Teams have trimmed down to 53 players. The preseason games have all been played. And at this point, I think we can pretty much lock down on our overall offensive expectations as we head into draft weekend.
I’ve spent a good chunk of yesterday and today giving the numbers a final look over – not only the individual stats but the team numbers. In our forecasting model, we’ve got the two tied together. (So when a team’s passing projection is changed from 250 yards per game down to 245, it slightly affects all of the pass catchers on that team.)
Readers are more interested in the individual numbers, and those just left my desk; they’ll be posted on the website soon. But it also makes some sense to take a step back and look at offenses in general.
On my board, I’ve got five offenses that I think will average more than 3 TDs per week – Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Lions, Eagles. I’ve got only three pegged to average under 2: Saints, Browns, Giants.
I’ve got 39.5 as the median, which is in line with a typical season (I’ve got 16 offenses above 40.5 touchdowns, and I’ve got 16 at 38.6 and below.)
For perspective, the chart below includes not only our projections for the upcoming season, but also the actual numbers from 2024. Comparing the two, we’ve got 10 offenses improving by 5-10 touchdowns (in bold). We’ve got the Cowboys, Raiders and Patriots as this year’s most improved offenses. (All have the advantage of having scored only 29 TDs a year ago, making it easier to improve.) Dak Prescott, if our math is correct, will quarterback the league’s most improved offense.
We’ve got 10 offenses declining by at least 3 TDs (tagged with black dots). In this category, the Lions and Bucs are the runaway leaders, with expected falls of 13-15 touchdowns – through a mix of decline and them being unusually good last year). Two other offenses are also expected to flip by over 5 touchdowns, and they also were two of last year’s best – Ravens, Bills.
In the chart below, teams are ordered by expected offensive touchdowns (passing and rushing).
| PROJECTED TOUCHDOWN TOTALS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total | '24: P-R-T |
| • Baltimore | 35.4 | 20.6 | 56.0 | 41-21-63 |
| • Buffalo | 30.2 | 25.3 | 55.5 | 30-32-62 |
| Cincinnati | 42.5 | 12.6 | 55.1 | 43-11-54 |
| • Detroit | 29.8 | 22.7 | 52.5 | 39-29-68 |
| Philadelphia | 25.8 | 26.2 | 52.0 | 24-29-53 |
| • Washington | 32.6 | 17.9 | 50.5 | 29-25-54 |
| Green Bay | 24.9 | 24.4 | 49.3 | 28-23-51 |
| Kansas City | 30.9 | 15.4 | 46.3 | 26-15-41 |
| San Francisco | 25.7 | 19.8 | 45.5 | 23-17-40 |
| Denver | 31.5 | 12.6 | 44.0 | 30-12-42 |
| • Tampa Bay | 29.2 | 14.1 | 43.4 | 41-16-57 |
| LA Chargers | 24.0 | 17.5 | 41.5 | 23-17-40 |
| Miami | 28.2 | 12.8 | 41.0 | 22-12-34 |
| • Minnesota | 26.5 | 14.3 | 40.8 | 35-9-44 |
| LA Rams | 25.2 | 15.3 | 40.5 | 22-15-37 |
| Arizona | 22.4 | 18.0 | 40.5 | 21-18-41 |
| Dallas | 27.8 | 10.8 | 38.6 | 23-6-29 |
| Seattle | 20.2 | 18.4 | 38.6 | 21-17-38 |
| Jacksonville | 24.8 | 13.3 | 38.0 | 19-13-32 |
| Atlanta | 20.7 | 17.3 | 38.0 | 21-18-39 |
| Chicago | 23.4 | 14.6 | 38.0 | 20-13-33 |
| Houston | 25.3 | 12.2 | 37.5 | 20-15-35 |
| New England | 23.7 | 13.6 | 37.3 | 18-11-29 |
| Las Vegas | 21.6 | 15.4 | 37.0 | 19-10-29 |
| • Indianapolis | 18.7 | 17.9 | 36.6 | 20-20-40 |
| • Carolina | 21.8 | 14.3 | 36.0 | 22-18-40 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.6 | 11.9 | 35.5 | 21-14-35 |
| • NY Jets | 16.3 | 18.7 | 35.0 | 31-8-39 |
| Tennessee | 22.3 | 12.2 | 34.5 | 22-11-33 |
| NY Giants | 20.6 | 12.9 | 33.5 | 15-13-28 |
| Cleveland | 22.1 | 10.9 | 33.0 | 19-8-27 |
| • New Orleans | 19.8 | 11.2 | 31.0 | 21-15-36 |
—Ian Allan