With the preseason kicking off in full, it’s a good time to take stock of the league in general. I am ready to lock in on my pre-preseason expectations for each team.
In our grading process, we punch in numbers at both the micro and macro levels. Most commonly, people care about the player projections, but we’ve got them tied to expectations for the teams in general. (When we increase or decrease projections for a team in general, it raises or lowers all of the players on that franchise).
With the regular season less than a month away, we’ve got the Ravens projecting to lead the league in touchdowns. That’s our projected top offense. They scored 63 touchdowns last year, and we’ve got them putting up another 57 this time around.
We’ve got four other offenses projecting to average more than 3 touchdowns per week – Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Lions.
The offenses that will decline the most (if our numbers are correct) are Detroit and Tampa Bay. We’ve got both declining by about 15 touchdowns.
TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Tot |
Baltimore | 35.7 | 21.3 | 57.0 |
Buffalo | 30.2 | 25.3 | 55.5 |
Cincinnati | 42.5 | 11.5 | 54.0 |
Philadelphia | 25.9 | 27.1 | 53.0 |
Detroit | 29.4 | 23.1 | 52.5 |
Washington | 32.8 | 17.7 | 50.5 |
Green Bay | 24.3 | 25.2 | 49.5 |
Kansas City | 31.3 | 15.1 | 46.5 |
San Francisco | 26.1 | 19.9 | 46.0 |
Denver | 31.6 | 12.6 | 44.2 |
LA Chargers | 24.0 | 18.5 | 42.5 |
LA Rams | 27.0 | 15.3 | 42.3 |
Tampa Bay | 28.1 | 14.0 | 42.0 |
Miami | 28.9 | 13.1 | 42.0 |
Arizona | 22.3 | 17.9 | 40.1 |
Minnesota | 26.2 | 13.8 | 40.0 |
Atlanta | 21.3 | 17.7 | 39.0 |
Dallas | 27.2 | 11.3 | 38.5 |
Seattle | 20.2 | 18.2 | 38.4 |
Jacksonville | 25.2 | 13.1 | 38.3 |
Indianapolis | 18.2 | 19.8 | 38.0 |
Houston | 25.6 | 12.2 | 37.8 |
Las Vegas | 21.5 | 16.2 | 37.6 |
Chicago | 22.3 | 14.2 | 36.5 |
Carolina | 22.4 | 14.1 | 36.5 |
New England | 24.0 | 12.1 | 36.0 |
Pittsburgh | 23.3 | 12.2 | 35.5 |
NY Jets | 16.2 | 17.9 | 34.0 |
Tennessee | 21.6 | 11.4 | 33.0 |
Cleveland | 20.7 | 12.2 | 33.0 |
NY Giants | 20.7 | 12.2 | 33.0 |
New Orleans | 20.7 | 11.2 | 32.0 |
For passing at the team level, the Bengals are the big story. We’ve got them way ahead of the rest of the league. I discussed this in yesterday’s Mailbag. Cincinnati will finish with high-octane passing numbers, but there isn’t really another offense that has a passing game that I’m crazy about. The other great offenses – Lions, Ravens, Bills, Eagles and others – all run the ball a bunch. The No. 2 passing offense on my board (KC) has sputtered the last two years.
This is why I see Ja’Marr Chase as a lot better than all of the other wide receivers, and I similarly see Joe Burrow putting up significantly better passing numbers than any other quarterback. Not even close.
For this chart, teams graded using 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 passing yards. (Passing yards don’t include sacks – these are expected gross yards.)
TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | TDP | Pts |
Cincinnati | 300 | 2.50 | 45.0 |
Kansas City | 262 | 1.84 | 37.3 |
Miami | 267 | 1.70 | 36.9 |
Detroit | 265 | 1.73 | 36.9 |
Baltimore | 237 | 2.10 | 36.3 |
Washington | 241 | 1.93 | 35.7 |
Denver | 245 | 1.86 | 35.7 |
San Francisco | 260 | 1.53 | 35.2 |
Buffalo | 244 | 1.77 | 35.0 |
Tampa Bay | 245 | 1.65 | 34.4 |
Dallas | 244 | 1.60 | 34.0 |
Houston | 248 | 1.50 | 33.8 |
LA Rams | 242 | 1.59 | 33.7 |
Jacksonville | 247 | 1.48 | 33.6 |
Minnesota | 242 | 1.54 | 33.5 |
LA Chargers | 242 | 1.41 | 32.7 |
Green Bay | 235 | 1.43 | 32.1 |
Philadelphia | 227 | 1.52 | 31.8 |
New England | 232 | 1.41 | 31.7 |
Arizona | 231 | 1.31 | 31.0 |
Atlanta | 232 | 1.25 | 30.7 |
Pittsburgh | 224 | 1.37 | 30.6 |
Seattle | 230 | 1.19 | 30.1 |
Carolina | 220 | 1.32 | 29.9 |
Chicago | 219 | 1.31 | 29.8 |
Tennessee | 217 | 1.27 | 29.3 |
Las Vegas | 216 | 1.26 | 29.2 |
NY Giants | 217 | 1.22 | 29.0 |
Cleveland | 214 | 1.22 | 28.7 |
New Orleans | 211 | 1.22 | 28.4 |
Indianapolis | 198 | 1.07 | 26.2 |
NY Jets | 196 | .95 | 25.3 |
There’s more quality and balance at the top for rushing offenses. I’ve got the Eagles as the projected No. 1 rushing team, but then there are four others that also look really strong – Ravens, Bills and Lions, of course, but the Packers also operated at a really high level (on the ground) in the second half of last year. I consider Green Bay’s run game to be for real.
Offenses ranked using 6 points for each rushing touchdown and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards.
TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Run | TDP | Pts |
Philadelphia | 160 | 1.59 | 25.6 |
Baltimore | 163 | 1.25 | 23.8 |
Green Bay | 139 | 1.48 | 22.8 |
Buffalo | 130 | 1.49 | 21.9 |
Detroit | 131 | 1.36 | 21.3 |
Arizona | 142 | 1.05 | 20.5 |
Indianapolis | 133 | 1.16 | 20.3 |
San Francisco | 130 | 1.17 | 20.0 |
Washington | 137 | 1.04 | 19.9 |
NY Jets | 135 | 1.05 | 19.8 |
Atlanta | 133 | 1.04 | 19.6 |
LA Chargers | 123 | 1.09 | 18.8 |
Seattle | 116 | 1.07 | 18.0 |
Las Vegas | 116 | .95 | 17.3 |
Chicago | 115 | .84 | 16.5 |
Tampa Bay | 115 | .82 | 16.4 |
LA Rams | 110 | .90 | 16.4 |
Minnesota | 115 | .81 | 16.4 |
Kansas City | 107 | .89 | 16.0 |
Denver | 115 | .74 | 15.9 |
Carolina | 109 | .83 | 15.9 |
Cleveland | 115 | .72 | 15.8 |
Jacksonville | 112 | .77 | 15.8 |
New England | 113 | .71 | 15.6 |
Miami | 108 | .77 | 15.4 |
Tennessee | 113 | .67 | 15.3 |
Pittsburgh | 109 | .72 | 15.2 |
NY Giants | 108 | .72 | 15.1 |
Dallas | 110 | .67 | 15.0 |
Houston | 105 | .72 | 14.8 |
New Orleans | 102 | .66 | 14.2 |
Cincinnati | 94 | .68 | 13.5 |
These are the team numbers. Our individual player projections are all tied together with these numbers.
—Ian Allan