of talent. Scoring systems vary, but in general, if you’ve got one of the last few picks in the first round, I think you’ll come out far ahead if you pick running backs with your first two picks, then wide receivers with any two picks in the next half dozen rounds, you’ll come out well ahead of the drafting model of two wide receivers, then running backs in those same two rounds.
Question 8
Using the custom scoring system, the system asks how many owners, It would be equally beneficial if it asked for starting roster minimums 3 wrs? or 2 wrs?. This would clearly change the value of drafting wrs in the custom rankings
George Sherman (Millville, NJ)
What we’re looking for is some number of notable guys. Maybe set aside kickers and defenses, and look at the remaining starters, plus the top few backups for each team. The first “backup” you select at running back and wide receiver are certainly important players that you’ll be expecting to start some games. Phrasing the question differently, there will be perhaps 100 key players chosen in your draft – about the first eight rounds. How many wide receivers will be in that group? How many at the other positions. The system will then be set up to give you a numerical estimate of how much value you’ll be getting from each player – how much better he’ll be than what you would expect to get if you instead waited to address the position in the 9th round.
Question 9
12-man redraft PPR and I have the 8th pick in the draft. What picks should I be targeting a QB and TE? Should I prioritize having a certain amount of running backs and receivers this year before considering my QB and TE? 1 QB 2 RB 2WR 2 FLEX 1 TE
Kenneth Slota (Perrysburg, OH)
At quarterback, I think you either put in a little extra to get one of the top 5 – Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Daniels, Hurts – or you play the value game, seeing which guy is available much later. There are plenty of candidates, you would just grab a couple of them. At tight end, I think there are two difference makers, otherwise you’re waiting until later.
Question 10
Currently on the 25th out of 28 rounds of my FFPC Bestball 6 hr slow-draft and was wondering if you have any last round VooDoo (someone no one else is touching) picks. I was considering Christian Watson.
Todd Faulds (Coral Springs, FL)
This is a tight end premium format, correct? I was impressed by that grab in traffic by Gunnar Helm, and I saw him playing a lot with the first unit offense in their finale against the Vikings (both he and Chig Okonkwo on the field a bunch). I would think Helm will have a few games where he’ll hit the threshold needed to be a contributing player. And I would give some thought to Phil Mafah. He impressed me against the Rams, and that was a cool tackle-busting run near the end of the Ravens game. He’s on IR with a shoulder injury, but he’ll be returning, and the Cowboys don’t have anybody stellar ahead of him. I believe Seattle’s running game will be dramatically improved, and Kenneth Walker has had a all kinds of injuries, so that’s a team where there’s some sense in going down the third back. George Holani is that guy.
Question 11
I ended up keeping C. McCaffrey from SF as my starting RB in a league. I was curious where in the draft you think I should target adding Brian Robinson as the handcuff? As always, thanks for all you and the FI staff do! Your consistent work in providing stellar rankings and updates over the past few decades has definitely given me an edge in all of my leagues.
Andy Whaley (Papillion, NE)
You will sleep a lot better when you have Robinson under contract. With the various dynamics (McCaffrey’s injuries, the upside of the position and Shanahan declaring B-Rob as their clear No. 2 guy) I expect there will be multiple owners looking to move on Robinson. In our draft last night, McCaffrey was the top investment of the Springfield franchise. He chose to secure Robinson with the opening pick of the ninth round – No. 97 overall. I don’t think he could have waited another round, and I would think there would be many drafts where Robinson would instead go a little earlier.
Question 12
I am trying to adjust auction values to where the RBs and WRs will align more closely align to where the players will be drafted, obviously having some outliers based on your projections and ADP. In a 12-team, half-PPR league where it's QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, FLEX (RB/WR/TE). I have 58 RBs being chosen, 40 being worth more than the min bid and 74 WRs being chosen, 64 more worth the minimum bid. My ratios don't seem accurate to me and the rankings still really favor the top-end RBs, indicating Irving should be drafted ahead of Lamb, which is just never going to happen. If I go back to default, they indicate the overall RB 11 (CMC) should be drafted over the overall WR2 (Lamb). I get being higher/lower on certain guys, but the top-end RBs seem grossly overvalued.
Darrell Sooy (West Chester, PA)
Half-PPR is a different game. All those wide receivers who catch 100-plus passes are losing half of the pass-catching points they would have received in the PPR. So things are going to flip in favor of running backs. I wouldn’t worry much about ADP or what the other guys in your league believe should happen. Most of those trends and strategies are coming from guys who have put very little thought into what they’re doing. I would rather rely on what my own research is suggesting. To simplify this issue, let’s remove quarterbacks, which involve separate issues. Let’s focus instead solely on the RB-WR-TE position, putting them all on a level playing field (since each can be moved into the flex position). According to my projections, half of the top 10 in PPR scoring are wide receivers, but in Half-PPR, the only wide receiver still in the top 10 is Ja’Marr Chase. In Half-PPR, I would select Bucky Irving, Kyren Williams and Chase Brown before Jefferson or Lamb. I would then focus on WRs in the next wave. I’m in a 12-team half-PPR league, and that’s how I picked my team a few weeks ago – Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams and James Cook to open, followed in the next five rounds by Sutton, Ridley, Waddle, Addison and Mooney.
| PROJECTED SKILL POSITION LEADERS | |
|---|---|
| PPR Scoring | Half PPR Scoring |
| WR Ja'Marr Chase (366) | WR Ja'Marr Chase (306) |
| RB Bijan Robinson (295) | RB Saquon Barkley (271) |
| RB Jahmyr Gibbs (294) | RB Jahmyr Gibbs (270) |
| RB Saquon Barkley (287) | RB Bijan Robinson (269) |
| WR Justin Jefferson (283) | RB Josh Jacobs (264) |
| WR CeeDee Lamb (281) | RB Derrick Henry (256) |
| RB Josh Jacobs (281) | RB Bucky Irving (244) |
| WR Amon-Ra St.Brown (271) | RB Kyren Williams (242) |
| RB Bucky Irving (271) | RB Jonathan Taylor (241) |
| WR Nico Collins (269) | RB Chase Brown (240) |
| RB Chase Brown (265) | WR Justin Jefferson (236) |
| RB Derrick Henry (265) | RB Ashton Jeanty (235) |
| TE Trey McBride (264) | RB Christian McCaffrey (233) |
| WR Brian Thomas (262) | WR CeeDee Lamb (231) |
| RB Kyren Williams (260) | WR Nico Collins (225) |
| WR Puka Nacua (259) | RB James Cook (224) |
| RB Christian McCaffrey (258) | WR Amon-Ra St.Brown (218) |
| RB Ashton Jeanty (255) | WR Brian Thomas (217) |
| WR Malik Nabers (255) | WR Puka Nacua (211) |
| WR Drake London (252) | WR Tee Higgins (210) |
| RB Jonathan Taylor (252) | WR Malik Nabers (208) |
| WR Tee Higgins (251) | TE Trey McBride (206) |
| TE Brock Bowers (250) | WR Drake London (206) |
| WR Courtland Sutton (246) | WR Courtland Sutton (204) |
| RB James Cook (241) | RB DeVon Achane (201) |
| WR Mike Evans (239) | WR Mike Evans (200) |
| WR DeVonta Smith (236) | TE Brock Bowers (199) |
| WR Terry McLaurin (235) | WR Terry McLaurin (197) |
| WR Marvin Harrison (234) | RB Kenneth Walker (196) |
| WR Davante Adams (234) | WR A.J. Brown (195) |
| WR Ladd McConkey (234) | WR DeVonta Smith (193) |
| WR A.J. Brown (233) | WR Marvin Harrison (192) |
| WR Tyreek Hill (232) | RB Omarion Hampton (192) |
| WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (230) | WR Ladd McConkey (192) |
| RB DeVon Achane (230) | RB Alvin Kamara (192) |
| WR DK Metcalf (230) | RB Isiah Pacheco (192) |
| WR DJ Moore (229) | WR Davante Adams (192) |
| WR Garrett Wilson (229) | WR Tyreek Hill (191) |
| WR Calvin Ridley (227) | WR DK Metcalf (191) |
| WR Xavier Worthy (224) | WR Calvin Ridley (191) |
Question 13
Appreciate your work as always, Ian and Team. I see DeVonta Smith, the Eagles’ WR2, ranked ahead of A.J. Brown, the WR1. Do you have this based on volume, yards or TDs? Isn’t this rather unusual? Thanks!
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
They've been comparable receivers. I believe I had Brown a little bit higher for most of the offseason. I discounted him by about a game after he suffered a hamstring injury. I've struggled with that passing game some, with a new coordinator. The Eagles ranked only 30th in passing last year, down at 207 yards per game. They were up at 9th and 17th the previous two seasons, averaging 257 and 239 yards.
Question 14
12 team PPR keeper question, i’m drafting #4 overall, snake draft. My choices aren’t great: Sutton at 4.9/44th overall, Love at 7.4/76th overall, or no one. According to my custom rankings, Sutton is WR15 and #38 overall, and Love is QB16 and #107 overall. Some context: last year there were 20 WR taken by the end of round 4, and 11 QB taken by the end of round 7.
Eric Goetz (Shoreline, WA)
I would lock in on Sutton rather than unknown player behind curtain 4.09. Sutton is on the slow side, but he’s big, with good ability to pull down contested balls. After a slow start, he averaged top-10 numbers in his final 10 games last year (60 for 804, with 6 TDs).
Question 15
Planning on drafting Addison as stash guy til he gets back. He will be suspended to start the season. Does that mean he isn't allowed to practice as well as play? Wondering if you have any data on how long it takes a guy to get up to speed after being held out of practices. Thanks for all you and your guys do. Good luck this year.
Matt Morse ()
Yes. Addison is out for the first three games. He’ll re-join the team on the Monday after that Week 3 game. That makes for an awkward launch, with the the next two games in Europe. They’ve got the Steelers in Ireland in Week 4, followed by the Browns in England in Week 5. But I’ve heard Addison was looking really good in camp, and I saw him make a terrific catch for 18 yards against Houstin, with J.J. McCarthy gunning the ball as Addison was coming out of his break. I selected Addison with the 72nd pick of a draft last night as my fourth wide receiver.
Question 16
I have been with you since the days there was only a magazine! My annual question is what backup running backs could end up being top 15 backs with a starter injury or any other RB's or WR's worth a gamble late in the draft that could have added upside.
Randy Newland (Sunrise, FL)
How about Ollie Gordon? I liked the way he played in the preseason, and I can’t imagine DeVon Achane will last 17 games.
Question 17
Long-time subscriber and appreciate everything you all do. That said over the last several season I haven’t had much luck and the rest of the league is getting better. Every year I come out thinking I killed the draft only to realize my team is avg at best. Last year I put a lot of weight on Jordan Love and Sam LaPorta which didn’t pan out down the stretch. Who are 2 guys in each round 3 - 7 that you’re eyeing who might help differ is from the rest of the fantasy football polls. Picking 6th in a PPR draft.
Tom Clark (Suffern, NY)
Picking sixth in PPR, I imagine you’ll be going with either CeeDee Lamb or Josh Jacobs with that first pick. Projected value is similar. It will be Lamb if you want to go down the receiver tract, and Jacobs if you want to tick off one at the harder-to-fill RB position, giving you more flexibility a rounds into things. (It will be easier to find wide receivers in rounds 4-5-6). I wouldn’t worry about trying to sketch out players you hope to target in middle rounds. You don’t pick them, they pick you. You’ll be on the clock, and on some of those choices, there will be a player or two who’s ranked higher than a bunch of the guys who have been picked. That’s the market telling you who to pick. At that point, you’re only decision is whether to go along with what the projection is telling you.
Question 18
We are starting our 56th year of Fantasy Football this year. We started in 1970. It wasn't even called Fantasy Football back then. My first pick was QB, John Hadl of the San Diego Chargers. I have been following you for over 30 years and I appreciate all the help and insight over the years. My question is in regards to where the TEs would be ranked with the WRs. In past years, you guys also ranked the TEs with the WRs for those of us that do not play the TE as a separate position. Is there a place I can find that info? Thanks again for the great work over the years!
Robert Jackson (Livermore, CA)
My first pick was also a Chargers quarterback – Dan Fouts in 1986. I actually announced Dan Marino as my first pick (5th overall) but then asked for backsies a few seconds later. Marino threw 44 touchdowns that year, and I would have won the league going away (later in that draft I landed Jerry Rice’s first big season and also George Rogers punching in short touchdowns at a rate similar to John Riggins). But what was the question, again? Yes. Tight ends as wide receivers. My stat projections indicate that if we’re using standard scoring (without points for receptions) there should be 11 among the top 60 pass catchers, coming in at 23, 24, 29, 40, 42, 49, 51, 53, 56, 57 and 58. They get more compelling in PPR scoring, with McBride 6th, Bowers 12th and 11 others between 34th and 58th. To access this kind of info, use the stat projections in the Excel file that’s provided with each product. It’s got three tabs: one showing per-game stats, one showing per-season stats, and one showing per-season stats if each player was playing in all 17 games. If you were comparing numbers, you would want to replay on the per-season stats.
Question 19
My league is changing, so that we have 1 QB, 1 WR, 1 RB, and 1 TE with 4 flex spots (RB,WR,TE). TE get 1.5 PPR. How do you suggest prioritizing picks in the early rounds? Under our previous standard starting lineup, you could make the case for taking a TE in Round 1. I'm trying to grasp in the new format if one position now has greater value that should be targeted.
RAYMOND HOEGEN (Danville, NH)
The value of tight ends will be juiced up. Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are going to be catching 100-plus passes; they’ll be picking up an extra 50 points. And the other above-average tight ends will be moving up relative to other positions. With you having four flex positions, I would just look at all of those guys as a group. You’ll hit the one-player min at each position, so just look at them all without regards to position. With traditional PPR scoring, I see 15 in the top 100, with only two ranked higher than 49th. With tight ends getting the extra half point per catch, I see 18 in the top 100, including five in the top 30. (And McBride and Bowers as the best non-Ja’Marr players.)
| TIGHT ENDS vs. RB & WR | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | PPR | TE+ |
| Trey McBride | 13 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers | 23 | 3 |
| George Kittle | 49 | 24 |
| Sam LaPorta | 56 | 29 |
| Travis Kelce | 63 | 28 |
| David Njoku | 65 | 37 |
| Mark Andrews | 71 | 55 |
| Tyler Warren | 73 | 51 |
| Dallas Goedert | 76 | 59 |
| Jake Ferguson | 80 | 57 |
| Zach Ertz | 83 | 63 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 84 | 64 |
| Tucker Kraft | 86 | 71 |
| Evan Engram | 97 | 73 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 98 | 75 |
| Colston Loveland | 109 | 88 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 111 | 90 |
| Theo Johnson | 116 | 95 |
Question 20
Long-time follower of yours. Our league gives a point per completion and 6 pts for all TDs. Most years we all wait on QBs til 4/5round but do you think in this format Burrow is a first-round no brainer? Also in this format which QBs would be much higher then the norm? Thank you.
TODD THOMPSON (Webster, NY)
To me, Burrow looks like a heavy favorite to lead the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Barring some kind of injury, I’m sure he’ll be one of the top couple guys in those categories. So he’d right up near the top of my board, if not the No. 1 player overall. Giving points for completions, you’re more than doubling the value of quarterbacks. Burrow averaged about 4 more points per week than any other quarterback last year. Below are the 29 quarterbacks who started at least 10 games last year. You’re looking at regular scoring first (Standard), and the modified scoring on the right, with more points for TD passes and points for completions. For more of an apples-to-apples comparison, I used per-stat numbers. Note that the running quarterbacks aren’t as dominant in your league. Lamar, Josh, Jayden and Hurts drop from 1st, 4th, 6th and 5th in scoring to 3rd, 9th, 10th and 15th. Goff, Tua and Darnold snuck by most of those guys in this format.
| QUARTERBACKS WITH COMPLETION POINTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Std | Rk | New | Rk | |
| Joe Burrow | 26.5 | 2 | 58.6 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 26.3 | 3 | 55.0 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 28.8 | 1 | 52.2 | 3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 20.8 | 13 | 50.7 | 4 |
| Jared Goff | 23.2 | 7 | 50.5 | 5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 21.5 | 11 | 49.3 | 6 |
| Sam Darnold | 22.5 | 8 | 47.9 | 7 |
| Bo Nix | 22.3 | 10 | 47.8 | 8 |
| Josh Allen | 25.4 | 4 | 46.8 | 9 |
| Jayden Daniels | 24.1 | 6 | 46.5 | 10 |
| Geno Smith | 20.0 | 14 | 46.4 | 11 |
| Kyler Murray | 21.5 | 12 | 45.9 | 12 |
| Brock Purdy | 22.4 | 9 | 45.0 | 13 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 18.9 | 20 | 43.9 | 14 |
| Jalen Hurts | 24.3 | 5 | 43.2 | 15 |
| Russell Wilson | 19.6 | 17 | 42.0 | 16 |
| Justin Herbert | 19.7 | 16 | 41.9 | 17 |
| Kirk Cousins | 17.7 | 25 | 41.9 | 18 |
| Caleb Williams | 18.4 | 22 | 41.4 | 19 |
| Bryce Young | 19.8 | 15 | 41.3 | 20 |
| Matthew Stafford | 17.0 | 28 | 40.8 | 21 |
| Daniel Jones | 17.4 | 26 | 40.6 | 22 |
| Jordan Love | 19.3 | 18 | 40.5 | 23 |
| Derek Carr | 18.2 | 23 | 40.1 | 24 |
| Drake Maye | 18.8 | 21 | 39.7 | 25 |
| C.J. Stroud | 17.0 | 27 | 39.2 | 26 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 18.2 | 24 | 37.6 | 27 |
| Will Levis | 14.7 | 29 | 32.7 | 28 |
| Anthony Richardson | 19.2 | 19 | 32.1 | 29 |
Question 21
Earlier, you posted rankings of the Offensive Lines in an article from July 1st with the Lions being number 1. How do the overall rankings stand now, especially with Ragnow retired?
Brian Frank (Shelby Township, MI)
The Lions, I think, are shooting more for “above average” on the offensive line. Frank Ragnow retired, and guard Kevin Zeitler signed with Tennessee. I haven’t seen Andy’s latest OL rankings but in the opening version (which can be accessed using the “in depth” tab), the Lions are 14th. He had the Eagles, Broncos, Vikings, Bucs and Ravens as his top 5.