Fantasy Index Weekly is done for the season, but we'll break down the two games this weekend here at the website, with player rankings coming at the end of the week. First up, the visitor in the AFC Championship Game, the New England Patriots.
Overview: These teams have met only once in the last five years, a Week 16 game in 2023 won by New England, 26-23. Both teams were playing out the string at that time; both would be drafting quarterbacks (Drake Maye and Bo Nix) a few months later. They've met five times in the playoffs, with the most recent and memorable a Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady 20-18 Broncos win in the AFC Championship after the 2015 season (Denver went on to win the Super Bowl that year). ... New England opened as a 4.5-point favorite which quickly jumped to 5.5, a nod to Denver having to start its backup quarterback this week. The over-under of just 40.5 suggests a lower-scoring game along the lines of 23-17. ... Early forecast looks fine: temperatures in the mid-40s, winds of 5-10 mph, sunny and no precipitation expected.
PATRIOTS:
Schedule was a factor in New England's march to 14-3; they played only three games against teams that finished with winning records (and went 1-2, losing to Pittsburgh and splitting with Buffalo). They've also had a favorable playoff draw, with the Chargers and Texans missing several key starters due to injury (a trend that continues here). But schedule aside, they've been arguably the league's most balanced team, with a top-5 offense and top-10 defense. Here they face a defense that finished in the top 3 in both yards and points allowed, but that allowed plenty of production to the better offenses it faced all along, particularly late in the season. In their last three meaningful games (Packers, Jaguars and Bills last week) Denver allowed 9 touchdowns and 26, 34 and 30 points. New England seems likely to come through with 2-3 TDs, probably scoring in the mid-20s. (And advancing to the Super Bowl, if the betting public is correct.)
Drake Maye will likely be the MVP runnerup, and deservedly so. He was a constant during the season; at no point did he really have a poor game. He averaged 259 yards passing and 27 yards rushing, and just over 2 TDs per game (31 passing and 4 rushing). Six times he passed for over 280 yards, and six times he rushed for 40-plus. He'll be getting his numbers one way or another.
The Broncos, meanwhile, ranked 11th in pass defense during the season, but that's skewed by some pitiful outings by lesser passers -- Fields and Oladokun finishing under 75 yards, and four others under 150. In fact, the pass is the way to move the ball against Denver, and what the defense encouraged. Eight opponents passed for over 275 yards against the Broncos, not only better quarterbacks (Mahomes, Herbert, Hurts, Love, Lawrence) but also Mariota, Dart and Daniel Jones. Josh Allen threw for 283 and 3 TDs last week. All of those opponents didn't have great games (this defense allowed just 18 touchdown passes during the season), plus Denver had a franchise-record 68 sacks. But there will be some production to be had, making Maye look like a strong candidate to finish with the most passing yards of the week's four quarterbacks. And while his opponent is something of a wild-card, Maye will definitely be chipping in more rushing production than either NFC quarterback.
Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are a tandem, with Henderson the shiny new second-round pick, but the veteran looks a lot better right now. He's had a 60-40 edge in playing time both playoff games, and also averaged over 2 more yards per carry in each: 10 for 53 and 16 for 70 versus 9 for 27 and 12 for 25. Henderson averaged half a yard more during the season (5.1 versus 4.6) and had 50 more carries and 308 more yards, but Stevenson is the leader at the moment. He's also been the more involved receiver (7 for 86 versus 2 for 7) after they split that production during the season. Henderson is maybe more likely to contribute a breakaway run at some point, but he was really bottled up by Houston and would likely need to make an impact on fewer touches.
Denver ranked 2nd in run defense during the season but doesn't look that good at the moment. Green Bay had success (115 yards, TD) in one of the Broncos' last two meaningful games during the season, while the Bills were running Denver out of the building in the first half on Sunday (James Cook finished with 117 yards on 24 carries). New England ranked 6th in rushing during the season and averaged 126 in its first two playoff games. With what the passing game should be doing and the quarterback needing to be accounted for as a running threat, the ground game should also be chipping in some production.
Mack Hollins (abdomen) is eligible to return from IR for this game, but Mike Vrabel was noncommittal on Monday and he seems unlikely to be available. Even if he were to suit up, more likely the top 2 will be Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte, each of whom had pretty remarkable touchdown catches against Houston last week. Diggs was the busiest target, averaging 5 catches for 60 yards, with 4 TDs. Boutte was primarily a scoring threat for a lot of the year (just 1-2 catches in more than half his games, but with 6 touchdowns) but has caught 7 passes for an average of 71 yards in the two playoff games, with last week's one-handed touchdown grab. One of the two (probably Diggs) will be seeing a lot of Patrick Surtain, but the Bills put a pair of receivers over 75 yards last week and there will be some passing stats in this one.
New England's other wide receivers are hard to make a case for. DeMario Douglas had the fourth-down touchdown to start the scoring a week ago, but just one other catch; he averaged under 2 receptions per week during the season, with 3 touchdowns. Kyle Williams and Efton Chism have each played about a third of the snaps in each playoff game. Each caught one pass against the Chargers and none last week (Chism wasn't targeted). Williams caught 3 TDs from outside 30 yards this year, making him a reasonable candidate to maybe hit on a big play at some point. But don't look for volume (just 7 other catches all season).
Hunter Henry has potential in this matchup. The Broncos allowed as many touchdowns to tight ends (6) as wide receivers during the season, and last week allowed a big game to Dalton Kincaid (6 for 83, TD), while Dawson Knox was open for what would have been a game-winning touchdown at the end of regulation. Henry led New England with 7 receiving scores, and went for 64 yards and a score in the playoff win over the Chargers. Just 1 reception last week, however, and that was a Houston defense similarly vulnerable to tight ends (8 TDs) compared to wideouts (10). But Henry went into that one averaging 4 catches and 51 yards over his previous four, with 3 TDs, so he looks like a reasonable option. Definitely more of a featured target than starters for the other three teams still playing. Austin Hooper has a total of 6 receptions in his last seven games.
Denver's bend-but-not-break defense makes for an excellent situation for Andres Borregales. The Broncos allowed 37 field goals during the season, which was not only 2nd-most in the league but at least 10 more than any of the other three teams still playing. Matt Prater kicked 3 last week, same as Borregales kicked in the first playoff game (granted, none last week, but Houston allowed a league-low 18 field goals during the season, half as many as Denver).
The Patriots Defense wouldn't have looked too good against Bo Nix, with him taking just 22 sacks during the season and none last week on 46 pass attempts. But instead they'll face Jarrett Stidham, who hasn't thrown a pass the last two seasons and in four starts for the Raiders and Broncos prior to that took 13 sacks while throwing 4 interceptions. The offense will probably be as buttoned-up as Denver can managed, but New England will reasonably be trying to put the game in the hands of the backup quarterback. This defense's numbers weren't great during the season (35 sacks and 19 takeaways) but they've been somewhat more productive the last two weeks (9 sacks, 6 takeaways) and might have some insight into Stidham's tendencies, with him having played for Patriots OC Josh McDaniels in the past. New England also has excellent return teams.
Tomorrow: Denver Broncos.
--Andy Richardson