I will be interested to see where Justin Jefferson goes in drafts. He’s been a reliable, elite receiver, but he wasn’t good last year.
The track record is impressive. He was lousy last year and missed almost half of the 2023 season with a hamstring injury, but Jefferson has averaged 107 catches for 1,590 yards and 9 TDs in his other four seasons. In PPR leagues, he ranked 6th, 4th, 1st and 3rd among wide receivers in those years.
Kevin O’Connell knows how to put together a passing game, and Jefferson will be their featured guy, making another one of those situations look like a possibility.
But they’ve got to figure out the quarterback position. J.J. McCarthy was pretty awful last year. Bad enough, it seems, that they’ll need to bring in a viable second option to guard against the possibility that he’s simply not what they were hoping for. Signing someone like Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers or Daniel Jones would make a lot of sense.
Jones seems like a better fit with Minnesota than with most other teams. He was with them late in 2024, and they had interest in bringing him back last year. Jones (Achilles) might not be ready for the start of training camp, but that might fit well with giving McCarthy an opportunity to turn things around.
With Jefferson, his other troubling issue has been a lack of effectiveness around the goal line. He’s been a great downfield receiver, but they haven’t been able to get him the ball consistently in that more-crowded part of the field.
While it’s easy to put the blame on McCarthy, Jefferson also wasn’t good in that area of the field the previous three years. Not with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and not with Sam Darnold.
Over the past four years, 30 wide receivers have seen at least 20 targets inside the 10-yard line. Only one of those receivers has caught a lower percentage of the passes thrown his way in that part of the field, or scored on a lower percentage of targets.
Jefferson in the last four years has seen 48 targets inside the 10 (3rd-most among wide receivers), but he’s caught only 16 of them, with only 10 touchdowns.
My general lean is that the Vikings will figure things out. Jefferson is a good player, and talent will tend to ascend. But I don’t think he’ll be higher on my board than where he’s at on typical draft lists.
| WIDE RECEIVERS INSIDE THE 10 (last 4 yrs) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '25 | Player | Tgt | Com | Pct | TD | TD% |
| G.B. | Romeo Doubs | 21 | 14 | 66.7% | 12 | 57.1% |
| T.B. | Mike Evans | 22 | 11 | 50.0% | 11 | 50.0% |
| Ind. | Michael Pittman | 25 | 17 | 68.0% | 12 | 48.0% |
| Cin. | Tee Higgins | 29 | 14 | 48.3% | 13 | 44.8% |
| Hou. | Nico Collins | 30 | 15 | 50.0% | 13 | 43.3% |
| Jac. | Jakobi Meyers | 26 | 15 | 57.7% | 11 | 42.3% |
| Det. | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 55 | 35 | 63.6% | 23 | 41.8% |
| Chi. | DJ Moore | 24 | 16 | 66.7% | 10 | 41.7% |
| N.E. | Stefon Diggs | 28 | 16 | 57.1% | 11 | 39.3% |
| LAR | Davante Adams | 65 | 33 | 50.8% | 25 | 38.5% |
| Balt. | DeAndre Hopkins | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 8 | 38.1% |
| Phi. | A.J. Brown | 24 | 12 | 50.0% | 9 | 37.5% |
| Atl. | Drake London | 35 | 16 | 45.7% | 13 | 37.1% |
| LAC | Keenan Allen | 33 | 15 | 45.5% | 12 | 36.4% |
| Cin. | Ja'Marr Chase | 25 | 12 | 48.0% | 9 | 36.0% |
| Min. | Jordan Addison | 23 | 14 | 60.9% | 8 | 34.8% |
| Pitt. | Adam Thielen | 23 | 13 | 56.5% | 8 | 34.8% |
| Sea. | Cooper Kupp | 26 | 14 | 53.8% | 9 | 34.6% |
| LAR | Puka Nacua | 21 | 13 | 61.9% | 7 | 33.3% |
| Mia. | Tyreek Hill | 33 | 17 | 51.5% | 11 | 33.3% |
| Pitt. | DK Metcalf | 31 | 11 | 35.5% | 10 | 32.3% |
| K.C. | Rashee Rice | 26 | 17 | 65.4% | 8 | 30.8% |
| T.B. | Chris Godwin | 30 | 16 | 53.3% | 9 | 30.0% |
| G.B. | Christian Watson | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 6 | 30.0% |
| Was. | Deebo Samuel | 22 | 14 | 63.6% | 6 | 27.3% |
| Den. | Courtland Sutton | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 8 | 26.7% |
| Dall. | CeeDee Lamb | 33 | 15 | 45.5% | 8 | 24.2% |
| NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 33 | 14 | 42.4% | 8 | 24.2% |
| Min. | Justin Jefferson | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 10 | 20.8% |
| Dall. | George Pickens | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 4 | 16.7% |
On the list, by the way, note that the two wide receivers who’ve scored touchdowns on at least half of their targets inside the 10 are both free agents – under-the-radar Romeo Doubs and Mike Evans. Two of the bottom four are currently rostered by Dallas, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (though with Pickens, he spent three of the last four seasons with Pittsburgh).
—Ian Allan
