Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is Courtland Sutton still an elite receiver? Is Rico Dowdle about to explode? Quarterbacks running more. Trey Benson's rehab. And more.
Question 1
Looks like FI severely soured on Sutton from last week to this week. What’s the thought process there? Just Nix spreading it around too much? What is your take on Hunter this week if BTJ is playing? Wondering how much of his breakout was simply the BTJ injury versus rookie growth and the coach figuring out how to utilize him.
Aaron Vander Vorst (West Fargo, ND)
Sutton last week dropped a touchdown and also had a touchdown erased by a penalty. And Nix in the not-too-distant past missed him on a touchdown bomb. Hit on one or two of those plays, and the narrative changes. But if we’re going by plays that actually happened, Sutton hasn’t caught any of the 8 touchdowns thrown in the last four games. Troy Franklin has caught 3 in the last two weeks. So how long are we sticking with the premise that Sutton is more likely to catch a touchdown than Franklin? Sutton in 2023 caught 10 of the team’s 28 touchdown passes. Last year, he caught 8 of their 30. He averaged 6 catches for 80 yards in his final 10 games last year. But he doesn’t seem to be that guy anymore. The Broncos are getting more comfortable using other wide receivers. That’s how it seems to be playing out, and we’ve been dialing down Sutton in recent weeks. As for Travis Hunter, I think they’re figuring out how to use him. In August and September, they were trying to get him the ball on a bunch of short throws at the line of scrimmage, hoping he could create yards after the catch. That didn’t really work. But more recently, he comes up with some impressive catches downfield. I think that’s his superpower – tracking and adjusting to the ball, coming up with catches in contested situations. And they seem to be bailing on him playing extensively at cornerback. There’s a chance, I think, that Hunter is their most productive pass catcher in the second half of the season.
Question 2
In full PPR leagues, who has more value going forward, Rico Dowdle or Alvin Kamara?
SCOTT PORTER (Louisville, KY)
I would be inclined to go with Dowdle. The Panthers have shown more ability to put together an effective running game, and I think he’s going to be their main back for the duration. He had two those games with over 200 total yards, and since Hubbard came back, Dowdle has averaged over 2 more yards per attempt in both games. Dave Canales hinted on Monday that the Panthers need to start using Dowdle more. With Kamara, the role is more secure, but without much upside. He’s the featured back on a 1-7 team. Thus far, he’s averaging 45 rushing yards and 3.4 catches for 18 receiving yards. Just one touchdown. Kamara potentially could be moved before next Tuesday’s trade deadline, but I don’t think anyone will be too interested in a 30-year-old running back who’s averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
Question 3
Are QB rushing yards up this season? It sure seems like they are. Next, if yes, what do you think about that? I personally don't like it. It's like cheating the defense. Both the D and the QB know that the QB can't be touched, or a flag will be coming.
Roland Deschain (IL)
Your hunch is correct. More teams are moving to mobile quarterbacks, and picking up those freebie yards on scrambles has become a bigger part of the game. If we ballpark the stats using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards, the six most productive rushing seasons (for quarterbacks) have all come in the last six years. In the chart below, you’re looking at the average total per team, and I’ve standardized to 17 games, eliminating the factor of teams playing only 16 games prior to 2021. (I also ran the numbers back to the merger in 1970, and I don’t see any big QB running seasons in those earlier years, with the best being 1972, when teams were averaging 215 yards and 2.9 TDs per 17 games). Mobile quarterbacks are a bigger part of the game now, and I suppose it should have happened sooner.
| QUARTERBACKS RUSHING AVERAGES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Pts |
| 2002 | 54 | 223 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 36.8 |
| 2003 | 46 | 163 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 28.4 |
| 2004 | 47 | 165 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 24.2 |
| 2005 | 46 | 151 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 23.9 |
| 2006 | 48 | 173 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 26.1 |
| 2007 | 43 | 133 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 21.3 |
| 2008 | 44 | 147 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 24.3 |
| 2009 | 44 | 142 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 23.2 |
| 2010 | 47 | 188 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 27.9 |
| 2011 | 52 | 201 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 33.2 |
| 2012 | 52 | 218 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 34.9 |
| 2013 | 57 | 245 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 35.8 |
| 2014 | 55 | 221 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 31.4 |
| 2015 | 54 | 218 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 33.9 |
| 2016 | 51 | 199 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 32.9 |
| 2017 | 55 | 237 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 36.8 |
| 2018 | 62 | 266 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 40.7 |
| 2019 | 60 | 253 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 41.1 |
| 2020 | 71 | 311 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 56.1 |
| 2021 | 67 | 293 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 47.7 |
| 2022 | 72 | 317 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 50.1 |
| 2023 | 71 | 295 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 50.1 |
| 2024 | 74 | 344 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 54.5 |
| 2025 | 72 | 314 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 49.8 |
Question 4
How is Trey Benson doing? Is he on the road back? and if so when will that be?
Ken Freeman (Green Bay, WI)
Benson is on IR – eligible to return in Week 10. He authored a one-word post on social media this week that reads, “SOON”. I take that to mean there’s a decent chance he might be back on the practice field on Monday.
Question 5
Moving to 3-5 so starting to feel desperation as now make or break to sneak into playoffs. Burrow, Chase disappointing to start, Bucky and Pearsall out is hurting in two flex league, and dealing with weekly 0 bombs from Jamo and now QJ. Traded MHJ for Herbert and Tet which was a delight to see sent to me, Javonte been bright spot of draft and Kyren been solid. Who would be favorite meaningful trade targets and who would you ship off with thin bench outside of those players (Kincaid, Pacheco, Bam, Monangai, Andrews, A. Pierce, and Shepard).
Mitchell Ross (Westport, CT)
Oronde Gadsden is now a full-fledged member of Herbert’s aerial army. He’s caught 7, 7 and 5 passes in his last three games, with 2 TDs. With that kind mind, it’s going to be awfully tough to trust Quentin Johnston. With McConkey and Allen also available, there will be weeks that Johnston is simply left out. I think you can ship off Shepard with no worries, and I’d be willing to part with Pacheco is there’s something out there you like.
Question 6
I never would have imagined I would ask this question. Bam Knight or David Montgomery? I can wait for the week 9 rankings but thought I'd ask.
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
If I were looking simply for a touchdown, I would start Montgomery. He plays for the better team, and he gets a fair number of goal-line carries. But if we’re factoring in yards, than Knight grades out higher in both PPR and standard. We’ve got them both at 50 rushing yards, and Knight projects to finish with 7 more receiving yards. In reality, there probably should be more of a gap between them. Knight is projected conservatively. We’ve got Arizona at 110 rushing yards, with 50 yards for Knight, 33 for Kyler Murray, and 27 assigned to other running backs – Emari, Carter, D’Ernest Johnson, Jermar Jefferson. We’ve got Knight watered down a little to balance in him being somewhat of an unknown. But I think he’s your guy.
Question 7
I believe I read that SF had the easiest schedule this year and also the easiest over the past 10 years. Is that not the case anymore as the season has progressed? More importantly, wondering if it's time to give up on Purdy and Pearsall (your rankings have them pretty low) or do you still think they could be very productive during the second half of the season?
MICHAEL TRAMONTE (Melrose, MA)
Once Purdy gets back to acceptable health (perhaps this week), I imagine he’ll be a top-10 quarterback for the duration. That’s a well-structured offense, as evidenced by them passing for over 275 yards in each of their first six games. Purdy can run that system. With Pearsall, it’s a little different. He’s got to get back to full strength, but they’ve got a bunch of other pass-catching weapons – McCaffrey, Kittle, Bourne, Jennings. Kyle Shanahan says Brandon Aiyuk might return to practice next week. Will be tough, I think, for Pearsall to carve out a reliable role. As for schedules, it looks like New England’s is the easiest for the duration – both wins and points. That’s after setting aside Week 18 (which doesn’t factor into typical fantasy leagues). San Francisco’s next eight games ar against teams that are a combined 27-34, but those teams are currently allowing only 23.4 points per game, which is only average.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 9-17) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct | Pts |
| New England | 23 | 38 | 0 | .377 | 26.1 |
| Cleveland | 24 | 35 | 0 | .407 | 25.6 |
| Miami | 25 | 36 | 0 | .410 | 26.0 |
| New Orleans | 26 | 36 | 0 | .419 | 24.0 |
| NY Jets | 26 | 35 | 0 | .426 | 23.3 |
| Baltimore | 29 | 39 | 1 | .428 | 25.4 |
| San Francisco | 27 | 34 | 0 | .443 | 23.4 |
| Cincinnati | 27 | 31 | 0 | .466 | 24.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 28 | 32 | 0 | .467 | 22.1 |
| LA Chargers | 28 | 31 | 1 | .475 | 23.4 |
| Tennessee | 30 | 31 | 0 | .492 | 20.4 |
| Seattle | 33 | 34 | 0 | .493 | 21.9 |
| Jacksonville | 34 | 35 | 0 | .493 | 22.0 |
| Denver | 29 | 29 | 1 | .500 | 20.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 35 | 33 | 0 | .515 | 24.6 |
| Dallas | 31 | 29 | 0 | .517 | 22.3 |
| Detroit | 34 | 31 | 2 | .522 | 23.9 |
| Carolina | 31 | 28 | 1 | .525 | 21.7 |
| Buffalo | 37 | 33 | 0 | .529 | 22.4 |
| Chicago | 35 | 31 | 2 | .529 | 24.0 |
| Minnesota | 34 | 30 | 2 | .530 | 24.8 |
| Washington | 32 | 28 | 1 | .533 | 23.9 |
| Las Vegas | 37 | 32 | 1 | .536 | 22.3 |
| Atlanta | 37 | 32 | 0 | .536 | 21.7 |
| Green Bay | 36 | 31 | 0 | .537 | 24.5 |
| LA Rams | 36 | 31 | 0 | .537 | 21.9 |
| Houston | 37 | 31 | 0 | .544 | 21.7 |
| Philadelphia | 32 | 25 | 2 | .559 | 24.2 |
| Arizona | 37 | 29 | 1 | .560 | 22.3 |
| NY Giants | 33 | 25 | 1 | .568 | 22.7 |
| Indianapolis | 33 | 25 | 0 | .569 | 20.3 |
| Kansas City | 36 | 25 | 1 | .589 | 21.8 |
Question 8
Does Fantasy Index provide a 2nd half Redrafter, with all the draft info?
DEAN ACORD (Las Vegas, NV)
We start each week by re-stacking our big board – what is each team doing to do in its remaining games? And how are those stats going to be divided up amongst its players? It’s good to take a careful look at every number for every player every week. The Redrafter product is released every Tuesday at about noon Pacific time. It’s separate from the week-specific rankings that come out the next day. The Redrafter at this time of year gets a little herky-jerky, with teams having different number of games left. A mediocre kickers with 10 games left, for example, would tend to score more points than a good kicker with 9 games left. To soften this affect, we shave off a few points from teams that have already had their byes, while giving a slight boost to those with their byes still remaining.
Question 9
Your Redrafter has Aaron Rodgers higher than Justin Fields. I had a chance to grab him off waivers this week but kept Rodgers thinking the revenge factor would boost him. I have Lamar but I’m worried his hammy doesn't hold up or limits his rushing production. Should I keep Rodgers over Fields? Or try to grab Fields off waivers?
Edward Shin (Tustin, CA)
Rodgers is the safer choice. He’ll be starting for the duration, throwing multiple touchdowns in most of them. Yardage totals should be below-average most weeks, and he’ll give you nothing as a scrambler. With Fields, there could be a couple of those spike weeks, where he’s dual-threating his way to top-10 numbers – like he did against the Steelers and Bengals. But he's also capable of god-awful clunkers, and he may be benched at some point.
Question 10
I have Jonathon Taylor and added DJ Giddens as a handcuff, but last week he was a healthy scratch. What are your current thoughts about what will happen in the Colts’ backfield if Taylor gets injured and misses time?
Robert Bredesen (Anchorage, AK)
In the event that we have to watch the Colts without Jonathan Taylor (are you trying to jinx us?), I imagine they’ll use a committee approach. Ameer Abdullah is getting the most reps right now. I would guess he would be their busiest back, but I would think at least one other back would have a significant role – Tyler Goodson or DJ Giddens.